The significant weekend visit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un started with a Tweet last Thursday as President Trump was getting ready to depart the G20 conference in Osaka, Japan.
“After some very important meetings, including my meeting with President Xi of China, I will be leaving Japan for South Korea (with President Moon.) While there, if Chairman Kim of North Korea sees this, I would meet him at the Border/DMZ just to shake his hand and say Hello(?)!”
The impromptu meeting served as the first time a sitting U.S. President has crossed the DMZ and stepped foot into North Korea. Now experts are asking whether it was a fantastic weekend photo op, or whether the meeting may in fact lead to the re-establishment of serious talks, as the President said it would.
The Cipher Brief tapped expert Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, who formerly served as Special envoy for Six Party Talks with North Korea and as the U.S. Special Representative to the Korea Energy Development Organization for his take on the meaning of the President’s weekend visit.
DeTrani: My overall reaction is positive. President Trump has a good relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The key is for the U.S. to accomplish its goal - which is the complete, verifiable, de-nuclearization of North Korea and you know, we've been doing this since the agreed framework in 1994. I think the four bullets on that agreement were good and we just haven't had any progress on de-nuclearization. That's a fact. There's more fissile material being produced and they're probably weaponizing that material. So, I think if this DMZ meeting resulted in Kim Jong Un agreeing that our lead negotiators need to sit down and start to talk about complete, verifiable, de-nuclearization, then I think the DMZ was worth it and further to that, there are some good prospects, hopefully.
The Cipher Brief: How should we now be thinking about the recent visit to North Korea by Chinese President Xi Jinping?
DeTrani: It was a very important visit because Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Communist Party, visited North Korea. That itself was long overdue. Kim Jong Un has been in power for seven years now and he visited with Xi four times last year. So, I think the meeting went well. I think it was not only the symbolism, but almost a meeting that was required of these two allies. It goes back to the Peace and Friendship Treaty of 1961 and of course, obviously, the Korean War and China's major participation in that war. It was a very necessary welcoming of Xi Jinping, which I liked. I think North Korea felt that too and welcomed Xi Jinping. But I don't think there was anything overly significant accomplished, though I do think that Xi Jinping made his points to Kim Jong Un, likely telling him that he needs to go back to the negotiating table and talk about de-nuclearization, but in return for security assurances and economic development assistance and help from China in that process.
My personal view is that I think he reminded Kim Jong Un about the need for the continuation of negotiations with the ultimate goal of de-nuclearization. But, certainly in return for security assurances, economic development assistance, and I think on that point, that's probably where China and Xi Jinping personally weighed in most heavily, saying that we're there for you. We're going to be there, we’re concerned about your security assurances and your economic development assistance and the lifting of sanctions. We will support you on those things. But you've got to give me, (Xi Jinping and China) something and that means getting back to negotiations and working this process with the Americans.
The Cipher Brief: President Trump does diplomacy in a radically different way than we've seen it done in the past. How do you - as a watcher of the U.S.-North Korea- China situation - weigh the different influences and how do you rank who is having the most impact right now? Is it China, President Trump or North Korea?
DeTrani: I certainly think it's Kim Jong Un. Kim is moving North Korea in a different direction. His father was moving in that direction, but he's made the statement very clearly that he's going to focus on economic development and his real concern is security for North Korea and a normal relationship with the United States. I think he's intensified significantly what his father and grandfather were pursuing, but not with as much vigor. I think he's intensified the nuclear missile programs to ensure that they do provide a deterrent. So, I see Kim Jong Un as the major player in this equation. But he's working with two powerful entities and one is certainly China, because North Korea is tethered to China, over 90% of North Korea’s trade and over 90% of their crude oil and petroleum products come from China. They're tethered to China, they need China. There's no way that North Korea can exist without that relationship. But they also need the United States because that will guarantee Kim Jong Un and his regime the necessary security that only a normal relationship with the U.S. can provide. I think he saw in 2017 with the maximum pressure and fire and fury, that not only do you not want the U.S. to be your enemy and hostile towards you, but you want the U.S. to have a normal relationship with you.
I think you've got three major players and Kim Jong Un is the primary player, but then certainly China and now, Donald Trump. I don't think they ever anticipated this. You've got a President of the United States who now crossed the DMZ and went into North Korean territory. He is the first sitting President to do that, which is significant. They're working with a very key actor here with Donald Trump and they know the elections are coming up in 2020. They would be fools not to intensify negotiations at this time because they must have a sense that they can get a deal with this President.
The Cipher Brief: Would you support a North Korea visit to the U.S. with Kim potentially visiting the White House?
DeTrani: I would have no problem with that, though I would have a problem with it if normal negotiations did not ensue and if our negotiators were not sitting down to talk about these issues and come to some sort of resolution on complete, verifiable de-nuclearization and normalization. A visit minus movement on negotiations today is just symbolism and I don't think we would accomplish anything with that. In fact, it would be giving the wrong signal.
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Read more from Ambassador DeTrani in The Cipher Brief
