SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — During the first week of April, The Cipher Brief traveled with a delegation of national security and military experts led by former CIA Director General David Petraeus (Ret.) to Ukraine.
While there, we met with a number of current and former senior officials in the Government of Ukraine (GoU), including; the National Security Advisor of Ukraine, the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (FISU), the head of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Service (HUR), the Ukrainian Minister of Defense, the leadership team of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), deputies of the Ukrainian Parliament, including the heads of the Foreign Relations Committee, Anti-Corruption Committee, Ukrainian military commanders, the Speaker of Parliament, and, head of the Economics Committee.
We also met with parliamentarians representing opposition parties, representatives of the Ukrainian business community, The U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine and the Embassy Country Team, representatives from Ukrainian Energy provider DTEK, Ukrainian and Foreign business leaders and members from the U.S Chamber of Commerce.
The visit took place at a critical time for both the future of Ukrainian independence, U.S. – Ukrainian bilateral relations, and the status and influence of the U.S. not only in Europe, but internationally.
My notes on Ukraine:
- After two plus years of heavy fighting against Russian Forces that conducted their large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are exhausted and running dangerously low on ammunition and weapon systems. In particular, the Ukrainians are in great need of air support, air defense systems and resupply of ammunition to continue successfully operating already available air defense capabilities, artillery systems and Electronic Warfare capabilities.
- During our visit, the President of Ukraine signed into law changes to the conscription age of Ukrainian males, lowering the age from 27 to 25 in order to ensure effective force generation and allow for the rotation of Ukrainian forces who have been fighting on the frontlines for two years. This step was extremely difficult for the GoU given resistance of some members of Ukrainian society to the idea of sending their sons to war. Multiple interlocutors noted that Ukrainians were much more motivated to join the armed resistance to the Russian invasion when the U.S. and its allies were actively providing weapons and other critical support. But with the cessation of U.S. assistance, many Ukrainians are hesitant to enter into military service given concerns that they will not have the equipment and supplies needed to defend their country and themselves from Russia attacks.
- The majority of our interlocutors noted that the Russians were planning to conduct a new offensive in the spring or summer of 2024. Several key interlocutors warned that without resupply of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Ukrainian forces along the front will be hard pressed to stop Moscow from seizing more Ukrainian territory. Most of the Ukrainians we spoke with stressed that they will continue to resist Moscow’s assault on their sovereignty and independence but are concerned that without the receipt of much needed supplies they will be hard pressed to defend against the Russian onslaught.
- Ukraine’s lack of air assets remains a significant problem. Several Ukrainian officials noted that the Russians have been flying 300 – 600 tactical air sorties against Ukrainian positions along the front and using GLIDE munitions to target Ukrainian positions. The Ukrainians are unable to intercept/destroy incoming GLIDE munitions and assess that the only effective way to eliminate this threat to their forces is by developing the capability to target and destroy Russian aircraft behind Russian lines before they can release their munitions. To date, the Russians have used the GLIDE munitions against military and civilian targets and the inability of Ukrainian forces to stop these attacks is having a demoralizing impact on Ukrainian forces and the Ukrainian population.
- It remains unclear when the Ukrainian Armed Forces will receive delivery of promised F-16 aircraft from the Government of the Netherlands. However, key interlocutors in the Defense Sector stressed that even after receipt of these systems, the GoU will need additional training for pilots and maintenance crews and understand that these weapon systems will be a high priority target for Russian forces. There is also concern that the F16s will not be effective at engaging Tactical Russian Aircraft operating in the immediate zone of conflict along the Front and the Ukrainians are working to obtain additional air assets that will expand their capacity to respond to a range of Russian threats.
- One interlocutor advised that Ukrainian estimates indicate that North Korea has provided Russia with 10 million rounds of Artillery munitions. Iranian manufactured and supplied attack Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) continue to be used extensively by the Russians to target Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and non-military targets. While the U.S. delays delivery of assistance to Kyiv, Russia’s allies in Pyongyang and Tehran are actively providing direct support to the Russians.
- As of early April 2024, Russian strikes have damaged or destroyed 80 percent of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Per some statistics, the Russians have conducted 8,000 missile strikes against civilian targets and 4,000 UAV attacks against non-military targets and 60 percent of all Russian air attacks are conducted against non-military objectives, with the goal of terrorizing Ukraine into submission. The Ukrainian President has made it a priority to rebuild the country’s energy infrastructure before the return of cold weather in the autumn of 2024, but some experts in the Energy industry warn that rebuilding parts of the Energy Grid without the ability of Kyiv to defend strategic sites from Russian air attacks will result in the Russians again targeting and destroying rebuilt infrastructure.
- The Ukrainians are looking to diversify their sources of energy production and want to modernize their energy infrastructure. Despite the war, President Zelenskyy has committed to work to lower carbon emissions in line with pre-war commitments made by Kyiv, and the government is working to increase access to solar and wind energy sources.
- Between February 2022 and winter of 2023, the Ukrainians effectively employed U.S. and indigenously made Air Defense systems to counter Russian air attacks. For example, as of the fall of 2023, Ukrainian Air Defense units operating American-made PATRIOT missile batteries were destroying a large percentage of incoming Russian projectiles. To protect the civilian population and critical infrastructure of the country, the GoU has been forced to place the majority of its limited numbers of Air Defense systems in positions away from the front lines near civilian population centers and key parts of the Energy grid. This has left Ukrainian fighting units vulnerable to attacks and with Ukraine’s supply of munitions needed to operate the Air Defense system. The Russians have had more success striking civilian targets in recent months. The provisions of additional Air Defense capabilities by the U.S. in the past has saved countless numbers of lives, but the failure to sustain support for the GoU in this area is resulting in unnecessary civilian deaths and heavy losses by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the battlefield.
- While the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to effectively develop innovative means to counter the Russians and exploit new technology to support their operations, the Russians have greatly improved their own capabilities since February 2022. One UAV expert reported that while the Ukrainians maintain a slight edge in the development and employment of UAVs to conduct lethal operations, the Russians have quickly learned from early mistakes in their aggression against Kyiv, have reverse engineered technology used by the Ukrainians and are quickly catching up to the Ukrainians in the use of UAVs on the battlefield. Without continued support from the U.S. and West, the Ukrainians will face serious challenges in competing with the Russians in the development and deployment of UAV systems.
- The Russians have been able to effectively employ Radio Electronic Warfare systems to neutralize some Ukrainian weapons systems that were initially very effectively employed during the start of the war. Jamming of Radars and Command and Control systems has created challenges for the Ukrainians on the battlefield. The Ukrainians are in need of their own Radio Electronic Warfare capabilities and require assistance from the U.S. and other European countries. Provision of these systems is critical to not only protecting Ukrainian forces, but Ukraine’s civilian population as well.
Watch former senior CIA Officer Paul Kolbe's Dispatch from Kyiv on The Cipher Brief's Digital Channel
- After initially suffering significant setbacks in intelligence collection and operations at the start of the expanded war, Russian Intelligence and Security Services have recovered quickly and have shown great improvement in their operations. Russian operations remain aggressive and are growing increasingly effective.
- The Russians are pursuing an aggressive, and effective, covert influence/active measures campaign against Kyiv and are working to exploit the perception that the U.S. has abandoned Ukraine by not providing additional military and financial support. Some Ukrainian officials noted that the Kremlin has allocated a large amount of resources to conducting aggressive disinformation and covert and overt influence operations against the Ukrainian population, Ukrainian decision makers, the Ukrainian Armed Forces and targets in the West, including the U.S.
- Per several Ukrainian officials, Moscow is not ready to discuss peace negotiations or a cessation of hostilities at this time. Instead, President Putin is focused on conducting a major new offensive, capturing more territory from Ukrainian forces with the possible intention of negotiating with Kyiv and the West from a position of strength.
- While six months ago, many of the same interlocutors insisted that Ukraine would not stop fighting until all of the country’s 1991 borders were restored and every centimeter of their territory was recovered from the Russians, during this visit, several admitted that Kyiv may be forced to consider a negotiated settlement that would leave some of their territory in Moscow’s control. However, they claimed that for Kyiv to support such an approach, the U.S. and NATO would need to provide some form of guarantee that they would protect Ukraine from future Russian aggression. The Ukrainians expect that Russia will eventually violate a ceasefire as they did in Chechnya in the 1990s, and Ukraine after 2014, and without Ukrainian membership in NATO or some other form of Western guarantee of the country’s protection, they cannot agree to a ceasefire. One interlocutor opined that Ukraine will need to ensure that the country is stable and secure for at least two generations after any end in fighting to recover from the damage caused by Russia’s invasion.
- Multiple contacts warned that when the current one million Ukrainian soldiers fighting on the front return home from the war, the country will face significant social and political challenges. These troops are currently receiving a monthly salary of 3,000 Euros per month but once back in civilian life, will likely receive no more than 500 Euros per month salary. Many current Commanders will return home to lower-level jobs and a lack of authority and the Armed Forces will not be able to promote or reward all commanders. The Ukrainians also expect to face significant Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) related challenges and the country currently does not have the infrastructure or professional capacity to deal with these issues. Large numbers of wounded fighters will also require a significant amount of assistance for their effective rehabilitation and re-integration into society. Without future assistance from the U.S. and the West, it is unlikely that Kyiv will be able to manage these challenges.
- While Kyiv’s Spring/Summer offensive in 2023 did not achieve great success and in several points along the front the Russians have re-seized the initiative, the Ukrainians have achieved some significant successes on the battlefield. First, the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Security Services have effectively used UAVs and Special Operations forces to target the Russian Black Sea fleet, forcing the Russians to move naval assets from Sevastopol to Novorossyk and other parts of the Black Sea that are out of reach of the Ukrainian strikes. This, in turn has allowed Kyiv to reopen some maritime trade corridors on the Black Sea and increase the export of Agricultural products critical to sustain the Ukrainian economy.
- The Ukrainians have also started to conduct air strikes against Russian targets deep inside of Russian territory with a negative impact on Russian forces. The attacks, conducted by UAV systems and Intelligence assets have resulted in notable damage to Russian oil and gas infrastructure that Moscow has been using to feed its own budget and supply Russian aviation units fighting in Ukraine. The Ukrainians have also attacked Russian military airfields, destroying air assets that presented a direct threat to Ukrainian civilians and military personnel.
- In the Spring of 2024, the Russian Volunteer Army conducted a successful incursion into Russian territory at Belgorod, demonstrating that Putin was vulnerable and unable to effectively protect the country. Russian authorities were forced to evacuate the city and cease day to day activities in Belgorod due to the threat of future Volunteer Army attacks. As a result, one interlocutor claimed that the Russian population is growing increasingly disillusioned with Putin and his war and more and more Russians are volunteering to join the Volunteer Army or conduct acts of sabotage against the Putin regime.
- The GoU continues to address corruption in the Government and Armed Forces. There have been multiple high level corruption cases tried by the Government, including senior Oligarchs and members of the government. Kyiv is also working to improve the transparency of its activities as a part of its anti-corruption effort.
- However, several private interlocutors warned that corruption remains a problem and exists at various levels of the government. Favoritism and cronyism also remain problematic, with some Ukrainians complaining that military commands and key GoU positions are awarded to less competent individuals who are poorly qualified to lead/execute their functions, but who are “close” to the President or members of his cabinet. Some foreign business contacts claimed that Ukraine has improved its performance in the area of fighting corruption, but still has a great deal of room to improve. Ukrainian officials did not deny that corruption is a problem in their country but stressed that they are actively working to tackle this problem and understand that combating corruption and building the institutions needed to ensure a “Rule of Law” government in the future is critically important for their country.
- Several interlocutors warned that in May 2024, the country will face a potential political crisis when President Zelenskyy’s term officially ends, and the country does not hold new Presidential elections. They claimed that Ukrainian law is unclear on whether Zelenskyy can stay in office without holding elections. Most interlocutors expressed support for delaying elections given the fact that the country is at war, but expressed concerns that some elements of society might react poorly to a decision not to hold elections. Further, they warned that the Russian Intelligence and Security Services have already started a large-scale disinformation/covert influence operation to exploit Ukrainian sensitivities on this issue.
- Ukrainians generally assessed that Europe’s continued provision of support for Ukraine during the current delay in U.S. assistance has been critical for allowing the Ukrainians to sustain limited defensive operations against Moscow. However, the Europeans are not seen as having enough capabilities or expertise to replace the past leadership role held by Washington.
My Assessment on Ukraine: The mood during this visit was less positive than during our September 2023 visit. Although not one Ukrainian complained about the U.S. decision to delay the provision of assistance and almost all said they understood this was a matter of domestic U.S. politics, it was clear that the Ukrainians are highly disappointed with the U.S. failure to continue providing that much needed aid.
The failure by Washington to renew assistance in the near term will significantly undermine U.S. influence and stature among the Ukrainians and other allies. It will embolden Putin and like-minded dictators and limit Washington’s ability to effectively develop better relations with many countries currently watching to see whether the U.S. has the will and commitment to protect Ukraine because they will also need assistance if they move away from Moscow.
The continued delay in the provision of U.S. assistance and associated losses the Ukrainians will likely face on the battlefield in the face of superior Russian numbers of troops and equipment will lead to an acceleration of political dissent and division within Ukrainian society and political circles. If the Ukrainians conclude that the U.S. has abandon their country, some may look to cut side deals or agreements with the Kremlin to protect themselves from any future return of Pro-Russian forces to power in Ukraine. This, in turn, will significantly increase the Counterintelligence and lethal threat to U.S. and allied interests.
If the Russians conduct successful future offensive operations against Ukrainian forces and seize more territory, it is likely that the Kremlin will order the execution or imprisonment of large numbers of Ukrainians deemed close to the U.S. and other Western countries. The Russians have already committed war crimes and atrocities in Ukraine, and it is likely that these atrocities will pale in comparison to what Putin will order in the event of a Russian victory. A review of Russian and Soviet history demonstrated that the Kremlin’s rulers have little compassion for their former “enemies” and treat defeated opponents with brutality.
A failure to stand with Ukraine at this point will have second and third order negative impacts on U.S. interests. Many countries in Eastern Europe and Eurasia are already hesitating to move too close to the U.S. given the fear of threats from Putin and a sense that the U.S. cannot protect them in the future. The U.S. risks losing current and future valuable trade, diplomatic and security partners at a time when Russia, Iran, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and North Korea are demonstrating a clear willingness to aggressively challenge U.S. influence and attack U.S. allies and interest.
We can expect that a failure to continue to support the Ukrainians will lead to a significant erosion of U.S. interests and harm to the U.S. Countries like the PRC and Iran will likely interpret a failure by Washington in Ukraine as a clear sign that they can also use force to target their neighbors and competitors without having to worry about significant consequences for such actions. This in turn, will force current U.S. allies and potential allies to form new alliances and take new steps, including the potential acquisition of nuclear and other non-conventional weapons to protect themselves given the vacuum created by the withdrawal of U.S. influence.
Russia and Ukraine both have weak economies and limited social welfare and medical networks are needed to deal with the large numbers of combat veterans exposed to, and traumatized by the war. We should expect that this ongoing war will result in significant problems in the areas of transnational crime/organized crime/narcotics trafficking, cyber crime, arms/weapons proliferation, terrorism/extremism, large scale migration and social instability.
Without maintaining its influence and relations with key allies and partners, the U.S. will lose the ability to effectively protect itself from these threats that will eventually have a direct and negative impact on U.S. interests worldwide, including on the U.S. homeland.
Ironically, while many who are opposed to continued support for Ukraine cite their desire to end the war and suffering on the battlefield, a loss by the Ukrainians will almost certainly encourage Putin to expand his war into other parts of Europe and could result in more suffering.
On the other hand, sending a clear signal to Putin that the U.S. has both the will and means to continue to support Ukraine in its war of independence will likely force the Russian dictator to seek an end to the war, which has cost Russia an estimate 300,000 to 400,000 casualties, has caused significant long term harm to the Russian economy and is already increasing the level of crime and instability in Russia. More support to Ukraine will likely bring the war to an end and discourage other autocratic rulers from repeating the mistake that Putin has made in Ukraine.
It is not an exaggeration to claim that a failure by the U.S. to support Ukraine today can lead to a disaster for both Ukraine and the further suffering of a large number of Ukrainian citizens at the hands of a regime in Moscow that has shown little care or concern for the lives of the Ukrainians to date, or its own population in Russia.
However, it is important to stress that any such failure by Washington will also result in extremely negative consequences for the U.S.
Losing Ukraine will not only embolden and encourage further aggression from Putin and his allies in Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang, but will significantly undermine the U.S. ability to identify and disrupt future threats and leave U.S. interests highly vulnerable worldwide and in the U.S. homeland. Those opposed to the continuation of U.S. assistance need to understand this very disturbing reality.
Finally, while the situation in Ukraine is currently extremely difficult, it is not too late for the U.S. to help the Ukrainians defend their country and bring the bloodiest war in Europe since 1945 to an end. U.S. assistance to Ukraine in the past few years has played a critical role in allowing the Ukrainians to save their country to date and has also had a direct, positive impact on the U.S. economy because a large portion of the assistance provided to Ukraine is in the form of equipment and materials produced in the U.S. and has resulted in the increased sales of U.S. manufactured weapons systems and equipment that is helping to reinvigorate the U.S. Defense Industrial Base and bring in much needed revenue for the U.S. economy.
As a result of Putin’s aggression, NATO has expanded, and key NATO allies are both increasing their own defense expenditures and buying U.S. made products to improve their defensive capabilities. Further signs of Putin’s failure will encourage other countries that have been hesitant to move too close to the U.S. for fear of upsetting Putin, to take just such an important step and leave Moscow further isolated and increase the U.S.’s influence and ability to resolve international crisis es and deal with threats well away from the U.S. homeland. It will also give U.S. investors and businesses a most favored status in the Ukrainian market, which is highly important given Ukraine’s abundance of natural resources and its highly skilled work force.
Further support to Ukraine is a win – a win for the U.S. and Ukraine and can play a critical role in reversing the negative trend we have seen in the erosion of U.S. influence and power over the last two decades. Ukraine should be remembered as a success story and this – as an historic moment that helped the U.S. rebuild lost equity globally vice a tragic moment in our history, where we failed to stand up to protect the principles of liberty and freedom and squandered an opportunity to advance U.S. economic, political and security interests for years to come.
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