Nationalist fervor, a more aggressive military posture, and curbs on free speech in China today are the hallmarks of one man: President Xi Jinping. He came to power in 2012 with the mandate to pursue a prosperous society and national renewal, and he has made this “Chinese Dream” the end goal for all of his major policy efforts. To do this, Xi has reversed the course of Chinese politics that has occurred since the reformist Deng Xiaoping. Rather than expand consensus and transparency, Xi has sought to draw more and more power into China’s Communist Party. His rationale is that strong leadership is necessary for China to weather the existential problems it now faces.
To understand Xi Jinping, one has to look at his rise through the ranks of the Chinese Communist Party. It was tumultuous. He weathered the exile of his father, an original revolutionary, and worked his way from provincial administrator to the most powerful man in the country. Speaking of Xi’s formative years, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd remarked that “… through his personal life, and his political life, he has experienced the best of the Party and the worst of the Party.” What remains to be seen is whether Xi’s current efforts will make the Communist Party more resilient or brittle.
The most visible policy of Xi’s tenure as leader has been his anticorruption campaign. While this campaign confronts real issues of government bribery and largesse, it also serves Xi’s personal interests. Once an official accused of bribery has been removed, Xi is then able to replace them with one of his allies. The fact that the campaign has left those close to Xi untouched, implies the campaign is more for his own gains. Gordon Chang, author of The Coming Collapse of China, told the Cipher Brief: “The inescapable conclusion is that Xi’s campaign is more a political purge than a law-enforcement effort.”
Since taking the reins in 2012, Xi has accumulated several new titles that have placed him at the center of more party institutions than any leader since Mao Zedong. In addition to being named the Commander in Chief of the armed forces in April, Xi has been named to previously nonexistent posts as chairman of the comprehensive reform committee and as head of the nation’s internal security forces. These positions and others place Xi in a position to micromanage more and more pieces of the Communist Party.
In a subtler, but significant signal of power, Xi is now being referred to in official documents as hexin, or “core.” This phrasing, which fell out of use during the Hu Jintao regime was originally used to describe Mao and Deng. Xi’s use of this term is what has raised concerns over whether he has a growing cult of personality like that of Mao, something that has been illegal since 1982. While Xi’s persona has drawn nowhere near the fanaticism that compelled the prohibition, it appears he is more comfortable with the idea than his predecessors.
Xi’s skill at strengthening the party has not transferred to his management of the economy. Placing himself at the center of economic decision making, like he did during the recent stock market crisis, produced a solution that was ineffective and made without the advice of key economic advisors. The fact that Xi prefers to make more decisions personally, rather than by informed consensus, affects not only China, but the countries and organizations that interact with China.
Many experts believe that Xi’s actions will make China’s economy a difficult environment for investors for the foreseeable future. Will Heidlage, a research director at Bower Group Asia, told the Cipher Brief that, “…major projects and investments are now subject to the whims of Beijing’s inside-baseball politics. And as a result, China’s political and economic risks are actually rising.” Heidlage went on to say that progress at the Strategic & Economic Dialogue could pave the way for greater transparency in reporting economic data and financial regulations.
Looking forward, we can expect moves that place more power in Xi’s hands. China watchers believe Xi will name close supporters to key cabinet posts in the upcoming 19th party congress in 2017. This will allow Xi to engage in more reforms throughout the final five years of his tenure as president. In that time, Xi will continue the challenging task of steering the world’s largest country towards greater prosperity. His success hinges on his own strength and that of the party he has reforged. They will succeed or fail together.
Will Edwards is an International Producer with The Cipher Brief.
