OPINION — The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, Lai Ching-te, won the Taiwan election for president with over 40% of the vote. It was a vote for democracy and a rebuke of China and its attempt to convince – by intimidation – the 23 million citizens of Taiwan, that it was in their interest to deny the presidency to the DPP candidate. China failed and it should be clear to Beijing why they failed.
Chinese warships circling Taiwan and jets entering Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone and routinely crossing the Median Line in the Taiwan Strait, were blatant attempts to intimidate Taiwan and convince voters that a vote for the DPP candidate was a vote for eventual war. That failed because the people voted for their democratic freedoms and refused to be bullied by an aggressive and threatening China.
China’s blatant and over-the-top disinformation efforts also failed. It was a multifaceted attempt to use social media, some with fake accounts, to propagate a false narrative or flat out lies to influence the election. The Taiwan FactCheck Foundation, a nonprofit/non-government organization – and others, worked effectively to counter much of this disinformation from China.
But it should have been obvious to Beijing that its actions in Hong Kong also influenced the electorate in Taiwan.
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In 1984, China’s Deng Xiaoping and Britain’s Margaret Thatcher signed the Sino-British joint Declaration that provided autonomy for Hong Kong for 50 years. And on July 1, 2017, when Hong Kong reverted from the United Kingdom back to China, the Basic Law for Hong Kong went into effect, ensuring that Hong Kong’s capitalist system and way of life would be untouched until 2047, thus enshrining the “one country two systems” principle of governance.
In June 2020, China’s National People’s Congress, apparently reacting to 2019 pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong, passed a National Security Law for Hong Kong, giving China extensive power to deal with crimes of secession, subversion, terrorism, and collusion with foreign forces, all punishable with maximum sentences of life in prison.
The interpretation of the law resides in Beijing, hollowing out judicial autonomy. The law’s threat to civil freedoms resulted in routine peaceful demonstrations, with many of the protesters being detained or arrested. Britain’s former Prime Minister, Liz Truss, said: “Since the National Security Law was imposed, authorities have cracked down on free speech, the free press and free association. We have seen a systematic erosion of liberty and democracy in Hong Kong.”
The “one country two systems” principle of governance for Hong Kong ended abruptly with the enactment of the National Security Law. This, no doubt, was obvious to the people of Taiwan when they went to 18,000 polling stations in to cast their ballot for their next president.
Indeed, the ongoing trial in Hong Kong of Jimmy Lai, founder of the now-shuttered pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily, must have been a powerful reminder to the citizens of Taiwan of the fragility of democracy. Mr. Lai, who participated in the 2019 pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong, was accused of endangering China’s national security. He pleaded not guilty to charges of colluding with foreign forces and conspiracy to publish seditious material. If found guilty, Mr. Lai could be imprisoned for life. The trial continues, with countries like the U.S. and U.K saying the trial is a sham and calling for his release.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, in his New Year’s address a few weeks ago, said that unification with Taiwan was “inevitable.”
And a spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs office, in a January 13 Xinhua news story commenting on the results of the Taiwan election, said: “Taiwan is China’s Taiwan … and the elections will not impede the inevitable trend of China’s reunification. Our stance on resolving the Taiwan question and realizing national reunification remains consistent, and our determination is as firm as rock.”
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The inauguration of Mr. Lai will be in May. Mr. Lai praised his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, and “… committed to cross-Strait relations returning to a healthy and sustainable way of exchanges”, while noting Taiwan’s critical semiconductor industry and promising to “continue to assist its development, which would benefit the global economy.”
The U.S. congratulated Mr. Lai on his win and said it is committed to providing Taiwan with $345 million of military aid and a one-China policy that supports the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.
China’s continued reaction to the election will be monitored closely by the global community. And given Beijing’s past criticism of Mr. Lai as a separatist, most doubt that China will relax its air and sea operations around Taiwan and respond favorably to any overture from Taiwan regarding improving cross-Strait relations.
Historically, China has been patient, confident that their goals and objectives eventually will materialize. However, given Xi Jinping’s assertiveness and focus on Taiwan and his comments on the inevitable reunification with China, patience may cease to be Xi Jinping’s approach to resolving the Taiwan issue.
In addition to hoping for an improved cross-Strait dialogue, enhanced deterrence between the U.S. its allies and Taiwan, will be necessary to help convince China that a peaceful resolution of issues with Taiwan is the prudent approach.
This article by Cipher Brief Expert Ambassador Joe Detrani was first published by The Washington Times
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