CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — On the outskirts of the battle-worn eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, where Russia’s most effective mercenary force once tallied Moscow’s most significant territorial gains in nearly a year, Ukrainian forces say they are now looking to capitalize on the resulting turmoil of a Russian revolt that ended over the weekend almost as surprisingly as it started.
“A bit of an advance has started from the Ukrainian side,” a Ukrainian artillerist told The Cipher Brief, who declined to be named out of security concerns. “We are all moving forward, bearing down on the enemy.”
In the fog of war, it is not clear precisely what territorial gains Ukrainian forces have made in the aftermath of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s short-lived mutiny, or if the two events are related. But as of Sunday, a United Kingdom Ministry of Defense intelligence report noted that Ukrainian forces have indeed "re-set and have again been undertaking major offensive operations on three main axes in southern and eastern Ukraine.”
Those forces, the report added, were “making gradual but steady progress.” Almost simultaneously, senior Ukrainian leadership said news of this weekend's events in Russia had been accompanied by “applause” from commanders of Ukraine’s Eastern Group of Forces, according to spokesman Serhii Cherevatiy, with morale "at its highest level,” according to soldiers interviewed by The Cipher Brief.
“Any chaos and disorder on the enemy’s side benefits us,” Cherevatiy added.
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As the events unfolded, video of a notable drone commander – known as “Magyar” – who was apparently eating popcorn while watching reports of the revolt went viral, with a flurry of similar posts peppering social media.
Cherevaty meanwhile said Russian defenses in Bakhmut have indeed been weakening, with the average number of clashes down to approximately 18 per day, as opposed to the 30-50 that had been the norm — a decline that comes amidst Wagner force withdrawals.
Ukrainian member of parliament Volodymyr Ariev defined the situation Monday as a “step by step” improvement, with the Ukrainian counteroffensive continuing across the east and south of the country.
Still, Ariev, noted, “we understand that war will not end, in any case, inside Russia.”
“We should count on ourselves,” he added.
Meanwhile, Prigozhin, the man behind this weekend's surprise uprising, on Monday said he had no intention of seizing power, but instead had his forces march on Moscow “to demonstrate our protest” over what he said was ill treatment of his forces and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
And yet President Vladimir Putin, in a public address also on Monday, said the “the organizers of the rebellion” had betrayed “their country, their people, [and] those who were drawn into the crime,” without mentioning Prigozhin by name.
Over the weekend, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko brokered a deal that would allow Prigozhin to leave for Belarus, with criminal charges against him dropped. But by Monday afternoon, the case against the Wagner boss was still open and under investigation, according to Russian state media.
The Cipher Brief is also closely following events and will continue bringing you expert perspectives on what’s happening inside Russia and how it is impact Moscow’s war on Ukraine throughout the weekend.
