Iran has deployed a Russian-made air defense system around its underground Fordow nuclear facility, state media reported this week.
Given the timing of the announcement, it’s a move that can be seen as a political effort by the regime’s leadership to try to maintain an “atmosphere of alarm” domestically to deflect attention from embarrassing international and internal developments, Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told The Cipher Brief.
The long-range, Russian-made S-300 surface-to-air missile system was set up around the once-secret Fordow mountain nuclear facility. Under the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) Iran nuclear deal signed last year, Iran agreed to cease enriching uranium at the site for at least 15 years and to turn it into a research center for nuclear science, physics, and technology.
“What’s very important here is the timing,” Vatanka said. “Nobody’s talking about attacking Fordow or Natanz or a nuclear-related facility, so why make a big deal out of it? Because this sort of fits nicely with the intents of the Revolutionary Guard. What they’re doing is flexing their political muscle for a domestic audience.”
Maintaining this “atmosphere of alarm” in the wake of the deal dismantling much of Fordow’s capabilities is politically advantageous for Tehran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), allowing leaders in the country to avoid talking about mainstream economic and social issues or internal corruption, Vatanka said.
“They don’t want to talk about it,” he said. “They want to talk about the nasty United States who will attack Tehran or Fordow — and to say, ‘We are the only ones who can protect you.’”
The JCPOA also laid out that almost two-thirds of Fordow’s centrifuges and infrastructure would be removed — the remaining centrifuges are not to be used to enrich uranium and will be under International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring.
Iran characterized this week’s air defense system deployment as purely defensive in nature. Brigadier General Farzad Esmaili, commander of the IRGC’s air defense base, said on state TV that “our main priority is to protect Iran's nuclear facilities under any circumstances.”
And Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a speech on Sunday that "continued opposition and hype on the S-300 or the Fordow site are examples of the viciousness of the enemy.”
"The S-300 system is a defense system, not an assault one, but the Americans did their best for Iran not to get hold of it,” he said, according to AFP.
The S-300 deal was originally signed by Russia and Iran in 2007 but had been delayed due to United Nations sanctions. It was renewed last year after the Iran nuclear accord was signed.
“We’ve got to make sure that the Iranian people don’t fall for this argument that somehow the United States doesn’t believe that Iran, a country of 80 million people, should not have any defensive system in place whatsoever. That is obviously not U.S. policy,” Vatanka said.
This deployment to Fordow is part of Tehran’s attempt to project confidence, Vatanka said, and to refocus domestic attention on external threats.
“They are turning the tables around and turning attention to the enemy they like to have, the United States, because it serves their purposes,” he added.
Khamenei “always wants to say Iran will never negotiate from a position of weakness,” Vatanka noted — Iran may have signed the nuclear agreement, but it must showcase it is not feebler because of it. The timing of the S-300 deployment in that respect is not coincidental, according to Vatanka.
The defense system’s deployment also comes right after the Russians embarrassed the Iranians by publicly announcing they were using an Iranian base to conduct airstrikes in Syria. The Iranian defense minister last week criticized Moscow for having a "kind of show-off and ungentlemanly" attitude by broadcasting the use of the air base, and Russia abruptly stopped using the site.
This move also follows another effort to boost Iran’s image of power — there has been increased provocative activity by Iran’s naval vessels in the last few months. Last week, for instance, there were three separate incidents of Iranian boats harassing U.S. ships and in one situation, a U.S. Navy ship fired three warning shots as an Iranian vessel approached two ships.
Army General Joseph Votel, head of U.S. Central Command, said on Tuesday that “in recent days, we have witnessed even more provocative activity by the IRGC and navy vessels. That type of behavior is very concerning and we hope to see Iran's naval forces act in a more professional manner.”
Meanwhile, State Department spokesman John Kirby on Monday said the U.S. was troubled by the reports of the missile system’s deployment at Fordow.
“That's of concern to us because we have long objected to the sale to Iran of these kinds of capabilities. So, as we get more information, obviously, we're going to stay in close consultation with partners going forward,” Kirby said.
Mackenzie Weinger is a national security reporter at The Cipher Brief.
