OPINION — As the tragic Ukraine war grinds into its third year – with no end in sight, and with Russia advancing militarily in the Donbas region – China’s President Xi Jinping and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin met in a state visit in Beijing this week, their 43rd meeting since Xi came to power in 2013. Their recent statements highlight their views of today’s complex, multipolar world, and what lessons they might have learned from Russia’s ill-fated February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
By now, western observers of Putin and Xi should be more than familiar with their rational, ruthless, and resilient leadership styles, as well as their confidence, soaring aspirations and ambitions, in which – in Xi’s words – they are striving to “push forward changes that have not happened for 100 years.”
At a time when much western media remains obsessed with predictions of Russia’s military threats vis-à-vis NATO and Europe, and with China’s threats in the South China Sea and towards Taiwan, Xi and Putin have surprised us once again, by returning to and emphasizing diplomacy and statecraft. Comprehending their leadership psychology is more about understanding GO, chess, and Sun Tzu than Freud. At a time when many western media, academic, and think tank observers have emphasized Xi’s and Putin’s war-like nature and acts, these two leaders have shown that the truest lesson of the Ukraine war is that political, diplomatic, and economic preparation is paramount. In today’s multi-polar world, skillful diplomacy – at the highest level, with leaders involved – is thereby more salient than ever.
Xi’s Europe tour
Xi recently embarked upon a whirlwind of highly successful state visits to France, Serbia, and Hungary. In Serbia, Presidents Xi and Aleksandar Vučić announced that they would “build a new era of a shared future between China and Serbia.” Numerous economic and strategic agreements were signed, and Serbia has expressed an interest in joining the BRICS alliance (Brazil/Russia/India/China/South Africa) later this year — a huge ‘win’ for Xi and Putin, as Russia holds the BRICS Chairmanship in 2024. In Hungary, Xi and Prime Minister Viktor Orban signed political and economic agreements, thereby weakening the EU and its de-risking policy.
In France, Xi sought closer economic and political relations, and he sees France’s President Macron as a paramount leader in a Europe less beholden to its traditional trans-Atlantic alliances, and more accepting of “strategic autonomy” and closer relations with China. The symbolism of China’s 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations with France, its 75th anniversary of relations with Hungary, and 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of China’s Belgrade embassy is not lost upon Xi. At a time when many western observers have focused upon Xi’s political weaknesses (especially following the sacking of his defense and foreign ministers in 2023), Xi’s Europe trip and summitry reveal a highly confident, dynamic, and strong leader, who sees himself and China as paramount in today’s world. If Xi – who has read and understood Sun Tzu very well – has learned any lesson from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 with respect to Taiwan, it is that the battleground must be prepared diplomatically and economically, or military victory becomes impossible.
Putin’s strategy
Putin has, likewise, following his election to an unprecedented third consecutive term as Russia’s President, borrowed a page from Xi’s playbook and resumed vigorous diplomacy with his recent state visit to China. Putin’s China trip follows his recent reshuffle of several key cabinet leaders and aides, as well as Russia’s increased military aggression in Ukraine, with territorial gains in Kharkiv and brutal missile attacks on key civilian populations. But Putin’s shift towards diplomacy is hardly new. It’s a playbook that he has deftly and expertly relied upon for decades, often after heightened military activity (Chechnya 2000, Georgia 2008) and intelligence provocations (in 2018, following the attempted assassination of former GRU officer Sergei Skripal in the UK using a banned chemical weapon). His China trip and the recent personnel changes in the Kremlin reflect a confident, statesmanlike Putin, not necessarily the genocidal war criminal, psychopath, or ‘thug’ as often portrayed in the western media.
Putin’s shift of Sergei Shoigu (who accompanied Putin on his visit to China) from the Defense Ministry to the National Security Council, his demotion of top national security official Nikolai Patrushev to an aide’s position (where he lacks a power base), and promotion of Andrei Belousov to the Defense Ministry reflects not necessarily a shift towards a war economy (as has been written in the western media), but rather Putin’s anticipation of, and shift towards a post-war economy. Putin, similar to Xi, sees a Russia further integrated into a multipolar world, and eventually (but only after peace in Ukraine) re-integrated into political and economic ties with Europe. One can expect a full-court press by Putin in this regard, with a hybrid, asymmetric and whole-of-government approach, utilizing Russia’s fullest diplomatic, political, military, economic, and information capabilities to achieve his strategic goals.
In an interview with Xinhua, Putin spoke not only of the closeness of Russian-Chinese relations, but also of his desire to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. He commended China’s approaches to ending the war and highlighted its 12-point peace plan put forth in 2023, and again emphasized that Russia is ready to return to the negotiating table. Putin’s comments dovetail with China’s vision of itself (and Xi) as an honest mediator and broker in ending the war.
Looking at America
Xi and Putin – both are in their early 70s – have personally experienced life’s many hardships and know what chaos and the end of empire can look like. And they likely look at a divided, weakened America, polarized by its election year politics, with a sitting President and his declining poll numbers, paralleling – according to many – his old age, and his leading opponent, exhausted after spending weeks in a courtroom in his unprecedented criminal trial. In his 2000 autobiography First Person, Putin wrote of his experiences while serving as a KGB officer in Dresden in 1989, during the collapse of East Germany. He famously said that, when querying Moscow Center for instructions, “Moscow was silent.” This to Putin symbolized the shameful weakness of the Russian state, a situation which he has dedicated himself to correct – ruthlessly so – during his tenure as Russia’s President.
Sadly, both Putin and Xi would today be correct in seeing an America that is often “silent.’” When Ukraine requires life-saving weapons to defend against genocidal Russian military aggression, and America takes many months to finally – perhaps too little, too late – pass a $61 billion supplemental aid bill, that’s an America that is silent. When tens of thousands of brave Georgian citizens, seeking integration with Europe, protest a pro-Russian “foreign agents” bill, and President Biden says nothing, that too is an America that is silent.
A former American intelligence officer once told me, “our most powerful weapons are money and silence.” During the Cold War, he may have been partly right. But today, in a new Cold War, facing formidable adversaries such as Putin’s Russia, Xi’s China, Raisi’s Iran, and Kim Jong-un’s North Korea, silence is weakness. Vigorous, bipartisan, principled, and sustained American leadership – not silence – is needed now, more than ever, to counter the dangerous ambitions of Putin, Xi, Raisi, and Kim. America can and must determine what today’s multipolar world will become. As Sun Tzu wrote, “the art of war is of vital importance to the State. It is a matter of life and death, a road either to safety or to ruin.”
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