SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE REPORTING — On July 28, Venezuela’s authoritarian President, Nicolás Maduro, will face his most formidable electoral challenge since assuming office following the death of his predecessor, Hugo Chavez, in 2013. Polls show his primary opponent, formerly little-known diplomat Edmundo González, leading by a wide margin.
One survey from Meganalisis has González at 32.4% of the vote, compared to only 11.2% for Maduro. Another report put González’s support at around 50%, and Maduro’s between 22% and 25%. Either way, it’s a substantial lead that reflects widespread dissatisfaction with Maduro’s leadership. The Venezuelan leader has presided over an economic collapse that ignited one of Latin America’s worst humanitarian crises.
For more than a decade, Maduro has beaten back opponents with a mix of corruption, control of the press, and electoral fraud. Maduro has allowed military generals and allies to enrich themselves through drug trafficking and illegal mining, and he regularly claims that U.S. sanctions are the primary cause of Venezuela’s economic problems.
In the campaign's last days, Maduro has called the opposition "fascist, racist and violent," and warned of unrest should he lose. Many observers inside Venezuela and beyond are wondering what tools Maduro will use to stop an opposition victory.
“What is at stake is the future of Venezuela,” Harold Trinkunas, Deputy Director at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), told The Cipher Brief. “Either it will remain an impoverished, repressive autocratic regime, or it will transition to a democracy with the opportunity for renewed economic growth and the expansion of human liberty.”
Why Venezuela matters
Venezuela holds strategic importance for several reasons. Its vast oil reserves are among the largest in the world and vital to Washington’s partners and allies. The country has been an important player in regional stability, and Russia and China have sought to make inroads in Venezuela as a way to gain influence in the Western Hemisphere. And as economic woes pile up in Venezuela - its GDP has shrunk by more than 70 % under Maduro - more than 7.7 million citizens have voted with their feet; the U.S. is currently contending with high levels of Venezuelan migration.
“Who is in charge (in Caracas) matters,” Trinkunas said. “A return of democracy in Venezuela would attract a great deal of international support and bolster the local economy. Outmigration would slow and even reverse as Venezuelans outside their country felt safe to return.”
Trinkunas and others believe a return of democracy would lead to the lifting of international sanctions, reassuring international oil companies, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, that it was safe to invest and expand operations in Venezuela, leading to increased production and exports. If, on the other hand, Maduro resorts to fraud or force to keep power, the nation will be punished.
“That will lead to continued nonrecognition of the regime in Venezuela, poor economic prospects, and continued outmigration,” Trinkunas warned. “In addition, given the likelihood of continued or increased sanctions, international investors will hold off on starting or expanding their operations in Venezuela, leading to continued weak performance in the Venezuelan oil sector.”
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Venezuela – and the “axis of authoritarians”
Despite his unpopularity, Maduro has managed to stay in power for more than a decade by preventing political challenges, and strengthening commercial ties with Iran, Russia, and China to help avoid the worst effects of U.S. sanctions.
Maximo Zaldivar, Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean at The International Foundation for Electoral Systems, told The Cipher Brief that the “undeniable influence” of these three countries under the Maduro regime is also of key concern to U.S. officials, and “something that needs to be properly countered.”
It’s unlikely to be “countered” without a change in power.
Maduro's regime has cultivated those close relationships with Iran, Russia, and China – three of the four nations in the ascending “axis of authoritarians” (the fourth is North Korea), a group that has collaborated in different geopolitical theaters to push back against the U.S. and its western allies. Maduro has leveraged these alliances to counter the effects of sanctions and gain economic, military, and political support. In return, the “axis” countries have gained strategic footholds in Latin America, access to Venezuela's vast natural resources, and opportunities to challenge U.S. influence in the region.
Evan Ellis, a research professor of Latin American studies at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, said the situation could become much gloomier for both the U.S. and the people of Venezuela if Maduro fails to accept a loss.
In that scenario, Ellis told The Cipher Brief, “It is likely that Venezuela will continue to descend into a Cuban-style dictatorship...leading to an extended sanctions regime, continued isolation of the economy and the loss of any reasonable prospects for a return to democracy for several years.”
How to quash the competition
The world is watching Maduro’s moves in these final days before the vote.
González, a retired diplomat, is supported by vibrant opposition leader María Corina Machado, who was selected by an overwhelming majority in last October’s opposition primary but disqualified from the race in January. Maduro’s government, backed by a loyal Supreme Court, made politically motivated claims that Machado had supported U.S. sanctions,participated in corruption, and depleted revenue for Venezuela’s foreign assets.
Washington accused Caracas of impeding the elections by blocking opposition candidates, harassing political opponents, and arresting civil society activists. When Maduro blocked Machado from running in the presidential election, the U.S. condemned the action and reimposed previously lifted sanctions.
Since her disqualification, Machado has rallied behind Gonzalez, her Democratic Unitary Platform replacement, and the duo has promoted the slogan “bury socialism.”
Experts remain skeptical that Maduro—who has insisted publicly that he will not lose—will respect the fundamentals of a free and fair election.
According to Zaldivar, Sunday’s election is the best chance the opposition has had for a long time, even in the face of Maduro’s antics, which include the “co-opting of the majority of institutions, including the National Electoral Council.”
Trinkunas noted that beyond the obvious lure of political power, Maduro and his inner circle are motivated by a desire to “preserve their access to revenues from the licit and illicit economies and from corruption.”
“They also have a very strong interest in avoiding being held accountable for economic crimes and human rights abuses,” he continued. “The Maduro regime will do everything it can to create unfair electoral conditions to minimize the opposition’s support on election day, and very likely also commit fraud to try to erase an opposition victory, even if this means risking popular unrest.”
The opposition has voiced concern about several scenarios that could hinder a fair vote: pre-election tactics including changing polling locations and restricting campaigning; vote-buying with government welfare benefits; and measures to block Venezuelans in exile from voting.
The regime in Caracas has already moved to weaken the diaspora vote, most of whom would likely vote against Maduro. While some 5.5 million Venezuelans who have left the beleaguered country remain eligible to vote - around a quarter of the electorate - only 69,000 have been able to register. Venezuelan officials abroad are making it difficult for the exiles to vote by refusing common visas as residency proof, according to watchdog groups.
Adding to the concerns, Maduro’s government has declined a European Union offer to monitor the election. Only one independent organization, the Atlanta-based non-profit Carter Center, has been granted permission to observe the voting process.
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After the vote, fears of unrest
If Maduro loses on July 28, experts doubt he will relinquish power peacefully, given his past practice, his interest in the trappings of power, and a standing charge against him in the U.S.
The U.S. placed a $15 million bounty on Maduro on March 26, 2020, in tandem with an indictment which charged Maduro and several of his associates with “narco-terrorism, corruption, drug trafficking, and other criminal charges.” The U.S. accused Maduro of using cocaine as a weapon to undermine the health and well-being of Americans, facilitating drug shipments, and partnering with the Colombian militant group FARC to flood the United States with cocaine.
“The chance of the election being allowed, the opposition victory being recognized, and a peaceful transition taking place are very slim,” Ellis noted. “It is enormously difficult for me to believe that Maduro and his cronies would take the risk of actually losing power, or handing over power if they lost, understanding the number of criminal charges that the U.S. Justice Department and others have accumulated against them if they ever lost their control of the Venezuelan state.”
Zaldivar stressed that Washington needs to keep the pressure on Maduro and his regime in the weeks ahead, “so he knows that the U.S. and others are vigilant of what is going on in Venezuela and that they expect a democratic outcome.”
“The Armed Forces in Venezuela are not only behind this regime; they are an active part of it; it would be very difficult to find voices among them who would rather defend the Constitution and uphold the decision taken by the citizens than oppose Maduro,” Zaldivar added.
“But with enough international pressure and mostly regional (pressure), something might change, but only if the results are undoubtedly overwhelming against Maduro and his regime. If we get to this scenario, then a real space for a negotiated exit for Maduro could open up, but it is a very remote probability.”
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