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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

How Far Should the U.S. Go to Defend Saudi Arabia?

Former senior CIA official Norm Roule examines how Washington can strengthen Saudi Arabia’s defenses against Houthi attacks without risking another open-ended conflict

SAUDI-YEMEN-US-ISRAEL-IRAN-WAR

Recent deadly attacks by Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthis inside of Saudi Arabia have raised questions about just how far the U.S. should go in helping [...] More

Middle East Expert View
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The Open Source Report

TOPSHOT-IRAN-ISRAEL-US-WAR TOPSHOT - An Iranian woman holds Iran's national flag on a street in Tehran on November 1, 2026. Iran warned on November 1 that any new war with the United States could last longer than the previous conflict and that US President Donald Trump would not be the one to determine its duration. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images) /

Global Intelligence Report for Monday, November 2, 2026

Draft proposal for U.S. deal reportedly being circulated as Iranians conclude Doha talks

Ukraine's emergency alert apps hacked, Russian system targeted hours later

U.S. pushes to restore Russian gas sales to Europe via Ukraine

FBI says North Korea behind $6 billion Binance crypto theft

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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Opinion

The Command We Must Start

Richard Berry

In 1928, Secretary of War Dwight Davis ordered the Army to assemble an experimental mechanized force of tanks, armored cars, and motorized infantry at Camp Meade, Maryland. It was disbanded within months. A second attempt [...] More

Opinion

The Cipher Brief’s 10th Threat Conference: Optimism, Urgency, and the Imperative to Act

Shelby L. Pierson
Renee Pruneau Novakoff

Which came first: The Cloister at Sea Island, the Office of Strategic Services, or the CIA? The resort wins. The Cloister first opened in 1928, fourteen years before the OSS and nineteen before CIA. It was a fitting [...] More

Renee Pruneau Novakoff
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News & Analysis

The 214th Separate Assault Battalion OPFOR Training Held In Ukraine

How Ukraine’s Ground Robots Are Changing the Battlefield

Operation Vivaldi, a Ukrainian military effort to repel Russian forces in the Donbas, has done much more than push back Moscow’s offensive in the [...] More

David Kirichenko Xen Europe Ukraine

Opinion

The Kids are Alright: U.S. Soft Power, Aid, and Youth in Africa

Jeremiah A. Carew

The Kids are Alright: U.S. Soft Power, Aid, and Youth in Africa

OPINION — A recent survey of African youth challenges conventional wisdom on foreign aid. Policymakers should take heed of their views as they design [...] More

Alternative Perspectives Africa

What’s on The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel

Book Reviews

Canada’s Top Soldier: Too Many Missions, Too Few Resources
Canada’s Top Soldier: Too Many Missions, Too Few Resources

The Challenge of History: Terrorism in Canada
The Challenge of History: Terrorism in Canada

Access, Attachment, And Judgment: The Americans Who Explained Beijing
Access, Attachment, And Judgment: The Americans Who Explained Beijing

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The Best National Security Gossip

PUSH NOTIFICATION, PUSH BACK: Since 2022, Ukrainians have relied on one app to tell them when to head for shelter. On Sunday night it told them the wrong things. Just before 11 p.m., Ukraine’s public air raid app began pushing false alerts, according to Reuters. One announced that Russia had launched an Oreshnik, the hypersonic missile that can carry a nuclear warhead, and declared a nuclear alert across the country. Ukraine’s air force noticed the alerts were written in Russian and drew the obvious conclusion. All-clear messages followed, and the app was briefly taken offline. A few hours later it was Moscow’s turn. [...] More

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Events

Live Events

2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Previous Event: 25 October, 2026

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of April 9, 2027. This Black-Tie event is invite-only. Please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 09 April, 2027

Podcasts

State Secrets

Russia’s war against Ukraine is being fought on the battlefield, but another confrontation is unfolding across Europe. From drone incursions and sabotage operations to cyberattacks and threats against critical infrastructure, Moscow’s expanding gray zone campaign is raising urgent questions about NATO’s ability to respond.

In this episode of State Secrets, host Suzanne Kelly is joined by Dr. Jacek Siewiera, former head of Poland’s National Security Bureau and former senior national security advisor to the Polish president, and Dave Pitts, former senior CIA executive and co-founder of The Cipher Brief’s Gray Zone Group.

Together, they examine how Russia is using hybrid warfare to test NATO’s defenses, spread fear and uncertainty, and undermine European support for Ukraine. They also explore the growing risks posed by drone technology, the potential use of chemical and radiological weapons, and why traditional deterrence strategies may no longer be enough.

As Russia’s shadow war expands beyond Ukraine, what will it take for Europe and the United States to effectively deter Moscow before these threats escalate further?