CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — Members of the world’s largest and most powerful security alliance descended on Vilnius, Lithuania over the weekend in what is considered a critical moment for the group and its revived importance in both Europe and Asia.
Over two days of official meetings, leaders of the 31 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nations are expected to discuss a series of issues, including those focused on Ukraine’s counteroffensive and its potential membership, the aftermath of an aborted mutiny in Russia, Turkey’s hesitancy to approve Sweden into the club, an array of mounting cyber threats, as well as China's expanding influence, among other topics.
Pointedly, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg — who will remain in office for another year — said he expected an announced boost in military spending during the summit, which officially begins Tuesday, while emphasizing NATO's principal focus on Ukraine, some 18 months after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his "special military operation."
“For 500 days, Moscow has brought death and destruction to the heart of Europe, seeking to destroy Ukraine and divide NATO,” Stoltenberg told reporters on Friday. “At the summit, we will make Ukraine even stronger, and set out a vision for its future.”
In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said leaders needed to look “soberly” at Ukraine’s NATO bid, and suggested “that we focus in Vilnius on what is now an absolute priority: Namely, to strengthen the real fighting power of Ukraine.”
U.S. President Joe Biden said Sunday that it was “premature” to allow Ukraine to join NATO amidst the current war, noting that he did not “think there is unanimity in NATO about whether or not to bring Ukraine into the NATO family now.”
“Ukraine, even before the war, is still an emerging democracy with immature democratic institutions,” noted former U.S. Ambassador to NATO, Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute (Ret.) “If the membership action plan is set aside, there will still be due attention paid to these democratic values.”
President Biden also spoke over the phone this weekend with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a bid to pressure Ankara into accepting Sweden's membership, saying he would like to see Stockholm's inclusion "as soon as possible." Sweden's ascension requires unanimous approval from all NATO members.
Amidst heavy security and Lithuania's first-ever hosting of the annual summit, The Cipher Briefis outlining some of the recent comments and events that will help provide context to better understanding what's at stake this week.
TIMELINE
- July 9, 2023 — In an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, President Biden says it is “premature” to allow Ukraine to join NATO amidst the current war, adding that such considerations could only occur after a peace agreement with Russia was in place.
- July 9, 2023 — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Joe Biden hold a call to discuss Sweden's NATO bid. Stockholm has taken steps in the right direction, Ankara says. But, it added, those steps are not considered sufficient for NATO membership, given that Kurdistan Workers Party supporters continue to gather for demonstrations in Sweden.
- July 8, 2023 — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expresses support for Ukraine to join NATO.
- July 7, 2023 — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan questions Sweden’s military capacity, while expressing concerns about PKK sympathizers inside Sweden. “Those who advise us should answer the following questions frankly: How can Turkey trust a country where terrorists roam its streets?” “How can a state that does not distance itself from terrorist organizations contribute to NATO? How can those who do not fight terrorism fight the enemies of the alliance?” he said.
- July 7, 2023 —Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announces plans to attend NATO summit, in a bid to remind of Chinese and Russian activity in Asia, especially around Japan.
- July 6, 2023 —Wagner mercenary group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin returns to Russia, roughly two weeks after his failed uprising against the Kremlin.
- July 5, 2023 —Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan says Sweden has taken steps in the right direction for its NATO bid with anti-terrorism legislation but continued protests there by Kurdish militant sympathizers has undermined its moves, Erdogan's office said.
- June 24, 2023 —Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin says his forces have crossed into Russia and are ready to go “all the way” against the Russian military, taking over Russia’s Southern Military District headquarters in the city of Rostov-on-Don.
- June 19, 2023 – NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says the alliance will not issue an invitation for Ukraine to join the club at a summit in Vilnius in mid-July.
- June 14, 2023 —Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says NATO should not expect his country to approve Sweden’s application to join the alliance before a July summit due to Trukey’s security concerns.
- June 7, 2023 — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says Ukraine must be given security assurances after its war with Russia.
- May 31, 2023 — Macron calls for Ukraine to be given “strong and tangible” security guarantees, but does not call for full-fledged NATO membership.
- May 17, 2023 — NATO announces updates to military plans over how the alliance would respond to a Russian attack, signaling fundamental shift in NATO planning and apparent the need for it in Europe.
- April 4, 2023 — Finland becomes member of NATO. Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto finalized the accession process by delivering the official document to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
- February 20, 2023 —President Joe Biden makes surprise visit to Kyiv, his first since Russia’s 2022 invasion, saying “Americans stand with you and the world stands with you.” President Zelensky adds that Biden’s visit brings Ukraine “closer to victory.”
- January 25, 2023 —Germany approves sending tanks to Ukraine, providing Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv and allowing other European countries to export the vehicle. Almost simultaneously, President Biden says the US will send 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
- December 22, 2022 —Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivers remarks to Congress, and calls for “new institutions, new alliances” and calls for “a union of responsible countries that have the strength and consciousness to stop conflicts immediately.”
- September 30, 2022 — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky calls his country a “De facto” NATO member, and announces he is accelerating his country’s bid to formally join the alliance in a 7-minute message released on Telegram.
- February 24, 2022 — Russia invades Ukraine in an escalation of a war that began with the taking of Crimea in 2014.
- February 2, 2022 — The U.S. says it plans to 3,000 extra troops to NATO members Poland and Romania, and warns of additional economic sanctions if Russian President Vladimir Putin takes military action.
- December 9, 2021 — U.S. President Joe Biden says Ukraine’s bid to join the NATO military alliance was in its own hands.
- September 1, 2021 — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with US President Joe Biden in Washington, pressing for a commitment on NATO membership.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because national security is everyone’s business.
