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December 11th, 2024 | 7:43 AM ET

In Taiwan, the Calendar – and Preparations – for a Chinese Invasion

A Taiwanese military outpost on Shihyu islet is seen past anti-landing spikes placed along the coast of Lieyu islet on Taiwan’s Kinmen islands, which lie just 3.2 kms (two miles) from the mainland China coast, on August 10, 2022. (Photo by Sam Yeh / AFP) (Photo by SAM YEH/AFP via Getty Images)
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Posted: March 26th, 2024

By The Cipher Brief

SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — While wars rage in Ukraine and Gaza, the past week has seen a spike in tensions over a global conflict that may be years away – or never come at all: A war over Taiwan.

Last Thursday Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said it had detected more than thirty Chinese military aircraft near Taiwan in a 24-hour window, the second-highest figure this year. Taiwan’s foreign minister said on Wednesday that China has built “enormous” military bases on three islands surrounding Taiwan’s main outpost in the South China Sea. And while forecasts vary widely as to whether and when China might move forcefully against Taiwan, U.S. Adm. John Aquilino, head of the Indo-Pacific Command, said the Chinese military would likely be ready for an assault on the island within three years.

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