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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

The Continued Myth of Russia’s Imminent Collapse: Lessons from Prigozhin’s Mutiny Three Years On

As speculation about Vladimir Putin’s downfall grows again, lessons of Prigozhin’s rebellion remain widely misunderstood.

TOPSHOT-RUSSIA-UKRAINE-CONFLICT-WAGNER

KREMLIN FILES/COLUMN: Three years ago, in June 2023, the Kremlin confronted one of the most dramatic internal crises of Vladimir Putin's [...] More

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The Open Source Report

IRAN-US-ISRAEL-WAR-FUNERAL People hold a banner depicting US President Donald Trump and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu displaying the words "There Will Be Blood" as they gather along a street for the funeral procession of Iran's slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran July 6, 2026. The funeral procession for Iran's late supreme leader Ali Khamenei began in Tehran on July 6, state television reported, as authorities prepared for crowds that could rival those that turned out for his predecessor nearly four decades ago. (Photo by Wakil Kohsar / AFP via Getty Images)

Global Intelligence Report for Friday, July 10, 2026

Iran devised fresh plot to assassinate Trump, Israel told U.S.

U.S. says diplomacy underway amid paused strikes following tit-for-tat attacks

European coalition pledges $50 billion to modernize deep precision strike capabilities

Zelensky says China warned Putin not to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine

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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Opinion

The Front Line of the AI Race Runs Through Your Company's Chat Logs

David R. Shedd
Andrew Badger

Last year, a statement from former White House AI advisor David Sacks stopped Washington cold. "We now have a Chinese open-weight model that is as good as the currently available models from OpenAI and Anthropic," Sacks [...] More

Opinion

An Outlook for What’s Next in Iran War

Norman T. Roule

With tensions rising all week, the U.S. has launched a new round of strikes against Iranian military targets and maritime assets. The strikes follow an announcement made by President Donald Trump just hours earlier, [...] More

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News & Analysis

U.S. Military Launches Operation Epic Fury Attacking Iran

Endless Warfare – Part II: Countering Endless Warfare and its Networks

Author’s Note: This article is not about ‘endless wars’ as a critique of U.S. military interventions — that debate belongs elsewhere. It examines a [...] More

United States Americas Dave Pitts North America

Opinion

Iran: On Negotiating with Criminal/Terrorist Organizations, States, and Other Entities

Kenneth Dekleva

Iran: On Negotiating with Criminal/Terrorist Organizations, States, and Other Entities

Pending the failed cease-fire and Memorandum of Understanding [MOU] between Iran and America, all eyes have focused on the ongoing, difficult [...] More

Alternative Perspectives

What’s on The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel

Book Reviews

Cole's Digital Danger Is A Useful Guide For The Wrong Audience
Cole's Digital Danger Is A Useful Guide For The Wrong Audience

The Nord Stream Sabotage: Mystery Attacks Explained
The Nord Stream Sabotage: Mystery Attacks Explained

Transparency Matters: Inside Canada's UFO Files
Transparency Matters: Inside Canada's UFO Files

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The Best National Security Gossip

YOU WANT ME TO RIDE WHERE? General Tony Thomas (Ret.), former Commander of U.S. Special Operations Command doesn’t seem to have slowed down much in ‘retirement’. To prove the point, he’s riding 406 miles across the state of Iowa this month in the “oldest, largest and longest recreational bicycle touring event in the world” according to the organizers. The General’s participation in the RAGBRAI ride, as the cool kids call it, will benefit Special Operations Warrior Foundation and if you have an extra $20 burning a hole in your pocket, here’s how you can show your support and put that money to work – without having to [...] More

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Events

Live Events

2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Upcoming: 25 October, 2026

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of April 9, 2027. This Black-Tie event is invite-only. Please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 09 April, 2027

Podcasts

State Secrets

The battlefield is changing faster than most governments can adapt.

In this episode of State Secrets, Cipher Brief CEO Suzanne Kelly sits down with retired General Phil Breedlove, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, to examine how drones, artificial intelligence and autonomous systems are transforming modern warfare—and what that means for U.S. national security.

Drawing on lessons from Ukraine, the Middle East and NATO's eastern flank, General Breedlove explains why drones are only one piece of a much larger revolution in military power. He discusses why America must rethink defense acquisition, how adversaries are exploiting gray zone warfare, why protecting critical infrastructure is becoming increasingly difficult, and why the West can no longer afford to fight tomorrow's wars with yesterday's assumptions.

From the future of air superiority to cyber conflict, autonomous weapons and the growing threat to the homeland, this is a conversation about the wars of the future—and whether the United States is prepared for them.