A Gloomy Prospect for Real Negotiation

A negotiated peace settlement in Afghanistan in 2016 is unlikely. Negotiations have succeeded in other insurgencies when each side determined that victory was not possible and that a significant portion of their goals could be achieved through negotiations.  That situation does not currently exist in Afghanistan.

Since the public acknowledgement of the death of Taliban leader Mullah Omar, his successor, Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor, has gained control over a majority of the movement.  Still, Mansoor must deal with leadership challenges from several splinter groups while keeping others, like the deadly Haqqani movement and Hezb-e Islami, with him.  Additionally, the Islamic State has created a small but growing presence in Afghanistan that acts as a natural rallying point for disaffected Taliban who reject Mansoor.  Sharp fighting has taken place between Mansoor’s mainstream Taliban and the Islamic State.  Generally, Mansoor still does not command as unified a Taliban movement as existed in the past.