“He [President Trump] felt it was imperative that Iran not be able to establish a conventional shield that they were building with massive number of drones and missiles, and they were on their way to getting double what they had, and if they reached the point where they had so many missiles and so many drones plus their naval capabilities that existed at the time, Iran would then say to the world there's nothing you can do about our nuclear program because if you do we will overwhelm your defenses with the sheer volume of launches that we have and then they could do whatever they wanted on their nuclear program. That was an unacceptable risk. It was a risk that we were running out of time to address.”
That was Secretary of State Marco Rubio, testifying last Wednesday before the Senate Appropriations Committee and providing the latest rationale for the U.S. joining Israel in the first February 28 bombing attack on Iran.
Rubio went on to claim that prior to the decision to attack, Trump and his advisors weighed the risks, “not just [to Iran closing] the Strait [of Hormuz], but also the attacks against Kuwait and Bahrain and UAE (United Arab Emirates) and Saudi Arabia and Qatar. It was weighed against that and the President made a decision that not having a nuclear weapon above all else had to be the priority.”
Wednesday’s Senate Appropriations appearance was Rubio’s fourth time testifying last week before Congress, nominally about the State Department’s fiscal 2027 budget, but in reality providing public answers to a whole series of administration wartime and foreign policy activities that have seen various explanations for weeks.
I will discuss some of Rubio's policy explanations to Senate and House members last week in a moment, but the hearings also provided surprising new information, not all of it from the Secretary of State.
For example, did you know the Trump administration has had three classified criteria it has used to determine which so-called narco-trafficking boats should be blown up in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean? Up-to-now at least 207 people have been killed as the result of more than 60 such U.S. strikes, with little public explanation.
At last Tuesday’s Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) told Rubio, “I know what the targeting criteria are because of briefings I've had in this committee and in the [Senate] Armed Services Committee. It's all been classified and I'm not allowed to discuss the targeting criteria because they've only been shared in classified [settings].”
However, Kaine added, “I don't think I'm prohibited from describing things that aren't targeting criteria.” He then said what had surprised him was that “There's evidence of narcotics on the
boat. That is not (emphasis added) a targeting criteria…They have not used the presence of narcotics on the boat as one of the targeting criteria,” Kaine repeated.
Kaine then asked Rubio, “Why would the administration not include the presence of narcotics in the boat as a targeting criteria?” and Rubio replied, “As you've just outlined, I can't discuss the specifics of the targeting criteria, but I can tell you the one thing that is obvious is that the targeting criteria is not single source. In essence, there are multiple checks...and all of it informed and infused by intelligence collection.”
Rubio added, “I'm not aware of every strike because it's not reported [to him] on a regular basis, but there have been strikes that they've walked away from because it doesn't meet the criteria or because there's doubt.”
Later, at that same hearing, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) noted “that the statistics from the [U.S.] Coast Guard also say that when we interdict alleged drug boats in the historic way, the way we've always done it, about one in four don't have drugs. We make mistakes. We see something suspicious about the boat. We stop them and they don't have drugs on board.”
Then Sen. Paul went on, “I would also like to add that drugs is not a criteria for blowing up the boats, the boats that are called drug boats, but neither are arms (emphasis added). So, in order to blow them up, we don't have to say that they're armed or have drugs. And I think a lot of people would have questions, which I still do.”
It’s obvious the so-called criteria for these strikes needs more explanation.
Another issue, brought up at Wednesday’s hearing, came from Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and related to the more than 100 vacant U.S. ambassadorial posts around the world.
Shaheen told Rubio, “The fact is it's not the Foreign Relations Committee in the Senate that is holding up those nominees. It's the fact that the nominees are not being submitted to us [and] those nominees who start to go through the process often aren't willing to comply with the ethics requirements that require that they divest of their outside holdings.”
Noting that “you just sent over 20 nominees of whom only four are career people,” Shaheen said, “So the problem is not in the Congress, the problem is in the administration. And I hope that you will begin to take up that slack by appointing more career ambassadors.”
As for today’s main issues, Rubio made clear the re-opening for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was the U.S. priority with Iran, while solving the nuclear issues with Tehran comes second.
As Rubio put it on Wednesday before the Senate Appropriations panel, “The only reason there is a [U.S. Navy] blockade is because of what they've [Iranians] done in the Strait. The fact that they are telling the whole world we will not let your ships through unless you pay us a toll. And we can never accept that -- that we can never accept, the tolling system in the Strait. If we accept that in the Strait it will be replicated in multiple places around the world. There'll become a new status quo, everyone will want to do one.”
Rubio added that Iran had “mined the Straits and are shooting drones at ships. So, they need to stop doing that. They need to cooperate with the removal of the mines. And if they do that, then [open] the Strait, then the blockade comes off.”
At another point last Wednesday, Rubio said as part of the negotiations, once the Strait is opened, the U.S. blockade withdrawn, “they [the Iranians] would agree as part of all of this that they are prepared to sit down and negotiate an agreement that disposes of the highly-enriched uranium that limits, and/or prohibits, their enrichment program.”
Rubio continued, “In return they [the Iranians] would be able to have some, not all, of the sanctions that they are facing for their nuclear program potentially waived or reduced, but that would be only be depending on what they give, and of course these things all have to be verifiable.”
Rubio further explained, “The highly-enriched uranium you can verify because when it's removed it's removed. The enrichment monitoring is the one that's going to be critical for any deal to be successful.”
Toward the end of the Senate Appropriations hearing, Rubio summed up nuclear negotiations saying, “What's been offered to them? There's no down payment or bonus for entering into negotiations. So what's been offered to them is everything that they ask for will be commensurate with what they're willing to give as part of the broader negotiation for a deal…The only thing they get for opening the Strait is the lifting of our blockade.”
On enrichment, Rubio clarified, “What we're focused on, I think most people are focused on, is the highly-enriched uranium, which is, you know, like the 60% [enriched uranium] for example, that we know they still possess that can quickly be turned into 90%. That's what the term highly- enriched uranium is. There's some 20% enriched as well, but the bulk of what the world is concerned about is the 60%.”
During his appearance before the House Foreign Affairs Committee last Wednesday, Rubio gave a hint of whom, among the Iranians, they hope they are dealing with.
Rubio explained, “As you know, the Iranians suffered tremendous losses in personnel, and that includes top leadership of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and other elements of their government. What the President [Trump] is alluding to is that there are certain individuals in the Iranian regime who have indicated both directly and indirectly a willingness to approach the future perhaps a little differently. Not ideal. I'm not telling you. Look, everybody talks about moderates in Iran. There are no moderates. There are radicals and super radicals. Okay? That's been our view of it. But there are some of them that believe that they actually need to do a deal because their economy is in shambles. And so I think what the President is alluding to is that there are some individuals involved in the negotiations and in elements of their government including some in elements of their military that are more open to a deal than others.”
Asked about post-President Maduro Venezuela during last Tuesday’s Senate Foreign Relations hearing, Rubio said, “Venezuela is in a better place today and in a better trajectory today than it was five months ago. Now, is it where it needs to be? Is it where it needs to ultimately wind up? The answer is, of course, no.”
Rubio explained, “Ultimately, in order to truly transition, they have to have multi-party free and fair elections. But the conditions for free and fair elections are the following. First of
all, you have to have a free and open media. And while you've seen independent journalists are now for the first time activated again, that has to exist. Political parties have to be given the space and time to organize. The National Electoral Council has to be reformed so that it has members in it that will actually accurately count the vote. You have to have certain conditions in place. I'm not telling you that's five years from now, but it's been five months. So I want to be relative to that.”
On Cuba, Rubio told the Senators, “Cuba is actually not controlled by the government. Cuba's controlled by a military holding company named Gaesa. And Gaesa virtually owns everything, they own the tourist sector, they own mining, they own the gas stations, they own everything. They generate about 70% of Cuba's GDP [which]is under the control of this military company and they're sitting on between $14 [billion] and $17 billion in assets. So you have people literally starving, a power grid that hasn't been maintained in 10 years. And yet you have this holding military company sitting on these assets. And by the way, not a penny of the money in the military holding company translates over to the public treasury.”
With that background, Rubio said that for Cuba “not to continue to be a failed state, which poses a threat to the United States, they need systemic and serious reform. They need to have economic reforms. And the question is, can they possibly reform given the people who are currently in charge both of Gaesa and of their government?”
Not surprisingly, Rubio went on, “I really don't believe this system [in Cuba] is capable of reform unless new people take over or a new mindset takes hold. Now, we've engaged in conversations with them. We've offered them what I think needs to happen in order for their economy to recover,” but he did not explain what that was.
Whether or not Rubio’s information turns out to be accurate and his views of where things should be headed even prevail, the words of this Secretary of State/acting White House National Security Adviser need serious consideration because on top of it all he may be a future Presidential candidate.
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