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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

How Far Should the U.S. Go to Defend Saudi Arabia?

Former senior CIA official Norm Roule examines how Washington can strengthen Saudi Arabia’s defenses against Houthi attacks without risking another open-ended conflict

SAUDI-YEMEN-US-ISRAEL-IRAN-WAR

Recent deadly attacks by Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthis inside of Saudi Arabia have raised questions about just how far the U.S. should go in helping [...] More

Middle East Expert View
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The Open Source Report

<span>Global Intelligence Report for Friday, October 23, 2026</span>

Global Intelligence Report for Friday, October 23, 2026

Iran threatens expanded strikes on economic, civilian targets if U.S. launches offensive

Trump reportedly asked Musk to lift Ukraine’s Starlink restrictions, though Kyiv says limits remain

Surveillance and 'constant paranoia': Western diplomats tell BBC of life in war-time Moscow

Taiwan says China using militia boats to expand 'battlefield preparation' in western Pacific


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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Opinion

The U.S. Army’s Pacific Strategy Depends on Allies

Walter Pincus

“We never fight alone. We've never done that. You can go all the way back to the days of Revolutionary War. The United States has never gone into conflict on its own. We've always built coalitions. We've always involved [...] More

Walter Pincus Fine Print
Opinion

Muhammad bin Salman’s Humbling and the Return of the Ottomans

Andy Dunn

The Houthis bloodied Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman’s nose—again—with their deadly, cruel, but effective attacks on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport last week. The strikes are the latest in a series of [...] More

Andy Dunn
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News & Analysis

The 214th Separate Assault Battalion OPFOR Training Held In Ukraine

How Ukraine’s Ground Robots Are Changing the Battlefield

Operation Vivaldi, a Ukrainian military effort to repel Russian forces in the Donbas, has done much more than push back Moscow’s offensive in the [...] More

David Kirichenko Xen Europe Ukraine

Opinion

Turkey Has Outsourced Its Censorship to American Companies

Helin Unal

Turkey Has Outsourced Its Censorship to American Companies

Earlier this month, Sky News correspondent Alex Crawford got a notice from X: her account was being blocked in Turkey. She asked the Turkish [...] More

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Book Reviews

Access, Attachment, And Judgment: The Americans Who Explained Beijing
Access, Attachment, And Judgment: The Americans Who Explained Beijing

Can A 19Th-Century Idea Fix 21St-Century Disorder?
Can A 19Th-Century Idea Fix 21St-Century Disorder?

Mercy At Altitude
Mercy At Altitude

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The Best National Security Gossip

NOC NOC, WHO’S THERE? The Washington Post, citing half a dozen people familiar with the plan, reports that the Defense Department is building its own program of nonofficial cover officers, or NOCs. These are spies often posing as businesspeople with no visible government ties. Their target reportedly is China’s economy. The Post says Tom Rakusan, a 39-year CIA veteran who rose to head the agency’s clandestine service, is running the effort. The Pentagon, however, says the program doesn’t exist. “This query appears to be built on information that is simply not true,” a spokesman said. The CIA runs covert action under Title [...] More

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2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Upcoming: 25 October, 2026

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of April 9, 2027. This Black-Tie event is invite-only. Please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 09 April, 2027

Podcasts

State Secrets

Russia’s war against Ukraine is being fought on the battlefield, but another confrontation is unfolding across Europe. From drone incursions and sabotage operations to cyberattacks and threats against critical infrastructure, Moscow’s expanding gray zone campaign is raising urgent questions about NATO’s ability to respond.

In this episode of State Secrets, host Suzanne Kelly is joined by Dr. Jacek Siewiera, former head of Poland’s National Security Bureau and former senior national security advisor to the Polish president, and Dave Pitts, former senior CIA executive and co-founder of The Cipher Brief’s Gray Zone Group.

Together, they examine how Russia is using hybrid warfare to test NATO’s defenses, spread fear and uncertainty, and undermine European support for Ukraine. They also explore the growing risks posed by drone technology, the potential use of chemical and radiological weapons, and why traditional deterrence strategies may no longer be enough.

As Russia’s shadow war expands beyond Ukraine, what will it take for Europe and the United States to effectively deter Moscow before these threats escalate further?