The Olympic Games kick off today in Brazil – a country plagued by a political crisis and economic downturn. The Cipher Brief’s Kaitlin Lavinder spoke to Andrea Murta, associate director at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, about the stakes for Brazil. Murta, a Brazil native, says expectations are so low that the Games are likely to be classified a success.
TCB: What are the stakes for Brazil if the Olympic Games go well, and what are the stakes if the Games go poorly – for example, if there is a major national security breach?
Andrea Murta: The expectations for the Games have been lowered a ton in the past year, due to a number of problems Brazil has been having: the political turmoil, the economic crisis, the public health concern with the Zika virus, and everything else that has affected the Olympics' preparations. The good thing about that is it is very likely Brazil will more than reach the low expectations that have been set for the Olympics at this time.
Brazilians haven’t really been celebrating the Games, as has been the case in previous Olympics in London, Beijing, and Atlanta. They have been very concerned about the crises that are affecting the country. So a minimal success in the Games – if everything goes according to plan, if all of the competitions occur without a major logistical incident – will be counted as a success for the Brazilian government, the Rio de Janeiro state, and the municipal government. Right now, they have the advantage of having these low expectations.
I don’t think there’s a high risk of a major, international security breach, although this is hard to predict. The Brazilian government has been working extensively on the security preparations for the Olympics, together with governments abroad. They have been collaborating with the government of the United States, the Interpol, etc. I am not an expert on terrorism, but I see this as being a factor of a much larger problem that the whole world is facing.
A larger and more likely problem for Brazilian authorities would be if there are incidents related to urban crime. If preparations fail to limit the regular levels of crime in Rio de Janeiro and to contain drug gangs, it would be a major problem for the local governments in Brazil. On the other side of that, too strong an approach could backfire. In past events, very large security operations did contain violence, but allegedly involved police brutality. It is a fine line, and this carries a bigger risk of compromising the Games and the government’s efforts for the Olympics, not to mention the safety of locals and visitors.
TCB: When you say that if all goes smoothly the Games will be called a “success,” what does that mean? A “success” in the eyes of the domestic population or the international community or both?
AM: I think both. And by success, I don’t mean it will be a huge celebration, because I think that ship has sailed. Everyone’s expectations have been lowered for the Games in Brazil, which is kind of sad for the prospects of having future Games in developing countries. But at the same time, I think that the expectation of problems has been raised so much, that by having no major hurdles or incidents of violence or infrastructure problems, the Games will not present a problem to Brazil’s image nationally or abroad.
TCB: Would you agree then that the benefits of Brazil hosting the Games would not be outweighed if there is some kind of issue, for example with regular crime?
AM: I don’t think it would tilt the situation either way. Brazilians are enjoying the “extra security” that has been brought to Rio because of the Games. I’ve talked to many Brazilians who are doing activities around the city that they normally wouldn’t do, because they feel safer with the extra policing on the streets. I think that if that was breached somehow, Brazilians would say ‘oh, things are back to the way they used to be.’ So it would be a sort of confirmation of expectations and no huge surprise to anyone. In that sense, I don’t think it would have a major impact for the future of the government in Brazil in any palpable way, because frankly, that’s what Brazilians are used to.
TCB: Brazil, like all other countries that host major sporting events, has spent a lot of money preparing for the Games. If the Games go well, this would seem justified; if they don’t, this could seem very unjustified. What do you think any reaction will be with regards to this economic component?
AM: Again, I think it will be a measured reaction either way. The Olympics are coveted because of the developments they can bring to a city in the long-term, even before the Games start. And Rio achieved less than they expected, in terms of funding and in terms of the public-private partnerships. According to reports, 57 percent of the money for the work done on the Olympics was obtained through public-private partnerships. Brazilian authorities were hoping this share would be higher.
We must, however, acknowledge the legacy of the Games that is already visible in Rio. Not everything the city government wanted to do worked well: for example, cleaning up the waters of the Guanabara Bay. But they also did a major revitalization program of Rio’s downtown area. They made beautiful and important museums that are already huge tourist attractions in the city. They created a revolution in public transportation. They already launched new subway lines and a revamped system for buses and light rail in the city. All of that is already being used by the local population.
What happens in the competitions themselves will have less of an impact on the perception of how Brazilians see the Games, than the use of this legacy work the city did. In terms of selling tickets, the number is already lower than they imagined when Brazil won the bid. So what people want to see now is that the work they have done is of good quality and will benefit the population well beyond the Games themselves. And I think that even though it’s less than they hoped for, that has been achieved.
TCB: Can you briefly unravel current Brazilian politics and how the Games could affect that, as former President Dilma Rousseff awaits impeachment proceedings?
AM: The only direct impact the Games have is on the scheduling of the final vote in the Senate on the impeachment. They have tentatively scheduled that for August 29, because they didn’t want to have major demonstrations during the Olympics. At this point, it’s kind of a foregone conclusion that this impeachment will pass in the Senate and the Temer government will be confirmed.
Public view of the Temer government is very separate from the image of the Olympics. I don’t think it will change anyone’s minds about him, regardless of the results of the Games, regardless of whether they go well or not.
The impact of the Games on the political situation is really minor. It’s just that now Brazil is trying to avoid showing the world the problems it has in domestic politics, while everyone’s looking intensely at the country because of the Olympics.
TCB: Is there anything else you would like to add?
AM: I think the outside world sees the Olympics as more of a failure than it really is. In terms of the sports competitions themselves, I think they will go without any problems – the athletes that made the decision to go to Rio will enjoy a competition up to standard. It’s a pity that so many external problems have affected the image of the Olympics so strongly. But I think a lot of that is overreaction.
