As the impeachment investigation continues, The Cipher Brief spoke with former CIA Director and retired Four-Star General David Petraeus about why Ukraine is such an important strategic partner for the U.S.
The Cipher Brief: You and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst called in recent months for U.S. support of Ukraine and its new president. Help us understand - outside of the current accusations around the president’s phone call – why Ukraine is a strategic concern for the United States?
Petraeus: The new Ukrainian president and the new Ukrainian parliament offer considerable hope – indeed, the best hope since the Parliament removed President Yanukovych in early 2014 – that Ukraine can carry out the reforms that are so important to combating corruption, pursuing what Ukrainians term “de-oligarchization,” enabling the country’s economic growth, establishing effective rule of law, and attracting outside investment. The U.S. – as a country that has long supported democracy, the rule of law, and market economics and has also long opposed the kind of aggression carried out by Russia in Ukraine – has understandably supported Ukraine since its independence in 1990 following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the same way that the U.S. and its western allies and partners have supported other former Warsaw Pact countries and Soviet Republics following the end of the Cold War.
To date, however, there have never been such bright prospects for the necessary reforms in Ukraine. We and our western partners clearly should want to encourage and assist the reform process, especially given the destructive action pursued by Russia in occupying Crimea, supporting separatist activity in the Donbas, and carrying out other hostile initiatives to prevent Ukraine from becoming a vibrant, prosperous democratic country (which undoubtedly ranks as one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s worst nightmares).
The Cipher Brief: You traveled to Ukraine recently. Why did you go and what were your observations from that trip?
Petraeus: I returned to Ukraine several months ago with Ambassador Herbst to participate in events and meetings organized by the Atlantic Council (where Ambassador Herbst heads the Ukraine program and where I am a member of the board) and to get a sense of the situation in the capital, following the election of President Zelensky, as well as an appreciation for the situation on the front lines in the Donbas. The Ambassador and I returned to the U.S. with a view that the situation in Ukraine is hopeful but uncertain. The outcome of the presidential election had clearly reflected the widespread desire for change. And the results of the parliamentary election, completed since our visit, strongly echoed that desire for reform.
As the Ambassador and I described in an OpEd piece after our visit, Ukraine is engaged in two significant battles. The first is to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity from Russia. The second is to transform the country into a modern, rule of law-based democracy and market economy. Ukraine can only succeed if it continues both to defend itself and to begin a determined push for reform. It was – and still is – our sense that Ukraine is moving on a positive trajectory on both fronts and that Ukraine clearly merits the continued support of the U.S. and other western nations.
The Cipher Brief: Has Ukraine’s new president, in your opinion, made any notable progress toward reforms in Ukraine in the short time since he took office?
Petraeus: Yes, I believe that is the case, though it is still early days. President Zelensky has made progress, principally in selecting an impressive team of cabinet officials and leaders of various state organizations who clearly share his desire to carry out the reforms that the president highlighted during his campaign for presidency and then restated as his party sought success in the parliamentary elections, as well. His party’s strength in the parliament, especially if augmented by other reform-minded parties, is unprecedented in Ukraine’s post-Soviet history and should enable him to move aggressively to achieve the reforms that are needed and sought by the Ukrainian electorate.
Beyond the president’s selection of the members of his team and success in the parliamentary election, the stated intentions of the president and his team have also been quite encouraging, including their emphasis on: establishing the rule of law (including replacement of certain judicial and police personnel), combating corruption, establishing digital processes for interaction with government to promote transparency and reduce bureaucracy, continuing cooperation with the IMF, opening the sale of agricultural land, beginning privatization of state-owned enterprises, and pledging resistance to subsidies on natural gas that distort market forces, among other important initiatives.
The Cipher Brief: How should the U.S. be supporting Ukraine in particular, regarding the “frozen conflict” its facing outside Donetsk?
Petraeus: As Ambassador Herbst and I noted in our OpEd piece after returning from Ukraine, western support remains essential in helping Ukraine defend itself and in persuading Moscow to withdraw its 2,000-plus officers and hundreds of tanks and other heavy weapons from the Donbas. Western support has two dimensions: first, continued sanctions on Russia and second, various forms of security and economic assistance, including the funding for various defensive weapon systems and military capabilities for the Ukrainian military, as well as advice to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and Ukroboronprom (the overall headquarters of Ukraine’s substantial state-owned defense industries) and other ministries to assist with much needed reforms in those institutions.
As Ambassador Herbst and I observed, Moscow has, of course, sought to create continued security and economic challenges for Ukraine. For example, for over a year, Russia has carried out shipping inspections in the Sea of Azov to undermine maritime commerce to the Ukrainian-controlled parts of the Donbas. As a result, trade in the Ukrainian Azov sea ports has dropped by at least 30 percent. The West has still not reacted sufficiently to these inspections, and the US-imposed sanctions in response to Moscow’s illegal attack on Ukrainian naval vessels last November were both late and weak. Sanctions on a major Russian bank, such as Gazprom Bank or Vnesheconombank, would send the right signal to Moscow and also reinforce the concerns conveyed by earlier sanctions for Russia’s occupation of Crimea and continued Russian materiel, logistics, and advisory support of the separatists.
The second dimension of Western support for Ukraine in the Donbas is the provision of weapons and other military capabilities. President Donald Trump was right to supply Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank missiles in 2017, but Ukraine should be allowed to acquire more and position them for use, if needed. The approval this past week of an additional sale of Javelins was another step in the right direction, and Congress should expedite its approval, as well. Ukraine also needs more counter-battery radar systems to reduce their casualties from Russian artillery by accurate counter-fire. And it needs shore radar, Mark V speed boats, and anti-ship Harpoon missiles to defend against Moscow’s aggressive posture in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. Other needs described to Ambassador Herbst and me when we were in Ukraine include better (and secure) communications equipment, night vision goggles, and numerous basic soldier kit items.
The Cipher Brief: President Trump decided to withhold aid to Ukraine ahead of his phone call with the country’s president without an explanation as to why. How badly does Ukraine need that aid and what is it being used for?
Petraeus: U.S. and western aid for Ukraine, whether economic or security in nature, is very important to enabling Ukraine to sustain itself at a time of political transition and continued security and economic challenges. The hold on the security assistance – now released – was very concerning and conveyed a very unhelpful message, as was noted by Ambassador Bill Taylor, America’s senior diplomate in Kiev, to the then U.S. envoy for Ukraine, Ambassador Kurt Volker. Assuming the new Ukrainian government pursues the reforms needed to succeed in the most important battle in Ukraine – the battle of Kiev (i.e. the fight to achieve good governance), American and western support for Ukraine should be steadfast, firm, and unwavering.
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