Whether President-elect Donald Trump will keep in place the Obama administration sanctions against Russia for its interference in the U.S. election remains to be seen. Trump has repeatedly scoffed at the Intelligence Community’s conclusion that Russia hacked into the Democratic National Committee in an effort to help his candidacy, but on Thursday said he would meet with the IC to “be updated on the facts.” Russia has indicated it is considering its response to the sanctions that were announced by the White House on Thursday. The Cipher Brief’s Managing Editor Pam Benson spoke to network member John Sipher, a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service Member and Russia expert, about how the likely tit-for-tat might play out.
The Cipher Brief: Are these sanctions sufficient? Are they enough to get Russia’s attention?
John Sipher: They are certainly enough to get Russia’s attention. I think that the sanctions and actions in response to the Russian cyber attacks are appropriate. However, they will probably be seen as too little, too late. Further, from my experience, I suspect that the Russians will likely get the best of the short term tit-for-tat expulsion of intelligence officers and diplomats. The U.S. actions will bite only if they are followed-up by continued U.S. resolve. If the Russians expel U.S. diplomats, the U.S. must be prepared to up the ante and take further actions that hurt Russian interests.
The Russians are masters at constructing tactical responses. They will almost certainly retaliate immediately and throw out a similar number of Americans from Russia. If we are not prepared to follow-up with a second wave of actions, the U.S. will likely suffer as much as the Russians in the short term. The U.S. has tried to punish Russia before by expelling intelligence officers. Russia has well over 150 intelligence officers in the U.S. while the U.S. has far fewer in Russia. While the expulsion of 35 Russian intelligence officers is more than we have kicked out in recent years, it still leaves the Russians with a substantial cadre of officers in the U.S.
Similar to the 2001 arrest of FBI Special Agent Robert Hanssen when the U.S. expelled Russian intelligence officers from the U.S., they will make sure to kick out innocent, non-intelligence officers as well as CIA spies. The various U.S. Agencies represented in Russia will feel the pain of the expulsions and impress on their seniors in Washington to resist further expulsions of Russians for fear that it will result in losing more of their staff in Moscow. The Russians are well aware of U.S. bureaucratic politics and realize that the U.S. is unlikely to up the ante. The expulsions in 2001 designed to punish Russia ended up doing more damage to U.S. interests in the short run.
At the end of the day, the U.S. will end up losing as many or more diplomats in Moscow than the Russians lose in the U.S. Unless and until the U.S. is prepared to throw out all Russian intelligence officers from the U.S. and inflict serious pain on the Russian intelligence effort in the U.S., such measures will have a limited effect.
The bigger problem for Russia is the Administration's promise to publish additional details on the Russian active measures campaign. This will make clear to those outside government circles that the Russians have been interfering in U.S. government and private sector activities for a long time. It will also put additional pressure on the incoming Trump Administration, making it harder for them to deny Russian involvement and cement closer relations with Moscow.
The sanctioning of senior Russian intelligence officers is appropriate but will do little harm to those officers or their services, and will not change Russian behavior. Only continued U.S. resolve and coordinated action with our allies will be able to impress on the Russians the need to change their behavior. In this sense, the U.S. should look to means to strengthen our support to NATO and Ukraine.
TCB: But you feel the U.S. had to do it even if the history shows the U.S. usually loses these tit for tat battles? Does it send a message to others beyond Russia?
JS: I think it does. A lot of it is going to depend on how it plays out. I worry that political narrative will focus on the timing of the Administration’s actions. It is easy to conclude that the actions are not credible this late in the President Obama’s term. If Congress is supportive of continued resolve to thwart Russian activities, and the next Administration signals its displeasure with aggressive Russian actions, Russia will get the message. As I’ve written in these pages before, Putin is a bully and only responds to credible threats. If he tosses out U.S. diplomats, we need to be ready to hit back hard.
All in all, given what the Russians did to us, it was an appropriate thing to do, but I think we should have done it earlier.
TCB: In the statement, it does mention there will be other actions taken that would not be publicized.
JS: I think that is good. We need to take action on issues that really matter to the Russians. What Putin cares about is internal political stability and maintaining a sphere of influence along his borders. We need to make clear that we have the means and willingness to threaten that stability if he continues with his boorish activities. If it looks like we’re actually trying to help support Ukraine, arm Ukraine, or put more forces in NATO, more forces in the Baltics, that’s the kind of stuff that scares the Russians and puts them in a tough place.
We continue to treat the Russians as responsible players on the international stage. We will need to increase our covert activities and discontinue our overt support until they earn a right to be treated better.
TCB: The FBI and DHS put out a report with more specifics, declassified information, on what the Russians were doing. Do you have any concern that by doing this, they will be revealing U.S capabilities, sources and methods?
JS: I don’t worry about sources and methods in this case. There has been enough information gleaned from private security companies that provides a solid outline of what the Russians are up to. Of course, the Intelligence Community will protect their most sensitive sources, but there remains a lot of information that will be of use to the public, U.S. corporate interests and our allies. Most people don’t have the time or means to put together the details of these Russian attacks. A public document that pulls together the key facts on how the Russians use these methods to sow chaos can only be a good thing. The more public information, the better. It won’t stop the Russians from their lies and bluster, but it will make it that much harder to hide their continuing activities in the U.S. and Europe.
TCB: Could it reveal to the Russians how the U.S. knows this information?
JS: No. We have a long history of protecting secrets so I’m not worried that a public document is going to benefit the Russians. In this case, the sloppy and brazen attacks make it pretty easy for the U.S. to make its case. There may be some sensitive sources at the margins that will militate against providing specific evidence. However, I am confident that any public document will not risk revealing any real secrets.
All in all, I think it was a good thing to do. It was appropriate and measured, but shows seriousness. It will certainly get spun in a different way. However, if the Administration maintains the pressure and is willing to turn up the dial depending on the Russian response, Putin will get the message.
Politically, it does put Trump in a tougher position. Any effort to publicize the information will make it crystal clear that this was a real threat, and that the Russians were involved. He has tried to deny the obvious for some time now, but it will be increasingly difficult to do as the information becomes public and the Congress ratifies the report. I think the Republican Congressmen and Senators have already picked up on that, and they’re going to keep pressure on Trump to keep pressure on the Russians. It’s going to be interesting to watch how that plays out.
Pam Benson is the managing editor of The Cipher Brief.
