Deterring ISIS’ Ambitions

By Natasha Lander

Natasha Lander is a senior project associate at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation.  From 2013 to 2015, she served as an advisor to the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction within the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy. 

While debate continues over whether the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) poses an immediate threat to the United States and Europe, there is little doubt ISIL has developed a chemical weapons capability. In February, U.S. officials acknowledged that ISIL was likely responsible for mustard gas attacks in Iraq and Syria in 2015. This followed multiple accusations of ISIL chlorine gas attacks against Iraqi and Kurdish troops. Additionally, the French government openly questioned whether ISIL could launch a successful attack on a Western city using chemical weapons or other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) after last November’s terrorist attacks in Paris.

Given ISIL’s complete disregard for international norms, and, in fact, its desire to publicly contest those norms, U.S. and European leaders cannot discount the possibility that the organization may attempt a chemical attack within their borders. Western leaders should look to the robust alliances, treaty regimes, and international organizations to which most of them already ascribe as one way to address ISIL’s WMD-related ambitions and protect against the potential use of these weapons.

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