EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Threats from Russia and its “ally” Belarus are still coming as the invasion of Ukraine grinds through its fifth month but where is this huff and puff leading?
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko says, “The time has come for a forgetful Europe to give itself a moral cleansing.” Huff.
Russian President Vladimir Putin says he has no problem with Finland and Sweden joining NATO, but “if [NATO] military contingents and infrastructure are deployed there, we will have to respond in kind and create the same threats…” Puff.
A couple of weeks ago, while referring to Lithuania and Estonia enforcing EU sanctions on the Russian enclave Kaliningrad (Koenigsberg), Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov called the move “illegal” and said it constitutes a “blockade.” His comments were followed by remarks from Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation and arguably the most powerful man in the country behind Putin. Patrushev said “Russia will certainly respond to such hostile actions. Measures are being worked out and will be taken in the near future. Their consequences will have a serious negative impact on the Lithuanian population.” Huff.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said the risk of nuclear war over Ukraine is “real” as is the risk of World War III. Puff.
In extensive remarks at both the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and before a group of young Russian entrepreneurs and students last month, Putin compared himself to Czar Peter I who—in Putin’s interpretation of history—was taking Russian territory back from Sweden during the Great Northern War. Putin said, “Taking back and reinforcing. That’s what he did. And it looks like it fell on us to take back and reinforce as well.” This is a clear reference to the conflict in Ukraine. Huff.
So much for the “Special Military Exercise” (SME) being about denazification and disarmament of Ukraine. The performance of the Russian military in Ukraine and the changed global dynamic since February 24 strongly suggests that Putin is not in a position to threaten anyone, much less “take back” more territory he claims belongs to Russia.
Putin’s remarks are certainly disturbing and should be of concern to us all because they show a serious disconnect between the Russian dictator and reality. The strategic situation has certainly changed to Russia’s disadvantage. NATO has been renewed and given a relevant if not urgent mission. Sweden and Finland will soon become members. Turkey—for all President Recep Erdogan’s bluster—is showing signs of becoming a more productive member. (Perhaps someone reminded Erdogan that Peter the Great also fought lengthy campaigns against the Ottoman Empire).
The EU has extended an offer of candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova. Europe is finally in the process of removing its dependence on Russian hydrocarbons. It will not take long for alternative sources of natural gas and oil to be developed and positioned to replace supply from Russia. Even Kazakhstan is offering to provide energy to Europe and to help stabilize market prices through increased production—much to Russia’s ire.
Economic sanctions on Russia are now meaningful and, if not of immediate impact, are certainly degrading Russia’s economy in the important sectors of manufacturing and technological development. The impact of sanctions will only become more profound.
Putin has put Russia on a path to be a third-rate economic power, falling further behind the West in levels of technological development. The “brain drain” Russia is experiencing as tens of thousands of young software and computer engineers have fled, will further exacerbate Russia’s technological woes.
The West and its allies in Asia recognize the return of what may be a long-term conflict and division in Europe - and perhaps globally if China ever lives up to the scale of its rhetorical support for Russia. A real global East-West ideological and economic rift may be coming.
A further consequence of this conflict and division is the broad recognition by the West of the need to rearm and to stay politically and militarily unified. Incredibly, Putin has even managed to bring about some level of bipartisan unity in the US at least as far as Ukraine and Russia are concerned.
By any reasonable calculation, Russia is in a far worse position than it was prior to the invasion of Ukraine. The SME has exposed Russia’s military to be a hollow shell, lacking competence in the non-commissioned and officer ranks, its equipment has suffered the effects of decades of corruption in Russia’s defense industry. Morale and the level of training in the combat forces overall is low. Putin has fired a number of senior officers from his intelligence services and military for what he deemed incompetence and poor performance. The dismissals range from the FSB general responsible for foreign intelligence to the commander of the “elite” 1st Guards Tank Army and the Vice Admiral in charge of the Black Sea Fleet.
Russia has seemingly exhausted its supply of precision or “smart” weaponry and the gains it has recently achieved in Luhansk Oblast came through resorting to World War I tactics of massive artillery barrages followed by small infantry advances from trench to trench or destroyed building to destroyed building. Russia’s gains have come at the cost of the complete destruction of the largely ethnic Russian cities of Mariupol, Severodonetsk and now Lysychansk. The campaign thus far has cost Russia nearly 40,000 soldiers and billions of dollars in military equipment. Both the men and material will be challenging to replace. Putin has now decorated two generals for the great victory in securing most of the territory in the Luhansk Oblast. He seems not to have been briefed on territory Ukraine has reclaimed in south Ukraine (including the now famous Zmiinyi or Snake Island) and in the north, near Kharkiv.
Russia has experienced real challenges and meaningful losses in its invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainians have suffered heavily as well. Unfortunately, the grim mathematics of war favor Russia. The same is not true however, in the larger confrontation with the West. Half measures are insufficient, the West needs to recognize the scale of the challenge Putin has now presented.
What Does this Mean?
Despite Russia’s difficulties, Putin believes he is on an historic - if not religious - mission and he is not about to quit. Whatever false optimism may have existed about the Russian President taking an ‘off ramp’, or passing away due to his many reported maladies, should now be dispelled. Putin is in it for the long haul.
He believes, probably correctly, that the Russian people support him and are capable of enduring much more suffering before any threat to his regime will emerge. In fact, arguably the most serious criticism of the SME comes from military bloggers and conservatives who believe Putin is not using Russia’s full military power. They believe instead that he is being too “soft” on the Ukraine and NATO. However, Russia’s conventional military power is nearing exhaustion.
Russia has not yet succeeded in fulfilling its revised and reduced military objective of “liberating” the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. NATO is increasing the capability and numbers of weapons systems it provides Ukraine. At what point does Putin decide it is time to challenge the fortitude and resolve of the West by resorting to the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
Putin’s Miscalculations
Putin has been gravely mistaken in his assessment of the resolve of the West to this point. He may miscalculate again on the next level of escalation, though based on recent statements, it is unlikely Putin believes he has made mistakes. He will find signs of optimism in support within the EU from Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban and the resurgence of support for populist candidate and Putin advocate Marie Le Pen in France. Putin will be happy to see Boris Johnson depart as Prime Minister of the UK. For all his flaws, he was a staunch supporter of Ukraine. Putin will appreciate the ambivalent stance taken thus far on the conflict by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the leaders of a number of other countries. Putin will believe Chinese Presidnet Xi Jinping’s rhetoric of support but must know that Xi will act to protect China’s economy as a first priority.
Putin will look at receipts in his treasury from the extraordinary revenues received with energy prices at high levels—in part because of disruption caused by his SME. Putin knows he still has unused cyber destructive capability. At a minimum, he will do his best to use cyber influence capabilities to cause dissent and disruption in the US in the run-up to the November elections.
What Do We Do?
Clearly, there is serious and hard work ahead for the leaders of the West. The cost of rebuilding the arsenal of democracy will be high, but it must be done. The West should publicly and unequivocally state its political and strategic objectives for support of Ukraine, e.g., unconditional victory.
Russia must withdraw to pre-2014 borders that include the return of Crimea to Ukraine. Moscow must also pay for the reconstruction of what it has destroyed and must pay reparations to those who have suffered loss. Russians who have committed war crimes, including Russia’s senior military and political leaders, must be remanded to justice. Anything less than the statement and achievement of these objectives will leave the door open for Putin and other leaders of his ilk, to embark on their own military ventures to recover lost or desired territory. We need to stay firm and resolute.
Let Putin huff and puff and threaten to blow our house down. The foundation on which the liberal democracies of the West are built is made of brick. They are based on a premise expressed over two centuries ago, “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.”
These are scary words for Putin, Xi, Khamenei, Kim, Maduro, and other leaders of repressive regimes. It is time for them to hear and fear the resolve of the West.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief
