Syria is Russia’s only real ally in the Middle East. A stable and friendly Syria is in Moscow’s best interests. Stability in Syria is also in the best interests of the United States. Yet Moscow and Washington have different ideas on how to rid the region of chaos. Former U.S. Senior Defense Official and Attache to the Russian Federation Brigadier General Peter Zwack explains the differences and similarities between Russian and U.S. interests in the Middle East.
The Cipher Brief: What are Russia’s intentions in the Middle East? Short-term? Long-term? How does this align with recent Russian activity there?
Peter Zwach: Russia and the USSR have been in Syria since 1970, which became especially important for them, after the Egyptians kicked them out of Egypt in 1972. Syria is the only remaining Russian base/platform outside the former Soviet Union since the end of the Cold War. Russia desires a stable Baathist regime in Syria, preferably with Assad in power, but doesn't seem necessarily wed to him. They are utterly convinced that the regime's fall will bring chaos, extremism, and dislocation to the region that will blow back on Russia. They want to keep their presence in the eastern Mediterranean. It appears that in the short term, they are succeeding. Don’t expect their presence in Syria, with the S-400 Air Defense system now in place, to appreciably change, even with their declared drawdown.
TCB: Does Russian activity in the Middle East conflict with U.S. interests? If so, what can the U.S. do?
PZ: Both countries are against radical Sunni transnational Islam governance. The key difference is that since 2011, the U.S. has been committed to a declared course to put the excessively violent Assad regime out of power, while the Russians are totally against this. Both countries see ISIS as a major threat, however, the rebels threatening Assad's regime are and have been Russia's main target, while the U.S. presses against ISIS. These dual, highly "kinetic" campaigns, which overlap somewhat, are potentially very dangerous, as we saw with the shoot-down of Russia's SU-24 by Turkish F-16s. Russia's allies and proxies in the region, which include Iran and Hezbollah, are also in direct confrontation with U.S. allies and partners, such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia. That further complicates this difficult situation. The Kurdish dilemma makes the situation even more complex.
TCB: What advantages and disadvantages does Russia have when it comes to operating in the Middle East? What about the U.S.?
PZ: The Russians have surprised us by their ability to create and sustain a robust but carefully calibrated military campaign outside their traditional operating zone, bounded by the countries and regions of the Former Soviet Union. Regardless, over time, this aggressive military presence, while netting Russia a global and domestic awareness of its increasingly forceful and assertive regional role, could become a liability in the hornet's nest of Syria's Civil War and greater regional Sunni-Shia sectarian war. Recognition of this fact may have been behind Russia’s recent declaration of a military withdrawal of some assets from Syria, which also netted it a huge positive media boost, both internationally and domestically. Russia has numerous pulls on its finite military and financial resources. These resources are stressed by a potentially never-ending social, fiscal, and increasingly unpopular separatist ulcer in eastern Ukraine, and a struggling economy, with oil prices still near record lows and a high rate of inflation. Over time, Russia will have difficulty sustaining all these activities while ensuring a supportive, pliant domestic population that has suffered quality-of-life reductions since 2014.
The U.S. is challenged by its declared policy for the removal of the Assad regime, while also fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria. This is directly contrary to Russia's intent to keep the Baathist regime in power. The inability of both sides – with their allies, partners, and proxies – to come to an agreed solution for a regional "way-ahead" makes it hard to focus on major, common U.S. - Russian interests, including a desire for regional stability and the defeat of militant Islamic extremist groups that threaten both nations.
TCB: What are potential areas for collaboration between the U.S. and Russia in the Middle East?
PZ: Let’s watch what happens with the ongoing international and regional negotiations and the fragile ceasefire. In the grand strategic sense, the U.S. and Russia have a lot in common, starting with a common concern in rolling back regional and international Muslim extremist terror. It should be in both nations’ interests, as well, to work regionally to tamp down the worst violence of the Syrian Civil War, while staving off a direct nation-to-nation Sunni-Shiite sectarian conflict.
