Iran’s every move will be closely scrutinized by the international community now that sanctions have been lifted over its nuclear program, providing Iran access to tens of billions of dollars in frozen assets.
Over the weekend, the International Atomic Energy Agency certified that Iran had completed all the requirements stipulated in the nuclear deal: reducing its uranium stockpile by 98 percent; dismantling two-thirds of its centrifuges capable of enriching uranium for a bomb; and disabling its heavy water reactor in Arak thereby eliminating Iran’s ability to produce weapons grade plutonium. International economic sanctions imposed on Iran for its renegade nuclear program will be terminated.
The question now is whether this marks a new era for Iranian cooperation internationally, and more specifically, with the United States. It’s hard to say, but some think it certainly was a secondary intent of the nuclear agreement. “That is part of the structure of the deal: basically make it worth their while to continue behaving well, so to speak,” Adam Smith, a former Treasury Department official, told The Cipher Brief. Smith added, “That is certainly the goal, but the jury is out on whether or not that will work.”
There clearly has been enhanced dialogue between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, which may have facilitated the prisoner exchange agreement leading to the release this past weekend of four Americans detained by Iran. In remarks from Vienna on Saturday, Kerry said, “There is no question that the pace and the progress of the humanitarian talks accelerated in light of the relationships forged and the diplomatic channels unlocked over the course of the nuclear talks.”
And that progress was visible last week after Iranian military forces seized ten American sailors whose boat had inadvertently ventured into Iranian waters in the Persian Gulf. The sailors were released within 24 hours following numerous phone conversations between Kerry and Zarif.
But the level of mistrust is still omnipresent. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader made that quite clear in comments published by Iranian news agencies. "I reiterate the need to be vigilant about the deceit and treachery of arrogant countries, especially the United States, in this (nuclear) issue and other issues," said Khamenei.
And U.S. President Barack Obama had no illusions that the road ahead would be smooth. “We recognize that there remain profound differences between the United States and Iran,” Obama said during remarks on Sunday. “We still have sanctions on Iran for its violations of human rights, for its support of terrorism, and for its ballistic missile program.”
In fact this weekend, the U.S. imposed new sanctions on Iran—a response to Iran testing a ballistic missile in October— shortly after the release of the four detained Americans. That action did not sit well with the Iranians. Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan told the Fars News Agency that the new sanctions will not impede Iran. "We will prove it in practice by unveiling new missile achievements," Dehghan vowed.
Some, however, question the resolve of the Obama Administration in pushing Iran to behave better, pointing to the three-month delay in penalizing Iran for its ballistic missile test. Mathew Levitt, a former senior Treasury Department official in the Bush Administration, told The Cipher Brief, “A closer look at the interplay between these developments—implementation of the Iran deal, the delayed imposition of new sanctions, and the release of detained Americans—underscores the uncertainty surrounding the administration’s commitment to enforcing its pledge to “use all our available tools, including sanctions, to counter Iran's menacing behavior.”
The Iranian government has its own internal challenges. President Hassan Rouhani ran on a pledge to end the nuclear sanctions. Now that has happened. Will Rouhani’s success spill over and help his more moderate cause when two important elections occur next month. One is for Parliament and the other for the Assembly of Experts, who are responsible for choosing the next supreme leader. Ayatollah Khameini is 77 years old and has had health issues. Whether he is eventually replaced with a like minded hard liner or someone more in line with Rouhani’s relatively moderate approach would determine the direction of the country.
In the near term, however, Iran’s role is critical in resolving regional conflicts in Syria, Yemen, and against the Islamic State (ISIS). The recent flare-up of tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia—the two competing, Mideast powerhouses—could jeopardize regional cooperation. Following the execution of a prominent Shite cleric by the Sunni Saudi government, the Saudi embassy in Tehran was attacked, leading the Saudis to cut off relations with predominately Shia Iran.
However, former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, James Smith, doubts this latest controversy will lead to a broader conflict. “While the possibility of a “Guns of August” scenario is possible (conflict often takes on a character of its own), that possibility is less likely than a continued slow simmer in the strain,” Smith said. He added, “Iran and Saudi Arabia share many common interests and challenges that are likely to pull them together.”
Whether Iran continues to participate and play a constructive role in the efforts to end the civil wars in Syria and Yemen, and help defeat ISIS will be telling signs for the U.S., the region and the international community as a whole about future Iranian engagement. But the U.S. will also be closely watching how Iran invests the billions of dollars it now has access to following the completion of the nuclear deal. Will it be used to build its crumbling economy and infrastructure, or will Iran continue to finance terrorist groups and ballistic missile programs. And of course there will be an ever vigilant eye to make sure Iran lives up to its commitments as part of the nuclear deal.
Pam Benson is the Managing Editor for News at The Cipher Brief.
