OPINION — While the war has yet to conclude, we have enough information to create a preliminary net assessment of its effects on U.S. security and prosperity. Spoiler alert: the war is on track to be a net negative for Americans.
Instead of focusing on variously articulated war aims, this assessment strives to assess a selected but broader range, admittedly unscientifically derived, of U.S. interests. This scorecard is designed to simply show whether these interests have improved (↑), declined (↓), or remained about the same (→).
Let’s start with the positive and work our way to more negative longer-term effects:
↑ The Iranian regime has been historically weakened. Regime change is out. President Trump has long forgotten his promise to anti-regime Iranians that “help is on the way” and Iran “will be yours to take;” and the idea that changing leaders equals “regime change” does not meet the smell test. But there is no doubt that military operations have deeply weakened and probably fractured Iran’s regime. While the level of destruction is not yet knowable, Iran’s steel industry, largest bridge, and other dual-use productive capabilities are in ruins. Iran’s more fragile, but also probably more brutal, regime will have difficulty managing Iran’s overwhelming and now significantly worsened economic and environmental crises. More political instability is likely down the road, perhaps providing an opening to the opposition but more likely to different flavors of Iran’s hardline security leadership.
↑ Iran’s missiles and missile production facilities are significantly degraded, although Iran retains enough missiles and drones to continue to threaten the region. The degradation does not materially affect the U.S. homeland although this posed a threat to Israel, because Iran would not have been able to produce an intercontinental ballistic missile for nearly a decade, assuming we didn’t stop them along the way. Given the lessons that Iran has absorbed—literally, during the 12-day war in June and this round—it was and is highly unlikely that Iran would strike the U.S. or Israel pre-emptively. Rather, Iran is likely to rebuild its missile capabilities to deter and retaliate against future attacks. The degradation of Iran’s capabilities could prove a Pyrrhic victory, because Israel and/or the U.S. will strike Iran again if Iran rebuilds its military or nuclear program, potentially restarting the cycle of war.
→ Iran is not likely to be able to produce a nuclear weapon for years, as President Trump said on 31 March. But that was exactly where we were after U.S. and Israeli strikes “obliterated” the program or, more accurately, deeply buried most of it, during the 12-day war. The location and accessibility of the 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium have not yet been verified, absent IAEA inspectors. Some experts have asserted that the remnant Iranian regime will now be more likely to pursue a nuclear weapon, a process ironically constrained by the now deceased Supreme Leader. Regardless, unless this fissile material is dealt with via negotiations, a possibility, or a U.S. special forces operation, the war has not materially changed the threat or the ability to manage it.
→ Iran’s proxies remain capable of inflicting harm on U.S. interests and on Israel. The defeat of Iran’s proxies was probably overstated, in hindsight. Hezbollah retained missile and rocket capabilities that have surprised Israel, and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have struck numerous U.S. facilities and kidnapped a U.S. journalist. Israel has moved into Lebanon, threatening to occupy the south, and is imposing major losses on Hezbollah. But Israel’s approach is not likely to military defeat Hezbollah and will prove counterproductive to U.S. goals of a more stable Lebanon, at least in the near term. Yemen’s Houthis have fired largely performative missiles and drones toward Israel, but its limited involvement allows it to retain and rebuild capabilities that could again threaten the Red Sea and U.S. regional interests and partners.
↓ Freedom of navigation has ended through the Strait of Hormuz; Iran now effectively controls it. It is a sad irony that the presence of U.S. forces in the region prior to the war had deterred Iran from seriously threatening traffic in the Strait for since the 1980s. But the overwhelming U.S-Israeli strikes on Iran removed this deterrent effect and reduced conventional forces, leaving Iran primarily asymmetric tools and economic points of leverage as its best response. Iran is now building a practice of taking tolls or striking arrangements with sponsors or collaborators. This is not likely to change unless the U.S. and Iran negotiate an end to the conflict that includes Iran’s agreement to stop threatening and extorting traffic in the Strait. Absent this, it is likely that Iran will retain leverage and reap a windfall from permits and other fees, however illegal under international law.
↓ Americans’ wallets will be squeezed for some months and perhaps into next year. While the U.S. economy is more insulated than most U.S. partners’ and allies’, we are hardly immune from the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, with knock-on effects for gas, derivatives like diesel, helium for semiconductors, fertilizers, plastics, and a range of chemicals. It is likely to take months to resume pre-war oil and gas production and shipping levels through the Strait, with cascading timelines for shipments to arrive and refining. Diesel prices, which have risen 40%, are hiking the cost of shipping, airfares, farm production (along with fertilizer price rises), and will ultimately cause food inflation. Sustained overall inflation, high mortgage rates, and lower growth are not certainties, but the risk is growing.
↓ Terrorist attacks are on the rise. Since February 28, Iran and Hezbollah have mounted or inspired attacks, mostly foiled, in at least seven countries, primarily targeting U.S. personnel and assets and Israeli or Jewish facilities from the U.S. and Western Europe to Iran’s neighboring countries, Kuwait and Azerbaijan. With the disruption to IRGC command-and-control, attacks by lone wolves and recently recruited criminal proxies are more likely, but sleeper cells reportedly have been activated and have been present in the U.S. and Europe since the 1980s. Some thwarted attacks have been more serious: Azerbaijan disrupted an IRGC plot to bomb a critical oil pipeline and Kuwait rolled up a Hezbollah assassination network targeting the country's leadership. And lone wolf attacks are harder to defend against, already taken Americans’ lives in Austin, Texas. As counterterrorism capabilities have improved over the decades, Iran's success rate dropped precipitously, but the volume of attempts has increased dramatically in compensation. With reportedly diminished U.S. counterterrorism resources, the odds of success in the U.S. appear higher.
↓ The Transatlantic Alliance is at risk, with Allied and Trump anger hitting new highs. A permenant rewiring is not inconceivable, as this crisis piles on top of Washington’s gambit to obtain Greenland, tariff and trade pressures, and efforts to undermine the EU and its regulatory powers. While it is unlikely that President Trump will formally withdraw from NATO, its ability to deter Russia will be diminished as its capabilities and cohesion erode. Canadian Prime Minister Carney’s calls for a “middle power” coalition are hard to implement, but more countries are on board with the concept. More collaboration on specific issues like critical minerals supply chains and reopening the Strait of Hormuz are likely to grow either separately or in parallel to collaboration with the U.S., which remains a practical requirement. One has to worry about effects on the US-UK special relationship and the Five Eyes alliance.
↓ Russia gains the most. In addition to the Transatlantic rift, the war ties down U.S. military capabilities, undermines NATO capabilities and cohesion, removes pressure on Moscow to end its own war, and further limits arms flows to Ukraine. In practice, it gives Russia the ability to fight this war longer and to impose greater costs on Ukraine. With U.S. sanctions lifted, Russia’s budget crisis is stabilized. And the impunity Trump has handed Putin for helping Iran target Americans will encourage Putin to push the boundaries of its gray-zone attacks further, until or unless President Trump decides to react.
↓ China, having prepared for such a shock, also stands to gain strategically. U.S. weapons intended to deter China have been expended or withdrawn from the Asia Pacific, leaving gaps in air defenses. Shortages of U.S. precision-strike weapons (like Tomahawks) and air defenses will limit and delay planned acquisitions by our allies. With U.S. forces depleted in the near term, will President Trump be more likely to grant concessions to President Xi in order to keep the peace? Economically, though not completely isolated from global economic shocks given its export dependence, China’s dominance in green technologies will pay dividends as the rest of the world drives to diminish import dependence. Strategically, China is playing up its role as a stabilizing global power, although this has limits given its unwillingness to directly engage in ending the war, provide security, or help neighbors that have asked China for emergency supplies of fuel and fertilizer.
↓ Economic shocks rippling through the Asia-Pacific threaten promises on U.S. trade and investment and risk political fallout in allied countries. The war is a crisis of both supply and price in Asia. Governments’ across the region have turned to emergency spending to replace Gulf imports and increase subsidies, spiking deficits and debt in turn. Poorer countries’ fuel reserves are running dangerously low, forcing austerity measures, business contraction, and closures. Violence and protests already have broken out, including in India, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Bangladesh. Second order effects on tourism, food production, and potentially remittances from Gulf states will linger. Financial strains will raise domestic pressures to pull back on investment and trade pledges that already are seen as unfairly benefitting the U.S. Third-order effects of political instability and upheaval catalyzed by financial distress is likely over the next few years, for example in the Philippines.
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