Norman T. Roule served for 34-years in the Central Intelligence Agency, managing numerous programs relating to Iran and the Middle East. He served as the National Intelligence Manager for Iran (NIM-I) at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence from November 2008 until September 2017. As NIM-I, he was the principal Intelligence Community (IC) official responsible for overseeing all aspects of national intelligence policy and activities related to Iran, to include IC engagement on Iran issues with senior policy makers in the National Security Council and the Department of State.
The Cipher Brief: Recent months have seen both unexpected successes (Bahrain/UAE normalization with Israel), persistent challenges (Iran, Afghanistan), ongoing disasters (Yemen, Syria), and the arrival of new actors (Russia, Turkey, and China). What advice would you give to the next administration?
Roule: New administrations typically receive reams of policy suggestions and position papers on the Middle East produced by experts in the policy and intelligence community. These products will almost certainly underscore the same national interests that have driven our regional policy since 2003: avoid actions that could lead to a regional conflict; don’t let the region’s age-old problems consume political, financial, and military resources and energy better spent on China; protect the flow of energy and regional trade routes; prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons and missiles; develop tailored counter-terrorism and counter-extremism programs and policies; empower Middle East partners with defensive weaponry, and counter Russian and Chinese mischief. The Iran issue will likely include a review of the consequences of sanctions relief or a continuation of the current pressure campaign. I would expect there will also be guidance on what options are available to reinvigorate the Israel-Palestine peace process. The question of how to handle our presence in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan will produce counsel on both sides of the issue, likely focusing on how best to maintain stable environments in Baghdad and Kabul. In addition to broad strategy pieces, advice on individual countries will be specific, tailored to their unique situations.
If asked for a soundbite of counsel, I would say that the region has never seen so many potential drivers – good and bad - for change that should be considered in the development of our national strategy towards the Middle East.
The Cipher Brief: What are some of the positive regional changes that you would highlight?
Roule: Let me run through a brief list.
- The societies of the Middle East are undergoing radical social, economic, political, and even technological transformation. A significant factor is that the majority of the region is young. Afghanistan leads with a median age of just over 18, Yemen and Palestine follow with a median age of around 20. At the far end of the scale, the United Arab Emirates population has a median age of about 37. Just as 9/11 and the Cold War are historical events instead of personal experiences for many Americans, the banners of past Arab nationalism, political Islam, and even the Palestinian issue have less attraction to the region’s rising generation.
- The Middle East’s aged leaders are passing away, and with them sometimes stale ideologies, ineffective economic and social policies, and inefficient bureaucracies. Algeria, Tunisia, and Oman have watched iconic leaders pass from the scene. Oman’s new Sultan has launched an ambitious program to reform his government as his country endures its most severe financial crisis. Our ability to build partnerships with this rising generation of leaders will define American influence in the region for the next generation.
- Globalization and new economic realities changed first how the Middle East looked at the world, but it also caused the region to alter how it sees itself and its engagement with the world. The concept of the rentier state is gradually fading in the face of harsh economic realities. This transformation raises the risk of instability, but it also unleased what appears to be a confident and entrepreneurial generation. We should expect that the introduction of new taxes and reduced benefits will inspire citizens’ calls for a larger voice in governance.
- Tourism is now a critical element of regional economies, although COVID has placed many tourist programs on hold. The idea that Saudi Arabia would ask the world to visit its pre-Islamic sites represents an extraordinary illustration of iconoclastic developments underway.
- The region’s youth from North Africa to Iran are demanding better governance. Visitors to former conservative states in the Gulf are struck by the younger generation’s optimism and support for reforms. The financial constraints imposed by the oil price war and the pandemic may eventually dampen this enthusiasm, support remains broadly intact for the present. Similarly, Gulf anti-corruption campaigns may sometimes appear politically motivated, but they are long overdue and will transform regional economies.
- Interfaith engagement is at unprecedented levels. The Mecca-based Moslem World League has undertaken multiple public outreach efforts to Christian and Jewish communities. The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have held interfaith programs that would have been unheard of only a decade ago.
- Regional powers are playing new security roles throughout the Middle East. These campaigns may involve new actors, but they have precedents. Jordan has played an influential and respected security role in the region for decades and continues to do so through such initiatives as the Aqaba Conference. Recent years have seen Gulf states operate in Africa, the Aegean, as well as in Afghanistan alongside U.S. forces. Some of these efforts have promoted new frictions. Still, we should do what we can to assist those efforts that promote stability and counter extremist elements, and improve the region’s most vulnerable citizens living standards.
- Regional cooperation is growing. The Red Sea basin offers tremendous economic and political potential. African, Arab, and European countries all understand the importance of Red Sea Basin stability and development. Egypt, Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan, and Palestinian Authority are members of the East Mediterranean Gas Forum, a platform for East Mediterranean natural gas Israel and the Gulf countries are likely to cooperate on artificial intelligence and advanced technology programs.
- The normalization of relations between the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Israel shows that Arab states are increasingly unwilling to allow the Palestinian issue a veto over their foreign policy. Although Palestinian rights must be protected, overcoming this barrier is essential to regional development.
The Cipher Brief: So, what are the challenges?
Roule: The next administration will face a long and tragic list of challenges for which existing policies seem hopelessly insufficient.
- First and foremost, the world has failed to make the vast wave of regional suffering a priority and instead treats the collapsed states as a new normal. The idea that the international community could not assist the millions of displaced Syrians, Yemenis, Libyans, and others will stain our generation’s history. Will the next administration attempt to lead the international community to address a humanitarian problem that may consume hundreds of billions of dollars of aid? What does it say about us if we don’t?
- Good governance continues to elude many countries within the Middle East. Sectarianism has destroyed Lebanon and could still do the same to Iraq. Protestors in each country have angrily protested, but without achieving meaningful structural change, if only because the entrenched political leaders have yet to face sufficient pressure to depart. Libya and Yemen remain mired in civil wars that show no sign of ending. It is not inconceivable that Houthi warlords, the Taliban, and the war criminal Bashar al-Assad will rule their respective populations for the foreseeable future.
- The impact of the fragmentation of the international community is playing out in the region. Revisionist adventurism is now the foundation of Iranian and Turkish foreign policy. Ankara’s actions in Libya risk a war between Egypt and Turkey. Iran’s use of proxies to pummel Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones raises the prospect of a regional missile race, if not actual war. The GCC crisis tells us much about how each of the GCC countries views their perceptions of sovereignty as well as their relationship with their neighbors.
- Related to the above, the U.S. has yet to develop a policy to constrain actors conducting hybrid warfare. Our failure to contain Iran in Iraq and Syria, Russia in Crimea, and China in the cybersphere likely encouraged further aggression by these same countries. Turkey appears focused on reshaping its influence in the Eastern Mediterranean. Libya is now a witch’s brew of external actors, unlike anything seen in the Mediterranean basin since the Spanish Civil War. Israel blunted Iran’s activities in Syria, but only by its willingness to conduct a seemingly endless series of airstrikes with minimal international support. Similarly, the Arab coalition has also blunted Iran’s activities in Yemen, but that war continues to drag on.
- The international community’s approach to Iran has oscillated between confrontation and engagement every few years. Iran isn’t responsible for all of the Middle East’s problems, but it is the primary obstacle to regional peace and stability. For more than two decades, Iran’s political DNA has moved to the right with only superficial possibilities of reform. At this point, it seems inevitable that a leadership dominated by or ideologically similar to Iran’s revolutionary guard will dominate the country’s decision-making process.
- China and Russia are now open competitors of the United States in the Middle East. Russia remains a weak but malign actor capable of exacerbating regional conflicts by blocking UN actions and providing arms and mercenaries to its partners. China’s insatiable energy appetite and geo-commercial programs have won it new influence. However, neither of these countries can easily compete with a U.S. approach that relies most on our soft power tools, i.e., commerce, tourism, technology, academic exchanges, and the benefits of an open society.
- Authoritarianism has long dominated the Middle East. This trend has accelerated in the last decade, spurred by new technologies and fears that opposition elements could provide the anarchy of the Arab Spring.
- Last, but certainly not least, we need to look at ourselves. Our foreign policy dynamic routinely involves an extraordinary level of partisan toxicity. This atmosphere has silenced genuine debate and discouraged the bipartisan solutions required for a successful foreign policy.
The Cipher Brief: Are there any broad themes a new administration should consider?
Roule: The Middle East remains a valuable geography for demonstrating what is important to us as a people, as well as what is not. If we see the region in terms of a partnership and focus on its future, other countries will seek our leadership. If we hope to be a beacon for the world, how can we not respond to the plight of millions of regional refugees?
What we don’t do in the Middle East will also serve as a lesson to others. If we don’t stand with Bahrain against Iran, can we be expected to stand with Estonia against Russia or Taiwan against China? If the U.S. and the international community couldn’t respond to the Bashar al-Assad regime’s repeated use of chemical weapons, how can we say that we will do so should another war criminal use these tools against in another arena?
Regional partners may disagree with our decisions, and we should call them out on human rights issues, but they must feel that they can trust the United States and that we take their concerns seriously. Endless and often partisan criticism has been deeply corrosive to our reputation.
The Cipher Brief: What specific steps or programs would you suggest for the first few months of the next administration?
Roule: I would begin with an international conference to see what our leadership can do to improve the lives of those suffering in the region. Such an effort is not only a moral obligation but would demonstrate our leadership in a way that would be recognized globally. Success here would also help prevent these failed states from becoming breeding grounds for extremism and would help limit the mischief of interventionist actors. Although Gulf states no longer have the resources they once enjoyed, their public and private sector leadership in this endeavor will be critical.
The prospect of interfaith acceptance has never been greater in the Middle East. The success of this trend will have a direct impact on our counter-extremism efforts globally. We should encourage a major initiative on this issue by the region’s leadership that involves public diplomacy, legal reform, and continued outreach by the region’s political and religious leaders.
The future of the Iran nuclear deal will have regional consequences. If we return to the deal and the global community allows Iran to retain the right to industrial enrichment – albeit with strict limits and under broad international supervision – then we cannot deny the same to other Middle East countries. It is imperative that our Department of Energy – in close coordination with the private sector – develop a strategy to shape this dynamic before these countries turn to China or Russia. Likewise, we should lay the groundwork for regional dialogue that includes Iran. But we shouldn’t overstate the likelihood this will succeed in the near term. The reality remains that Tehran’s most hardline actors dictate Iran’s regional policies, and therefore, such meetings are unlikely to be productive. This polity sees no reason to compromise and is likely to remain in power for the foreseeable future. Those who say that we will continue to oppose Iran in the region while returning to the Iran deal are rarely specific in what that means. Such vagueness may suit the requirements of diplomacy, but it understandably upsets victims of Iran’s aggression.
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