Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has won over the American president. He now has a simple message for the American people: we’re the modern Gulf ally you’ve been looking for, to offset the threat of Iran, keep you safe from al Qaeda in Yemen and invest our oil wealth to bring you jobs.
It’s an attractive rebranding of the country maligned for failing to stop the Saudi militants behind the attacks of 9/11, crackdowns on freedom of expression at home, a military campaign in Yemen criticized as indiscriminate, and a fast and furious modernization program that included imprisoning wealthy, allegedly sticky-fingered Saudis in five-star luxury until they agreed to turn over purloined billions. That sounded great to Americans who’d heard for years about Saudi corruption, but not so great to U.S. businessmen who had partnered with some of those imprisoned Saudis.
The crown prince will meet with President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday – a trip he’s made before, but this time, it’s a sort of victory lap after he upended Saudi government, cementing the rule of his father King Salman bin Abdulaziz, and his own.
Then MBS will start a U.S. whistle-stop tour, meeting politicians, businessmen, think tankers, educators and the UN Secretary General. He will “highlight investment opportunities within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and also vet viable investment prospects within the United States that are ripe for reinforcing bi-lateral business ties,” the Saudi embassy in Washington said Monday, with visits lined up to Google, Apple and Lockheed Martin, among others and a final stop at Saudi Aramco’s facility in Houston, neatly reminding Americans of the oil that brought us together.
What the 32-year-old crown prince, or MBS, as he is known, hopes to get out of it is proof for conservatives back home that the pain of reform and the discomfort of modernization is worth it, as aging officials deal with the sudden retirement he thrust upon them when he replaced them with younger members of the royal family in February – ones who are ostensibly loyal to him.
It’s all part of a drive to step away from the stranglehold that corrupt royals, and iron-fisted religious authorities, had over the country, with one set robbing the country blind and the other imposing a strict version of Islam that allowed no concerts or cinemas. Now, MBS is visiting Disney to explore how best to revive Saudi film, as women prepare to drive for the first time in June – and they may not be throwing off their veils, but they’re being encouraged to exchange their black head-to-toe abayas for color.
The U.S. trip could gain MBS prizes like lucrative long-term Saudi investment agreements in U.S. technology, even possible cooperation on nuclear technology, though Riyadh is reportedly pushing for uranium enrichment capability as well. That worries some in Congress and beyond, who think that could contribute to a nuclear arms race in the Gulf.
Both U.S. and Saudi officials said they’d be discussing peaceful nuclear technology. Saudi Foreign Minister Adel-al Jubeir told reporters in Washington on Monday that his country was discussing the matter with Russia and France, though he left the distinct impression that the U.S. was the preferred partner. MBS told CBS’s 60 Minutes Sunday that “Saudi Arabia does not want to acquire any nuclear bomb, but without a doubt if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible.”
The nuclear issue aside, other high-tech deals could provide jobs back home in Saudi Arabia, where 70 percent of the country is under the age of 30, with the official unemployment rate around 5.6 percent (of Saudi males), and unofficial estimates ranging much higher.
Cementing the relationship with the Trump administration could also provide MBS cover for the expensive Saudi military intervention in the three-year-old Yemeni civil war. The two leaders will surely stand shoulder-to-shoulder, lamenting Iran’s regional meddling, and specifically blaming Iran for arming Houthi rebels and stretching out the conflict. Saudi Foreign Minister Jubeir gave reporters a preview, telling them that Iran was behind the roughly 100 missiles fired by Houthi rebels from Yemen toward Saudi territory over the past year.
That cooperation is under fire from Capitol Hill, however. The Senate is considering a resolution to end U.S. military aid to Saudi for the Yemen conflict, including mid-air refueling for Saudi and UAE warplanes that are conducting air strikes in Yemen. The U.S. military says it provides logistical assistance and intelligence but does not control where the Saudis strike. Jubeir says the Saudi military follows U.S. targeting standards, and also works to keep humanitarian routes open – but humanitarian groups routinely report being unable to reach ports, towns or cities where some 19 million people are struggling to get enough food. The Senate may not be able to stop U.S. military assistance to the Saudis in the Yemen fight, but lawmakers will try to focus the crown prince’s attention on it while he’s here.
The Saudi prince will also be facing some pressure from the White House to resolve the continuing Saudi standoff with Qatar. It began last year, when Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. were among Gulf countries that blocked their air space and cut trading ties with Qatar, demanding that it do more to crack down on terrorist financiers inside the country, and stop funding terrorist groups like al-Nusra in Syria – charges Qatar denies.
The Saudis may have thought they would be facing less pressure to end the blockade, after the departure of Qatar’s main U.S. proponent, the tweet-fired former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Saudi Minister Jubeir was careful not to gloat about Tillerson’s departure, but called his nominated replacement, CIA Director Mike Pompeo, “a friend.”
Jubeir said Qatar’s recent moves to sign a memorandum with the U.S. on terror financing and allow U.S. Treasury officials greater access to its banking system was a start, but said Riyadh was in “no hurry” to end the standoff.
“All of those are good steps but they need to do more,” he said.
That theme is apparently getting old at the White House. A senior administration official said Monday that Trump was “initially content to let the Arab brothers work this out among themselves,” but is now concerned about the long-term impact on counterterrorism cooperation and needs “to have these countries work with each other.” The official, speaking anonymously to reporters as a condition of the briefing, said Trump will push ahead with a planned U.S.-Gulf Cooperation Council summit this spring where he’ll try to break the logjam dividing the countries.
On Iran, both sides seem to be in agreement on declaring Iran as a malevolent force, fighting proxy wars throughout the region, and both signaled the Iran nuclear deal minted by the Obama administration fell far short, but neither side tipped their hand on future policy.
“The president hasn’t decided,” how to move forward on the nuclear deal, the senior U.S. official said, but added that Trump wanted to pulse the views of Gulf nations on the matter, because he said they hadn’t been consulted the first time.
The Israeli-Palestinian peace process will also come up, both sides said, but neither predicted any breakthroughs, with Iran, Yemen and Syria on the Mideast front-burner.
For Trump, who at least publicly has seemed more comfortable with Philippine strongman Rodrigo Duterte than German Chancellor Angela Merkel, this meeting is a slam dunk: an ambitious young son of a ruler has come to make a deal, or several. Brash, take-no-prisoners moves are something Trump understands. The country will be a tougher audience.
This article was corrected Tuesday, 20 March 2018, to add Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir's full name on first reference.
