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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

U.S. Intel’s Sobering Assessment of Iran’s War Resilience

Even after devastating U.S.-Israeli strikes, intelligence assessments suggest Iran’s regime is hardening, not collapsing.

U.S. And Israel Wage War Against Iran

Six weeks into Operation Epic Fury, with airstrikes having killed a sitting supreme leader, wiped out scores of top military and intelligence [...] More

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The Open Source Report

Battleship USS New Jersey on the Camden, NJ, waterfront, view from Philadelphia, PA, across the Delaware River

Global Intelligence Report for Monday, April 13, 2026

Trump says U.S. will ‘blockade’ Strait of Hormuz after no peace deal reached

Iran threatens to hit back against Middle Eastern ports

Hungary’s Orbán concedes election defeat after 16 years as prime minister

Global AI arms race quickens as competing militaries seek battlefield advantage


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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

The Strategic Realignment: Iran, China, and the Great Power Contest

Paul Miller

OPINION — The conflict in Iran is not solely the result of 47 years of unresolved tension. That framing misses a more consequential story: what is unfolding is a significant disruption to China's grand strategy, with [...] More

Why Australia Needs a National Spy Museum

Liesl Jordan

OPINION — Australia is entering one of the most complex and psychologically destabilizing security periods in its modern history. The ASIO Director‑General’s Annual Threat Assessment 2025 underscored a strategic [...] More

News & Analysis

Can the U.S. Win the Critical Minerals Competition?

Can the U.S. Win the Critical Minerals Competition?

What U.S. national security interest binds Greenland, Argentina, the Congo, and the Cook Islands? What was the impetus for the recent “strategic [...] More

Opinion

America’s AI Strategy Is Fighting the Last War

OPINION — Washington’s strategy for artificial general intelligence (AGI), or the ability to replace human cognitive labor, assumes the United States [...] More

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Book Reviews

TOUGH SPELL FOR THE PENTAGON: On Friday, the Pentagon’s “Rapid Response” social media shop posted a slick highlight sizzle reel to tout what the Department accomplished during the week. Eagle-eyed viewers noticed the chyron identifying the Assistant Press Secretary Riley Podleski rendered her title as "SECRATARY." When last we checked, it hadn’t been fixed – but hey, there’s a war on, you know? Maybe they got rid of their spell-checker when they banned Anthropic.SECRET DIS-SERVICE: It has been alleged that a Secret Service agent-in-training for some reason decided to hone his surveillance skills by hiding a spy camera in [...] More

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Events

Live Events

2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Upcoming: 25 October, 2026

Podcasts

State Secrets


In this episode of State Secrets, former CIA Senior Operations Officer Sean Wiswesser examines the evolution of Russian intelligence - from Soviet-era tradecraft to modern hybrid warfare. He unpacks Moscow’s strategic mindset, its transactional relationships with partners like Iran, and its enduring focus on weakening democratic systems. With insights drawn from decades in the field, Wiswesser explains what most people misunderstand about Russia - and why that matters now more than ever.