Editor’s Note: Over the coming days, The Cipher Brief presents some of our most incisive coverage on key issues of 2016 and a look ahead at what is yet to come in 2017.
This past year brought no relief to those fighting the scourge of terrorism. Terrorists carried out horrific attacks at airports in Brussels and Istanbul, at crowded festivals in Berlin, Nice, and Baghdad, at restaurants in Bangladesh, and at various locations throughout Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Afghanistan. The world also faced the growing phenomenon of the radicalized, lone-wolf assailant, as demonstrated by the shooting at a nightclub in Orlando and more recently by a stabbing spree at the Ohio State University.
Upon examining the state of terrorist organizations in various regions, there are a number of themes that run through current counterterrorism efforts undertaken by the U.S. and the international community:
- It has been difficult to implement a counterterrorism approach that focuses on both ISIS and al Qaeda simultaneously. In an almost seesaw-like fashion, ISIS burst onto the scene just as al Qaeda was weakened, and now as ISIS is beaten back, al Qaeda has arisen from the ashes perhaps stronger than ever.
- Success should be measured both on and off the physical battlefield. While the U.S. and its coalition partners aim to root ISIS out of its self-declared caliphate in Syria and Iraq, ISIS has proliferated in disparate locations and even into cyberspace.
- Resilience is a primary military objective for many terrorist organizations. Their main imperative is to draw opposing forces into a war of attrition and wait out conflicts until the time permits for a reemergence.
- There are still no answers for the “day after” question. From Mosul to Somalia to Nigeria, there has been a failure to outline how former terrorist strongholds will be governed and how terrorists will be kept out after they are defeated militarily. Coalitions have proven effective at rooting out terrorist groups, but without strong governance, terrorists will return once the coalitions withdraw.
- Countering the narrative put forth by ISIS and other terrorist groups remains a critical shortcoming. Without an effective counter-messaging campaign individuals will continue to be inspired by ISIS’ propaganda.
As 2016 draws to a close, where do we stand against the most pressing terrorist threats?
Al Qaeda in Afghanistan/Pakistan
Despite repeated affirmations from the Obama Administration that al Qaeda, and particularly al Qaeda’s core in South Asia, is “a shadow of its former self” and is on the verge of “strategic defeat,” the organization remains a force to be reckoned with, some fifteen years after 9/11 and the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan.
“The Obama administration’s evaluation of the decline of al Qaeda’s core was, in my judgment, not correct,” explains Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, Cipher Brief expert and Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“It clearly has been damaged,” says Gartenstein-Ross, “but the broader question is how much did this damage weaken it overall? Al Qaeda’s core leadership is meant to be resilient in the face of attrition…I’m skeptical that it was weakened as much as popular conception holds.”
According to counterterrorism expert Bruce Hoffman, under the leadership of Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda’s core appears to be “consciously rebuilding,” and “strengthening its combat capabilities, particularly in Afghanistan” where the Taliban, a movement with close ties to al Qaeda, now controls more territory than it has at any point since 2001.
“In all of al Qaeda’s main theaters, very unfortunately and tragically, it is gaining credibility and gaining respect, and amassing additional power at a time when we thought we could just write off al Qaeda as having strategically collapsed, if not decisively defeated,” says Hoffman.
Al Qaeda in Yemen (AQAP)
Al Qaeda’s Yemeni offshoot, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), has produced some of the network’s most impactful and dangerous figures, including notorious cleric Anwar al-Awalki, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab (also known as the underwear bomber), former commander Naser al-Wuyahshi, and at-large bomb maker Ibrahim al-Asiri.
“The United States views AQAP as the most dangerous of al Qaeda’s affiliates, yet its pursuit of the group has been inconsistent,” says Brian Michal Jenkins, Senior Advisor at the Rand Corporation. “Unlike al Qaeda’s other affiliates, which have generally concentrated on local contests, AQAP, while engaging its foes in Yemen, has never abandoned Osama bin Laden’s line of attacking the far enemy – the United States.”
The ongoing civil war in Yemen has created a power vacuum, which AQAP has exploited by conquering territory and expanding its influence across the country. At the onset of the conflict, AQAP even established an “alliance of convenience” with forces loyal to Yemen’s President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi to combat Houthi rebels.
However, in January, this alliance fell apart; AQAP came under heavy aerial bombardment from the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen and was pushed out of the port-city of Mukallah in May. The U.S. has also continued to conduct targeted strikes against AQAP militants. Nonetheless, AQAP still stands strong.
“Al Qaeda as a group, they took their licks but they’re doing really well,” says Patrick Skinner of the Soufan Group. “The thing is, even when we hurt them right now, like in Yemen [where] we beat them back a little bit, they are still more powerful in Yemen then they ever have been.”
Al Qaeda in Syria (Jabhat al-Nusra/Jabhat Fateh al-Sham)
Regardless of its name change and highly publicized “split” from al Qaeda this past summer, Jabhat Fateh-al Sham (JFS), formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, remains firmly on the United States’ terrorist radar.
Counterterrorism experts have dismissed the idea that a real separation between al Qaeda and its Syrian affiliate has occurred, instead concluding that the purpose of the move was to enable JFS to procure new partnerships and additional sources of financing from individuals or organizations that were hesitant to support an overt al Qaeda associate.
“With approximately 10,000 fighters, JFS is now both the largest al Qaeda franchise and by many accounts, the most lethal,” writes Colin Clarke, Cipher Brief expert and Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation. “Veteran al Qaeda leaders like Saif al-Adl are thought to be among the current leadership directing JFS strategy in Syria.”
Since the divide, JFS has aligned with an increasing number of rebel militias in Syria, positioning itself to become an influential faction in Syrian politics down the road. “With no solution to the conflict on the horizon, it is likely that Jabhat Fateh al-Sham will eventually morph into one of the major political, not just military, players in Syria,” says Lina Khatib, Cipher Brief expert and Head of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Programme at Chatham House.
Al Shabaab (al Qaeda in Somalia)
Although concentrated international efforts, led by the Somali government and African Union Mission In Somalia (AMISOM) forces, have rooted out al Shabaab from several cities in southern Somalia over the past few years, al Qaeda’s affiliate in east Africa orchestrated deadly attacks on a near-weekly basis in the summer of 2016 and remains capable of inflicting mass casualties on civilians and militaries alike throughout the Horn of Africa.
“Al Shabaab’s current capabilities are probably at their strongest since the group’s loss of Kismayo [in 2012],” explains Daveed Gartenstein-Ross. “Al Shabaab is definitely in a position of strength at the moment.”
Former U.S. Ambassador to Cote d’Ivoire and Guinea, Phil Carter, graded al Shabaab’s current threat level as “very high,” maintaining that the group “can act whenever they desire to do so.”
And with Ethiopia, a key member of AMISOM, already withdrawing nearly 4,000 troops from Somalia since October and the AMISOM mission in its entirety set to expire in May 2017, the opportunity for an expanded al Shabaab reemergence is ripe.
“The fact is from al Shabaab’s perspective, they don’t have to win; they just don’t have to lose,” states Carter. “And that’s a big fact that we need to understand.”
Al Qaeda in North Africa (AQIM)
Al Qaeda’s offshoot in North Africa, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has taken advantage of political instability in Mali over the last half decade to hijack an ethnic Tuareg-nationalist rebellion and use it to take over the northern Mali state of Azawad.
Since moving into its Mali safe haven, AQIM has struck several western hotels in Mali, as well as in neighboring Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast. Furthermore, AQIM remains adept at abducting foreigners, as it has collected over $90 million in ransom payments since 2008.
ISIS in Iraq and Syria
Since Islamic State (ISIS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared a caliphate across ISIS controlled territory in Syria and Iraq two and a half years ago, the U.S. and its coalition partners have conducted more than 16,000 airstrikes against ISIS targets and have killed several top ISIS leaders including propaganda chief Mohammad al-Adnani, minister of war Omar al-Shishani, and finance minister Haji Iman.
In early December, the U.S. military estimated that more than 50,000 ISIS fighters– approximately 75 percent of ISIS’ battle-ready force – have been killed since the U.S. began its aerial assault.
Yet despite the loss of nearly one-third of its territory, ISIS units still patrol the streets of Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, and remain heavily entrenched in ISIS’ de facto capital in Raqqa, Syria. ISIS also continues to carry out mass atrocities against all who oppose its reign of terror and disseminate propaganda through a robust social media presence.
Part of ISIS’ appeal stems from its resilience in the face of the wrath of the international community.
“We need to better counter their narrative, which is that they’ve survived the greatest onslaught ever directed against a terrorist group in history,” says Bruce Hoffman.
“For them, the fact that they are still fighting is enormously evocative in terms of their appeal and propaganda; that they have stood up to this very formidable counterterrorism campaign and have not only survived but have even expanded geographically, despite our considerable efforts,” says Bruce Hoffman.” From their perspective, they have been able to survive attacks from the technologically most advanced military in the history of mankind.”
Boko Haram – ISIS in Nigeria
As recently as 2015, the Global Terrorism Index labeled Boko Haram the world’s deadliest terrorist organization based on the number of deaths attributed to the group in 2014. But earlier this week, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari announced that the Nigerian army had driven Boko Haram out of their last stronghold in the Sambisa forest. However, while such announcements demonstrate a certain degree of success, Boko Haram has a proven record of bouncing back, especially when on the verge of defeat.
“While the once-puissant group, affiliated since early 2015 with the so-called Islamic State, has lost almost all of the territory it once controlled in the northeastern part of the West African country and has been riven with factional disputes, it would be a mistake to forget its record of resilience or discount its continued threat potential,” says J. Peter Pham, Director of the Africa Center at the Atlantic Council.
Perhaps the most worrisome dynamic is that the African Union-sanctioned Multi National Joint Task Force (MNJTF), comprised of troops from Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger, might be able to initially clear areas of Boko Haram fighters, but lacks the resources necessary to keep these areas Boko Haram-free.
ISIS in North Africa (Libya and the Sinai)
Earlier this month, Libyan forces cleared ISIS from the coastal city of Sirte after a six-month battle - a critical achievement as the city had been viewed as a primary refuge for ISIS leaders fleeing Syria and Iraq.
ISIS initially took over Sirte in early 2015, establishing its most important base in North Africa and extending its authority along 150 miles of Mediterranean coastline. Brigades from the western Libyan city of Misrata launched a counterinsurgency against the jihadists beginning this past May, and the U.S. carried out more than 490 air strikes in support of the offensive.
An ISIS branch also roams the Sinai Peninsula, where it has initiated intermittent clashes with Egyptian soldiers. Egypt has spearheaded an initiative to uproot militants from the area and has bolstered security cooperation with Israel in light of this endeavor.
ISIS in Europe
With ISIS losing territory in its self-declared caliphate in Syria and Iraq, the group seems to have doubled down on executing external operations, particularly in Europe. ISIS cells struck in Paris, Brussels, and Istanbul - just to name a few – inflicting mass casualties and forcing many European countries to reexamine their procedures for intelligence collection, analysis, and sharing.
‘The terrorist threat to Europe is the greatest it has been since 9/11 and potentially at an all time high,” said Mitch Silber, Cipher Brief expert and former Director of Analysis at the NYPD, shortly after the March ISIS attack on the Brussels airport.
“The absolute number of individuals who are considered to be potential terrorist threats in countries like the UK, France, Germany, and Belgium are impossible to be monitored consistently and thus, the likelihood that someone at the bottom of the list, or someone who was reprioritized might turn to violence unbeknownst to security officials is very high,” explained Silber.
Lone Wolf
Attacks carried out by individuals inspired by ISIS propaganda, such as the shooting in Orlando or the driving of trucks through crowds in Nice and Berlin, are the most pressing terrorist threats facing the U.S. Such incidents are extremely difficult to predict and disrupt, as a significant amount of time, money, and resources are required to monitor every person who is suspected to be on the path to radicalization.
Part of why so many individuals have pledged allegiance to ISIS is because ISIS’ message is all encompassing, can attract disenfranchised people from a multitude of circumstances, and gives many a sense of belonging.
“It gives their purposeless life some purpose, and most people want to do something with their life, even psychopaths,” explains Patrick Skinner. “We’re really struggling because ISIS’ message is so just broad and illogical.”
One way to preempt the lone-wolf threat is by “working with particular Muslim communities in the U.S. to help educate and inform about the nature of the threat and to enlist their support in the effort to identify individuals who may be going down the path of radicalization,” explains Matthew Olsen, Cipher Brief expert and former Director of the National Counterterrorism Center.
But in the end, much of it comes down to weakening ISIS’ allure by defeating it in Syria and Iraq once and for all.
“The fact that ISIS was left relatively alone for such a long time, allowing them to achieve battlefield success and make a claim to creating a long vanished utopian Caliphate, increased their prestige and the rationale for “Islamic State” inspired terrorists to act in the organization’s name,” says Silber.
What Does 2017 Hold?
As we look towards 2017, it is clear that the international community has its work cut out the counterterrorism realm. While slow and steady progress has been achieved against ISIS, there has been a simultaneous reemergence of al Qaeda at the very moment it was deemed in decline.
Heading into the new year, Cipher Brief expert Bruce Hoffman emphasizes that al Qaeda’s main achievement has been its ability to “rehabilitate its image and portray itself as a more moderate, acceptable alternative to ISIS,” while Cipher Brief Kevin Hulbert highlights a “larger strategic failure against the spread of radical Muslim extremism.”
So buckle up and prepare for the long haul. Terrorism will continue to be, as it has often been labeled, a generational challenge.
Bennett Seftel is deputy director of editorial at The Cipher Brief. Follow him on Twitter @BennettSeftel.
