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War

Propaganda paintings with american flag an "Down with the USA text" in Tehran, Iran - stock photo

What Iran Wants and How It Can Still Fight

U.S. Vice President JD Vance is touting success out of the latest round of talks in Switzerland focused on seeking a permanent end to the war in [...] More

The Latest

How Gulf States Turned Crisis Into Confidence

The Epidemic of PatriotismHow war, intelligence, technology, and state competence are building a new nationalism in the Gulf.There is an old idea in [...] More

The Forgotten History Moscow Doesn’t Want Remembered

Sadly, few in the U.S. and Europe know the complicated history of the Kremlin’s actions in the years leading up to Hitler’s Invasion of the USSR. [...] More

U.S. Continues Maritime Blockade In Strait Of Hormuz

Middle East at the Brink: Norm Roule on Iran, Israel, and the High-Stakes Struggle Taking Shape

As tensions between Israel and Iran continue to evolve following a weekend Iranian ballistic missile attack against Israel, policymakers and markets [...] More

Invisible Conflict: Defending Against Hybrid Non-Kinetic Warfare

War doesn’t always look like war anymore. Hybrid non-kinetic warfare is an increasingly popular means for threat actors to orchestrate prolonged [...] More

Remembering the Americans Who Made Ukraine’s War Their Own

Remembering the Americans Who Made Ukraine’s War Their Own

This Memorial Day, The Cipher Brief is remembering the Americans who answered the call after Russia launched its unprovoked, deadly invasion of [...] More

CHINA-RUSSIA-IRAN-DIPLOMACY

How Russia and China are keeping Iran lethal

The ceasefire between the United States and Iran is barely holding. Pakistani mediators are still shuttling between capitals, fighting has flared in [...] More

The Pakistani General Running Washington’s Backchannel to Tehran

OPINION -- As Washington and Tehran edge closer to escalation, the most critical line of communication keeping the crisis from spiraling is being run [...] More

Why June Is the Oil Market’s Point of No Return

OPINION -- Two months into the U.S.-Iran war, the global oil market has shifted from shock to siege. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20 [...] More

Two Fronts, One War: Why Ukraine and Iran Are Part of the Same Fight

OPINION -- I recently had the opportunity to take part in a panel discussion on geopolitical issues at the Kyiv Security Forum in Kyiv. One of the [...] More

Russia’s Victory Day Parade Signals Anything But Victory

Снявший голову, по волосам не плачут(When your head is cut off, you don’t cry about your hair)- Old Russian ProverbOPINION – Russia is readying for [...] More

Half Measures and Maximum Risk in Iran

Over the past month, U.S. and Israeli operations have killed Iran’s senior leadership, destroyed over 155 naval vessels and roughly 300 ballistic [...] More

TOPSHOT-AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN-CONFLICT

Pakistan: Broker of Peace While Still at War

Just a few weeks ago, Pakistan, the host for fragile ceasefire talks aiming to end the war between the U.S. and Iran, was at war with Afghanistan in [...] More