President Trump will visit Beijing later this month for the first time in almost a decade. As a former CIA clinical psychologist, I have conducted many remote assessments of world leaders. I believe this summit presents both great opportunities, and great dangers. Not just because of the economic and political stakes, but because of the highly divergent personalities and styles of leadership of the two Presidents.
Xi is a cool-headed introvert, whose political superpower is his iron Machiavellian detachment. This type of leader does not allow himself the pleasures of living within commonplace morality, considering this a form of “feel good” self-indulgence a leadership failure. According to the code described by Machiavell, a Prince (and Xi is the quintessential Red Prince) puts the needs of his City States ahead of all other considerations. The Machiavellian’s task is to perpetually scan, detect, and then eliminate opponents and threats that stand in the way of a strategically advantageous future. Xi’s combination of detachment, attention to detail and abstinence regarding human needs makes him a formidable foe in conflict or negotiations.
Trump has a “hot” extraverted personality. He draws energy from those around him, is attuned to their moods and needs, and automatically seeks to connect with crowds. A true individualist – the quintessential American Maverick – Trump is a fearless instinctive leader with extraordinary charismatic skill. Trump is preternaturally able to grasp the mood of crowds and engage them. He noted in the press conference he gave immediately after a third thwarted assassination attempt that leaders with “the most impact” are commonly targeted by assassins. It is true that extremely talented charismatic leaders such as Trump, Lincoln, Kennedy, Shinzo Abe, Martin Luther King, and Ghandi are loathed as much as they are loved. These types of leaders engage emotions, good or ill, within the collective unconscious of their supporters and detractors.
When a gifted political charismatic such as President Trump is paired in negotiation with an equally gifted Machiavellian such as President Xi, history-making deals may happen. So too can epoch-defining disasters occur. The summit between Mao and Nixon comes to mind as a world-changing success story. Close observers of both past and present summits might quip that history has flipped on which country brought a charismatic (or narcissistic) leader and which a Machiavellian (or paranoid) to the table.
Hitler, Chamberlan, and Stalin come to mind in regard to historical catastrophes resulting from leaders with striking differences in personality. Hitler, though unhinged, poorly educated, and seething with genocidal hatred, possessed extraordinary charismatic talent. He was able to deceive classically educated, upper-crust British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, a scrupulous man who disdained popularity or glamour, into believing that the Munich agreement would bring “peace in our time.” Hitler managed the same trick with Stalin, who was Hitler’s equal in bloodlust, paranoia, and ruthlessness, but more cunning and detached rather than deranged. The two signed a non-aggression pact that Hitler broke.
Xi and Trump appear to share a consensus that the current post WW-II rule-based order is inimical to their goals. Each may believe that it is time to negotiate a new set of rules for a world order and believe this falls to them because of their positions as co-equals in world power; Trump has referred to a “G-2” with China. However, both also believe that a leader can only dictate international relations if their domestic power is secured and seen to be untouchable, because anything less than a full “hands off” respect from a political counterpart implies that any deals made are shaky. Hitler did not hesitate to break a deal he made with his ostensibly inferior counterpart.
Both Xi’s and Trump’s political ethics and values are founded on dealmaking. A leader destroys his enemies by making them friends – or at least, by making a frenemy who has an equal share of power that allows the negotiation of lasting deals. Both Xi and Trump believe they have unique mastery of logic as well as the unconscious dynamics of power. In their calculations, the weak and vulnerable in society are not necessarily forgotten but protected and looked after; however, power is not shared with the powerless.
As demonstrated in their respective “big, beautiful [military] parades” both men love to put on a grand performance. A showman at heart, Trump puts himself in the center of the action and loves the unmediated, moment-by-moment audience reactions. Xi is a master behind-the-scenes director, who is essentially an orchestrator and always a watcher, not an immersive participant. Xi composes spectacles of great precision and complexity.
Ultimately, both men are driven by urgency to protect and restore the historic “spirit” of their cultures, seeming to believe that they were chosen by fate for highest office. One’s call to action is: “The Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation” and the other’s slogan is “Make America Great Again.” Both believe in the exceptionalism and manifest destiny of their nations. Is it possible for both men to be right?
Xi and Trump may be an odd couple in world leadership, but we must remember they are part of a very exclusive club whose only members are the two most indisputably powerful men on earth. Within this exclusivity, they understand each other very well, share surprising similarities, and some dangerous differences.
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