After another act of defiance by the North Korean regime, all eyes turned to China, seen as the best hope to apply leverage to the regime in Pyongyang. President Trump tweeted “North Korea is a rogue nation which has become a great threat and embarrassment to China, which is trying to help but with little success.”
It appears that the nuclear test was meant just as much as a message to Xi Jinping and Beijing as it was to Washington. The Cipher Brief's Callie Wang asked Dennis Wilder, former Special Assistant to President George W. Bush and Senior Director for East Asian Affairs on the National Security Council about China’s role in managing this escalating threat on the Korean peninsula.
The Cipher Brief: Can Kim Jong Un be deterred? With each test, he seems to be saying “don’t even consider regime change, I have nuclear weapons.” Can anything be done to convince him that regime change is not the U.S. intent and to stop his drive for nuclear weapons?
Dennis Wilder: Kim Jong Un has made up his mind and is hell bent to create an intercontinental ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead capable of targeting the United States.
The question is not whether he can be deterred but whether the elite of North Korea can be convinced that Kim is taking a path that does not lead to peace and stability but rather leads to the destruction of the North Korean state.
TCB: After each successive test, the international community has returned rhetoric and sanctions, with no apparent impact. Is stalemate the best option here?
Wilder: The sanctions imposed on North Korea have been incomplete and thus not a real test of whether stringent sanctions would have an effect on the perception among the North Korean elite about Kim's strategy. After all, Chinese-North Korean trade increased in the past year as did economic growth in North Korea. The two are related.
TCB: Speaking of China, Xi Jinping is hosting a BRICS summit today. Some have noted that this test is directed more toward China and Xi than anyone else – perhaps to pressure him into speaking to Trump about negotiations. Do you agree that it was directed at Xi? And, if so, do you think Xi Jinping will be coerced by such a measure?
Wilder: I agree that this test was in part directed at Xi Jinping but the goal was to demonstrate to Xi that Kim Jong-un would not be intimidated or deterred by the new United Nations Security Council sanctions. These new sanctions are the first time that Beijing has really taken steps to hurt the North Korean economy as demonstrated by the fact that Chinese businesses are complaining about the loss of North Korean seafood and the reports of smuggling activity.
Kim is warning the Chinese that drastic measures, such as an oil embargo, will not work and indeed could lead China and North Korea into a military conflict.
TCB: How does President Trump’s apparent intent to withdraw from the U.S.’ free trade deal with South Korea impact Washington’s ability to work with Seoul on this issue?
Wilder: I do not believe that the United States was serious about withdrawing from the Korea Free Trade Agreement but rather that this story was floated to put pressure on South Korea to renegotiate the Treaty. President Moon, after this test, will be eager to strengthen the US-ROK alliance and relations will probably improve, not deteriorate.
