As 2016 draws to a close and along with it the presidency of Barack Obama, it is perhaps time to reflect on the relationship with Russia during the eight years of his presidency and consider what might have been different. It is fair to say relations between the United States and Russia at the moment are the worst they have been since the end of the Cold War and perhaps worse than some periods during the Cold War. The risk of accidental conflict seems higher now than in many years, with U.S. and Russian war planes conducting combat sorties in close proximity in Syrian airspace, repeated harassment of U.S. and NATO aircraft and ships in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere, and the open discussion of nuclear war by the Russian government and civil defense drills being conducted in Moscow. This on top of aggression in Ukraine, cyber intrusion in the U.S. electoral process, incremental aggression into the Republic of Georgia, and possible Russian sponsorship of a failed coup in Montenegro to depose a Prime Minister intent on bringing that country closer to the EU and into NATO.
To be fair, relations with Vladimir Putin’s Russia were deteriorating when Obama took office. The Russian’s felt betrayed by U.S. actions in the war in Iraq and the perceived failure to live up to promises to withdraw military forces from bases in Central Asia established to defeat al Qaeda after 9/11, among a litany of other Russian grievances real or perceived.
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