Cindy Otis, Former CIA Analyst and Briefer
In their most basic sense, conspiracy theories are defined as the belief that some powerful bad actor is responsible for particular events, whereas disinformation is false information intended to deceive. The two terms are very different, yet they often go hand-in-hand when groups or individuals promote conspiracy theories, knowing they are false.
In domestic politics, at least in the United States, conspiracy theories have traditionally played a fringe role in political discourse, something a tipsy family member might bring up at an awkward family celebration. However, in recent years, ideas once seen as being “out there” have increasingly becoming mainstream points of conversation in U.S. politics and some have even become powerful political narratives used by today’s public figures. One very notable example is the conspiracy of a “Deep State”—a belief that there is a secret faction inside the government that is organized and is trying to thwart President Trump’s agenda and destroy the country.
The Threat of Conspiracy Theories
Foreign and domestic actors are taking advantage of the ‘mainstreaming’ of conspiracy theories to influence foreign politics and economies. In fact, many of the successful disinformation campaigns we have seen in recent years—such as the Russian interference campaign in 2016—have relied upon conspiracy narratives. Conspiracy theories and theorists are an integral part of the disinformation process in two key ways.
First, threat actors create their own conspiracy theories to deploy disinformation. Conspiracies were a common claim among the at least 3 million tweets posted by fake accounts known to be part of Russia’s Internet Research Agency (IRA) or “troll factory” between June 2015 and December 2017. These accounts created conspiracies about U.S. politics, the economy, and race. One known Russian account claiming to be that of a blond American woman said the Pope had converted to Islam. Another claimed that Thanksgiving turkeys sold at Walmart ahead of the 2015 holiday, were tainted with salmonella. Neither theory was true. Russia’s foreign intelligence agency, the SVR, also reportedly circulated a fake document in July 2016 which ultimately led to conspiracy theories about the death of DNC staffer Seth Rich.
Second, conspiracy theories play a large role in the amplification of disinformation. Whether it’s conducted by a group, government, or individual, a successful disinformation campaign needs real unwitting humans to see the claim, believe it, and ultimately spread it. It extends the disinformation’s reach and helps legitimize it by making it appear as if it is a mainstream idea or even a fact. Bad actors will therefore often simply promote or amplify existing conspiracy theories, again, knowing they are false.
For example, IRA accounts quickly amplified false information when a post appeared in July 2016 on the imageboard 4chan from an individual claiming to be a high-level FBI analyst. The post claimed that damaging information existed that indicated that the Clintons were involved in a pedophile ring. As the QAnon conspiracy as it was called, developed and gained supporters, IRA accounts relentlessly promoted the theory by re-sharing posts, using QAnon hashtags, and pushing their own content in favor of the idea.
They also boosted the Pizzagate conspiracy theory —which was that leaked DNC emails proved that the Clintons and John Podesta were running a sex-trafficking ring in the basement of a pizza parlor in Washington, D.C. Of course, there was no evidence and the theory was eventually proven to be both ridiculous and false.
By jumping onto these existing conspiracy theories, the IRA aided the overall disinformation operation because it both spread false information against the target—the U.S. and then presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, specifically—and it allowed them to gain followers from within the group of QAnon and other conspiracy theory believers, increasing the visibility of their content and their potential impact.
Cindy Otis, Former CIA Analyst and Briefer
The growth and popularity of social media has further enabled bad actors looking to quickly promote conspiracy theories as part of their disinformation operations. As people, we constantly try to make sense of the world around us by identifying patterns and trends to explain what we are seeing. We fall for conspiracy theories largely because of our own that lead us to identify patterns based on “evidence” that really is not there. The very nature of social media amplified that tendency—for example, we are rewarded for tweeting quickly and posting witty “hot takes,” rather than nuanced, well-reasoned and well-sourced analysis.
What Can we do to Stop the Spread of Conspiracy Theories
We must understand and identify that the use of conspiracy theories to motivate or manipulate a population is an information threat. We must also recognize that each of us remain the best defense against conspiracy theories taking root online and in our communities. As society increasingly relies on social media for its news and means of communication, we should commit to ensuring that the content we share is based in fact and supported by evidence, calling out baseless conspiracy theories when we see them, and helping to educate those around us.
For Reference:
Cipher Brief Disinformation Glossary –
Disinformation – Intentionally using false or misleading information to deceive or manipulate. Disinformation can come from an individual, group, intelligence service, company, or government.
Conspiracy Theories - The belief that some powerful bad actor is responsible for particular events, though the theory is not evidence-based and is not true.
Misinformation – Spreading false information without the intention to deceive.
Coordinated Inauthentic Behavior – spreading false information meant to deceive as part of a coordinated effort, whether it be with a group of individuals, a government, or a company. Inauthentic behavior can include things like running a network of fake accounts or buying “likes” to boost a social media post.
Troll – A real human user that posts inflammatory, abusive, or divisive content meant to trigger emotional responses. A company, government, or group may run a “troll farm” in which real humans run social media accounts intended to promote certain content, such as a particular political ideology.
Bot – An account that has been automated to perform a specific function, such as posting certain content or liking posts. Chatbots are able to interact with another account in a way that mimics real human interaction. Bots are becoming more sophisticated and can use real people making them harder to detect.
Read also Disinformation 101 by Cindy Otis and Hostile Social Manipulation
And read more expert-driven national security news, information and analysis in The Cipher Brief
