As Kurdish forces battle the Islamic State (ISIS) on the frontlines in Iraq and Syria and the government in Baghdad struggles to preserve a cohesive Iraq, the calls for an independent Kurdistan have never been more pronounced.
“I believe that it is in the best interest of Kurdistan to become an independent state, and I believe that we are destined to have an independent Kurdish state,” affirmed Bayan Sami Abdul Rahman, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Representative to the United States, in an exclusive interview with The Cipher Brief.
Discussions over Kurdish statehood often revolve around two major questions: What would the physical borders of an independent Kurdistan look like, and what steps must be taken for Kurdistan to gain international recognition as a sovereign nation?
Geographically, ethnic Kurdish populations span four countries – Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran – with the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region in northern Iraq serving as the headquarters for the Kurdish parliament known as the KRG. Within the KRG, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), headed by Masoud Barzani, currently holds the majority of parliamentary seats, with Barzani presiding as President of the KRG since 2005. The Peshmerga are the military force that protects the Kurdistan Region in Iraq and have gained notoriety as the fight against ISIS rages on.
In neighboring Syria, Kurds reside in the country’s northeast, with the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Unity Party (PYD) politically representing Syrian Kurds. The Popular Protection Units (YPG), the armed wing of the PYD, has become one of the more effective forces in pushing back ISIS in Syria and is most recognized for its victory over ISIS in the Syrian-border town of Kobane early last year.
Kurds also maintain a significant presence in southeastern Turkey, where relations between the Kurds and the Turkish government have been strained for decades. Most notable among the Kurdish group in Turkey is the Kurdistan’s Workers Party (PKK), which has waged an armed struggle against the Turkish state since the 1980s. The most recent ceasefire between the Turkish government and the PKK was broken in 2013, and the PKK remains on the list of U.S. officially designated terrorist groups.
Additionally, a substantial number of Kurds live in northwestern Iran and are represented by the Democratic Party of Kurdistan in Iran (PDKI), which was founded in 1945. Since its establishment, the PDKI has clashed with both the Shah and the Ayatollah leadership in an effort to achieve increased rights for Kurds in Iran.
While Kurds maintain roots across four countries, they have failed to form a united front and they each face serious challenges in their respective homelands. However, the Kurds in Northern Iraq have already attained a degree of autonomy and appear to be the only Kurds with a realistic chance of creating a Kurdish state.
“Of course every Kurd dreams of a united greater Kurdistan, and by that I mean four parts of Kurdistan all joined together. That’s a dream that may one day come true. But right now that looks highly unlikely,” explains Abdul Rahman. “When we’re talking about independence, we as government officials, we’re talking only about Iraqi Kurdistan.”
With borders somewhat drawn out, the next question becomes how to achieve independence? Although the Kurds have garnered increased autonomy as they combat ISIS and as the governments in Damascus and Baghdad rapidly fall apart, the waters ahead are not smooth sailing.
“The next logical steps toward full self-determination will be much trickier and slower to navigate,” wrote Michael Knights in The Cipher Brief last fall.
First, the KRG must hold two referendums – one in order to determine what areas disputed by the Kurds and Baghdad will be included in an official Kurdish state, and a second to establish whether Kurds actually want to become independent from Iraq. According to Knights, each will bring its own set of obstacles that could complicate Kurdish statehood ambitions.
Second, the Kurds must work with regional partners, primarily Turkey and Iran, as well as with the government in Baghdad, in order to hammer out the nuts and bolts that will accompany any declaration of independence.
“[This] requires striking compromises with Baghdad over new borders and oil resources, and just as importantly, convincing Turkey and Iran that separatist feelings among their respective Kurdish minorities will not be stoked,” writes Cipher Brief expert and journalist Amberin Zaman. “The Iraqi Kurds will also need the backing of least one regional power – either Turkey or Iran – to assure their land-locked state’s survival,” she continues.
Kurdish officials also recognize a need to cooperate with the U.S. to achieve their aspirations. Although the U.S. has coordinated closely with the Kurds in the fight against ISIS, it has not endorsed a push toward Kurdish statehood.
Today, calls for Kurdish independence are as strong as ever, but transforming this dream into fruition remains a daunting task.
Bennett Seftel is the Deputy Director of Editorial at The Cipher Brief.
