Attacks like these are disrupting U.S. efforts to end the conflict and ease the humanitarian crisis in the country. U.S. Special Envoy Tim Lenderking was expected to meet with Houthi leaders earlier this month, but has said that he will return to the region when the group is ready to talk.
The Cipher Brief tapped expert Norman T. Roule to put the latest attacks in perspective and to better explain the regional dynamics that are driving conflict in Yemen.
Norman T. Roule, Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI
Norman T. Roule served for 34-years in the Central Intelligence Agency, managing numerous programs relating to Iran and the Middle East. He also served as the National Intelligence Manager for Iran (NIM-I) at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence from November 2008 until September 2017.
The Cipher Brief: How would you describe the current state of play in Yemen, particularly as fighting has recently escalated in the northeastern province and Houthis have been launching near-daily drone and missile attacks against Saudi Arabia?
Roule: I am not sure the Saudi announcement will have a major impact on the Yemen conflict in the near term, despite the best hopes of all involved. But the announcement reinforces what the Saudis, the U.S., the UK, and the United Nations have been attempting via diplomacy for several years. Further, a ceasefire is, in itself, an important humanitarian step as it ends the violence. This offer should also improve the image of the Arab coalition in general and Saudi Arabia in particular. But to understand this proposal, you first need to consider how past efforts played out.
First, the Saudis have already announced multiple ceasefires and the Houthis responded with continued missile and drone attacks on the Kingdom. Since 2011 – several years before the fall of Sana to the Houthis – diplomatic talks have taken place with the Houthis from Kuwait to Oman. The Houthis either rejected political settlements or failed to execute their obligations. Iran has refused to end its military support and has paid no price for its continued provision of weapons in violation of UN Security Council resolutions.
Second, and perhaps more to the point, what does peace look like in Yemen? Yemen’s various non-Houthi actors continue to defy efforts to unite for the sake of their country and instead appear to be a mosaic of competing factions.
Last, but certainly not least, Yemen’s population continues to suffer, despite an outpouring of billions of dollars of international aid. A generation of Yemenis is being consumed in this conflict. Until the Houthis cease to use Yemen’s population as a shield, I am not sanguine the humanitarian situation will improve.
The Cipher Brief: Is there anything in the Saudi announcement that you believe will be especially problematic?
Roule: I wonder how they will handle the issue of flights from Sana airport. When describing Iranian support to the Houthis (or other proxies), focus is generally given to efforts in Yemen itself. Sometimes, the most important part of Iran’s support may be found in multi-month training within Iran itself at Revolutionary Guard facilities.
We should recall that in 2014, Tehran arranged as many as 28 flights a week to Sana, a channel Iran used to expand its military support for the Houthis. The UN reported that the 2015 “mercy flights” were used by the Houthis and Iran to transport personnel to and from Iran for military training.
The Cipher Brief: What obstacles need to be overcome to make this latest effort a success?
Roule: The Houthis generally make concessions following battlefield failures and international pressure that impacts their finances. The international community rightfully agrees that there is no military solution to this conflict but has also recoiled from offensive military support to coalition action against the Houthis. Although military action was undertaken aggressively against ISIS and the Taliban, the narrative that such actions fatally compromise humanitarian efforts seems to have been applied more comprehensively in Yemen.
The international community has little leverage over the Houthis and aid groups rightly worry that harsh criticism of the Houthis could result in Houthi constraints on their already difficult humanitarian work. Unwilling to engage militarily, there seems to be little the international community can do to halt the Houthis use of aid and local revenues to sustain their war machine and tribal alliances.
For example, the UN recently reported that the Houthis diverted $1.8 billion from a fund meant to support civil servants and other government operations to sustain Houthi operations. In fairness, the government of Yemen has also been accused by the UN of engaging in money-laundering and corrupt practices that consumed around $400 million in aid. So, more work needs to be done to ensure funds reach the Yemeni people and not the pockets of corrupt officials or warlords.
We also have yet to see the various Yemeni non-Houthi actors come together. The UN and regional countries have attempted to engage these elements, but until they achieve greater success, peace will be elusive.
Last, there seems to be little international appetite to compel Iran to cease its involvement in the conflict. The desire to restore the nuclear deal continues to dominate any approach to Iran.
The Cipher Brief: Saudi Arabia’s proposal this week was quickly dismissed by the Houthi rebels. What is your sense of the Houthi strategy?
Roule: The Houthi rejection of the Saudi peace proposal wasn’t a surprise. They tend to reject proposals, especially those that might empower the legitimate Government of Yemen, but not further negotiations. This strategy provides them with the possibility that the international community will make more concessions while the Houthis seek to improve their on-the-ground military posture. Diplomatic engagement tends to discourage robust military action while also offering an opportunity for Iran to increase its voice on Yemen’s future.
Quiet diplomatic initiatives on Yemen – lately via Oman – have been ongoing for several years. If you speak to any of the Gulf leaders who engage the Houthis, you will hear of their frustration in dealing with the group. The Houthis may not be under Iran’s absolute control, but they do apparently coordinate with Tehran and do not deviate from actions that protect Iran’s equities. The Houthis also suffer from factionalism and this also hampers its decision-making.
Unilateral cease fire proposals by the coalition are also not new. This may well be the fifth or six unilateral cease fire announced by Riyadh. One lasted for six weeks and another for around 100 days. The Houthis invariably fired on the Kingdom’s civilian sites or Yemeni government positions during these cease fires.
The Cipher Brief: How was the Saudi proposal received internationally? What does this tell us?
Roule: The U.S., the United Nations and Arab countries quickly endorsed the proposal. Iran joined the Houthis in denouncing the Saudi announcement as insufficient.
I think the above tells us that neither the international community nor Iran will change their posture towards the war to date.
The Cipher Brief: If the Houthis continue to reject the deal, what steps could the International Community take to bring about an end to the fighting there that is likely to get worse quickly with so many on the verge of famine?
Roule: There is no magic solution. The only quick options will be to pass the country to Houthi domination or to provide the support needed to punish the Houthis and Iran sufficiently so that they are willing to compromise. Neither are likely. Diplomacy will continue but it is hard to see how it will succeed in the current dynamic.
The Cipher Brief: What can you say about international aid to Yemen?
Roule: Humanitarian concerns regarding Yemen are real and serious. About 80 percent of Yemenis rely on humanitarian assistance and the specter of a historic famine stalks the country. But important humanitarian work has been underway and those involved deserve the world’s thanks.
Despite challenging circumstances and competing regional demands, the international community has been responsive. The Biden administration just announced that it would provide an additional $191 million in assistance to Yemen this year, bringing the total for U.S. aid to Yemen in recent years to more than $3.4 billion. Arab countries have been generous. The Saudis have provided about $16 billion and the UAE has provided over $6 billion in aid in the last five years. Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain have also provided significant assistance. The scale and success of the hundreds of aid projects funded by this aid deserves more praise.
Unfortunately, international willingness to contribute appears to be flagging. A recent UN aid conference produced only half of the aid needed to maintain operations and some donors are late in meeting existing aid commitment. Strained budgets, competing demands, and anger over corruption and Houthi diversion of funds have shaped donor views.
The Cipher Brief: What is known about the current level of Iran’s involvement in the conflict?
Roule: Tehran’s involvement mirrors its actions in other regional countries. For Iran, Yemen is a relatively inexpensive way to bleed the Saudis, enhance their regional influence, and gain power projection on the Red Sea. Much as in Syria and Iraq, Iran’s actions have extended the conflict, fueled factionalism, and exacerbated the suffering of innocents. The Saudis have collected and displayed literally tons of Iranian weaponry in the conflict. This includes missiles, drones, mines, and speedboats. Iranian vessels – such as the Savis – are also suspect of bringing weapons directly to the Houthis. The U.S. and other countries argue that Iran has sent military personnel, as well as Lebanese and Iraqi Hezbollah members to enhance Houthi military operations. Tehran’s ambassador to Sana is reportedly a former IRGC official who has worked to enhance Houthi military effectiveness.
Iran generally denies direct involvement in the conflict although its leaders increasingly drop hints of military support and Iran’s media operations also appear closely synchronized with Houthi counterparts. This profile matches how they handled their intervention in Syria.
The Cipher Brief: What are the U.S. interests in this conflict and why should the U.S. play a larger role at a time when it is shifting attention toward Asia?
Roule: The U.S. and the international community have deep interests in Yemen for many reasons. A quick list would include the following:
- Our willingness to protect millions of Yemenis from famine and violence defines us as a people.
- The Yemeni government has been displaced by a group that advocates violence, the destruction of Israel, the oppression of women, and solidarity with Iran. Our commitment to the international principles of collective defense require that we stand with the legitimate government of Yemen. The recent Houthi attacks on Marib included missile attacks on a peaceful and prosperous city that hosts hundreds of thousands of displaced persons.
- We must also stand with the Saudi people to assist their defense. Failure to do so would damage a historic partnership and send a terrible message to partners and adversaries around the world.
- Houthi missiles and drones pose a lethal threat to tens of thousands of Americans and billions in U.S. property within Saudi Arabia. Protection of these interests represents the primary responsibility of our government.
- The location of Yemen touches multiple critical issues because of its ability to influence the transit of oil and goods through the Bab al Mandab Strait. This geography has drawn great powers for decades and Iran is eager to exploit this potential.
- Extremism in Yemen represents a threat to East Africa where ISIS and al-Qaeda are already building a presence. We need to continue operations against these groups within Yemen.
- We also need to be part of the effort to deal with the decaying floating oil storage and offloading facility (the former supertanker SAFER) off Yemen’s port of Ras Isa. In the absence of maintenance, the vessel threatens to spill an estimated 1.15 million barrels of crude oil into the Red Sea. The environmental damage following such a calamity would be unparalleled and would impact the lives of 30 million people and destroy fishing areas used by almost two million Yemenis. The United Nations has attempted to respond to this threat, but the Houthis have rebuffed these efforts, to include banning any American or British experts from a role in the operation.
The Cipher Brief: What do we know of Houthi attacks on the Kingdom?
Roule: With U.S. assistance, Saudi Arabia has defended its citizens and foreign nationals from an extraordinary array of military attacks unprecedented in modern times. By any measure, their air defense systems are now unfortunately among the most experienced – and successful - in the world. Just consider a few numbers. The Houthis have fired more than 357 missiles, 558 armed drones, 64 drone boats and more than 94 thousand random projectiles against Saudi civilian sites, to include airports, border villages, commercial vessels, and oil facilities. About 50 missiles and drones have been fired against civilian centers in the Kingdom since mid-February alone. Much of this technology comes from Iran. The scale and frequency of these attacks is often lost in the day’s news.
The success of the Saudis and other coalition members defending against these attacks is notable, just as the Houthi’s increasing use of Iran-supplied technology against civilian targets should worry us all. What happens if the Houthis impact desalination plants? Or an airport, aircraft, or compound occupied by Saudis as well as nationals of other countries? It is hard not to think that our failure to address this threat doesn’t risk a disaster, perhaps even the regional conventional conflict we seek to avoid. As I consider the international community’s inattention to this issue, I am reminded of Henry Kissinger’s comment that “competing pressures tempt one to believe that an issue deferred is a problem avoided; more often it is a crisis invited.”
The Cipher Brief: What do you think will happen if the Iranians achieve a “catastrophic success” in one of their attacks?
Roule: Although punishing military action against the Houthis will be the immediate response, at some point, Saudi citizens will ask their leadership why Iran is able to inflict such attacks on the Kingdom without paying a cost. Why isn’t Iran made to feel the same pain that they endure,” they may well ask. If this pressure overwhelms Western calls for de-escalation, we could see a drone or special forces conflict in the region in which each side “messages” the other through a series of attributable, but deniable attacks against shipping and infrastructure targets.
The Cipher Brief: International humanitarian organizations decried the use of military action. What exactly should the international community do in this conflict militarily?
Roule: You are correct. The tension between humanitarian organizations and coalition military commanders regarding Yemen has been a constant. In fairness to the latter, similar humanitarian concerns have not prevented major campaigns in Iraq, Syria, or Afghanistan. This makes me think that a workable solution can be found to sufficiently satisfy the requirements of each, if not completely, then at least to the point where each can execute their core duties. Inevitably though, military action will impact civilians. Those who believe this can be avoided should look at scenes of Raqqa or Mosul following their liberation from ISIS.
In terms of what the United States should do to help, I think any of the following steps would be useful.
- Support United Nations and other humanitarian efforts:
The humanitarian work being done in Yemen is nothing short of heroic. Europe, Saudi Arabia, and other Arab countries have multiple programs underway that would benefit from support. Restoring basic infrastructure, expanding landmine removal efforts, and rebuilding the lives of child soldiers deserve more attention. The Houthis have recruited thousands of child soldiers. The Saudis launched a rehabilitation program that has worked with 500 child soldiers to date, but the scale of this problem requires a broader program. The Houthis have also laid an estimated one million mines in the greatest mine-laying campaign the world has seen in years. Saudi and Yemeni de-mining teams have already cleared 500,000 landmines but these poorly-marked mine fields have killed and wounded hundreds of Yemenis and will continue to do so unless this program receives more international support.
- Accelerate efforts by Arab states to broker unity among Yemen’s various non-Houthi groups. The 2019 Riyadh Agreement between the Yemeni government and the Southern Transition Council raised hopes but failed to produce the unity Yemen needs. Achieving success here won’t be easy, but a sustained Arab-led effort would be useful. This would also sustain the influence of Yemen’s legitimate government whose equities are too often overlooked.
- Work with the European Union to certify Arab coalition offensive operations standards: The international community routinely criticizes the military actions of the Arab coalition. Some of this criticism was likely warranted early in the conflict, but there is no evidence that current operations aren’t being conducted according to international military standards.
It would be useful if the coalition’s protocols could be observed and certified by a neutral voice. The U.S. should form a small group of neutral European military actors to perform this role.
- Resume some offensive military support: The decision to halt offensive support to the coalition was well-meant but needs reconsideration. Is it really our position that we won’t provide actionable intelligence and precision weapons to enable coalition aircraft to destroy missile firing sites with minimal risk to civilians? Do we think that because we withhold such support the coalition will simply allow these sites to keep firing missiles into the Kingdom untouched? Provision of such support must go together with the need for outside observers of coalition offensive protocols.
- Encourage punishment of Iran for its involvement in the conflict:
The failure of the international community to respond to Iran’s intervention is the weakest since its silence to the German and Italian involvement in the Spanish Civil War in the 1930s. The current response profile involves diplomatic complaints which Iran denies. Until Iran faces actual diplomatic and economic isolation that touches hardliner equities, its decisionmakers will see no reason not to continue this malign support.
Engaging Iran diplomatically to gain its support to end the conflict is attractive, but proponents should be asked what evidence exists that this will be productive. Iran used its diplomatic engagement with the international community on Syria to buy time for Qods Force operations and to block action against Asad.
The Cipher Brief: Any closing thoughts?
Roule: The fight against ISIS and al-Qaeda in Yemen has continued successfully in recent years. This is a testimony to the success of the US/UK security partnership with the Yemeni government, the Saudis, and the United Arab Emirates. Partner successes have been notable, and no one wants these operations to stop. In 2019, Saudi special forces captured the leader of the Yemeni branch of ISIS, Abu Osama al-Muhajer, as well as the organization’s finance official. This happened at the same time the Arab coalition liberated a portion of Yemeni territory from the control of al-Qaeda. The success of these operations demonstrated that Saudi and Emirati personnel can execute complicated operations against regional terrorists.
Read more expert-driven national security news, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief
