The Center of Security Discourse and Planning

In 2016, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has experienced record-setting high temperatures. This is seen by meteorologists as part of a steady trend that will not abate and has led experts to predict that stress on water endowments and supplies in the region could in turn spur conflict and population displacement in the world’s most water-scarce region. As populations grow, per capita water demand rises and global climate change intensifies.  Per capita water availability in the MENA region is projected to halve by mid-century.

Water is, of course, essential to human life. In a region that is the locus of some of the world’s most intense and complex conflicts, water should therefore be placed at the center of security discourse and planning. There has certainly been some attention to the security implications of water and related economic and governance issues. However, immediate political and ideological developments have understandably dominated the mainstream security discourse, particularly among policy makers, and have obscured equally important issues such as water, environmental change, and economic and demographic trends. These have largely remained specialist interests. This must change if adequate and responsive policies are to be developed by the international community and by those powers, such as the United States, with a stake in the region.