Ukraine is Putin’s Calculated War

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Russian President Vladimir Putin told a group of reporters recently that while Russia “is ready for any scenario”, the country does not want a direct clash with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).  The Russian leader was referring to the recent collision of Russian and U.S. aircraft in Syria, and the threat of a direct military confrontation between the U.S. and Russia. While it is doubtful that Putin always speaks for the true interests of the Russian people, in my experience and in this case, Putin’s comments reflect the feelings of the majority of Russia’s citizens.

From the first time I lived in Moscow as a student in the 1980’s, to the multiple tours I served in Russia in the 1990’s and 2000’s, one common theme I repeatedly heard from Soviet, then Russian interlocutors, was that they did not want a war with the U.S. 

Upon learning that I was an American, Russians were always quick to remind me that between the First World War, Russian Civil War, the Second World War, or “Great Patriotic War”, as it is known in Russia, the Soviets and Russians suffered millions of casualties. If you add to these events, the loss of life caused by Stalin’s purges; famine and starvation; two wars in Chechnya and other forms of political repression that the Russians have been subjected to since 1917, it’s hard to imagine how Russia has survived the last 100 plus years.

Russians I spoke with frequently wanted to underline their fear of ever having to suffer through another World War and stressed how much they wanted to avoid a nuclear war.  Further, they clearly understood that the U.S. had the technology and capability to inflict much more damage on Russia than Napoleon’s France, Hitler’s Germany or of the self-inflicted suffering the Russian Tsars or Party bosses subjected them to in the past.  Thus, Putin’s message about wanting to avoid a direct conflict is a widely held sentiment among the Russian people.

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Unfortunately, as events in Ukraine are demonstrating, while Russians are against the idea of a global conflict between their country and a superpower like the U.S., too many Russians are willing to accept the loss of lives in local conflicts with their neighbors that result from the Kremlin’s aggressive behavior. 

Many Russians do believe that they are in a constant state of fear from perceived threats and encroachment from foreign powers, but this fear should not be allowed to justify Moscow’s willingness to use military force against its neighbors.  Since the creation of the Russian Federation in 1991, that country has used military force in Moldova, Georgia, Chechnya and Ukraine, against peoples that did not use force against Russia.  Moscow was willing to use force in these cases because the Kremlin did not believe that the U.S. or NATO would respond forcibly to Moscow’s aggressions.  When Russian military pilots behave in an aggressive manner towards U.S. aircraft in the airspace over Syria, the Baltic Sea or in the Black Sea, they make it clear that they do not think that the U.S. has the backbone to call their bluff. 

While there was great hope in the West after February 2022, that the Russian people would stand up and openly oppose Putin’s aggression against Ukraine, no significant opposition materialized.  U.S. led sanctions and military assistance to Ukraine has failed to convince Russians that they need to raise their voices against Putin and his war.  Russians, who are used to suffering and living with hardship have, to date, weathered the impact of sanctions and the growing diplomatic isolation of their country.  Unfortunately, they will likely continue to accept Putin’s aggressive behavior against Ukraine unless they see a clear sign that Putin is truly putting them at risk in a way that goes beyond sanctions or the provision of limited military assistance to Ukraine.  They may never demand an end to the war unless they start to understand that Putin has brought them face to face with a serious threat from NATO and confrontation with the U.S.

Despite all of the Kremlin’s anti-American propaganda and efforts to paint the U.S. as a weak country whose armed forces are spoiled and incapable of going toe to toe with the Russians, there is likely no military commander or analyst in Russia today who does not understand that in an armed conflict with the U.S., U.S. Forces would inflict significant damage upon the Russians.  If the the U.S. Military’s quick destruction of approximately 300 Wagner mercenaries and their Syrian allies in Syria in 2017 did not make this clear to Russian commanders, then the effectiveness of U.S. made weapons systems and training provided to the Ukrainian Armed Forces should make it obvious that the Russian Armed Forces are no match for their U.S. counterparts.

The Russians are well aware of the superiority of U.S. technology, training and weapons systems.  They understand that Washington has the means to defeat Russia in an armed conflict, but, unfortunately, continue to believe that Washington and its allies in Europe do not have the actual will to truly stand up to the Kremlin’s bullying behavior.

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Prior to the expansion of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, U.S. political leaders were just beginning to realize that Putin and his team were waging a war against U.S. influence and values worldwide.  Since coming to power, Putin set his country’s national security establishment on a collision course with Washington, conducting a relentless campaign to undermine U.S. influence in the Middle East, Central Asia, the Far East, Africa, Europe and South America.  This campaign intensified in the mid-2000’s as the U.S. was pre-occupied with the Global War on Terror and reached new heights in 2016, when Moscow attempted to interfere in U.S. elections and Russian active measures conducting inside of the U.S. finally caught the attention Washington.  These same American leaders, and their constituents, need to understand that if Putin is successful in his war against the Ukrainians, it will only encourage him to further expand his unconventional war against the U.S. and, a failure by the U.S. will make it much more likely that other countries around the world faced with threats from Moscow, will have little confidence that the U.S. will help them and will be predisposed to accepting Moscow’s demands to cut ties with the U.S. or will be forced to look for alternative sources of protection, most likely the People’s Republic of China (PRC).  While the prospects of continued aid and assistance to Ukraine may appear excessive to many Americans today and the idea of expanding military assistance to the Ukrainians is risky, the long term threat posed by a Putin victory in Ukraine will be much more painful and dangerous for the U.S. and its allies in the long run.

If Americans want to send the Kremlin a truly effective message about its lack of tolerance for Russia’s bullying and dangerous behavior, that message cannot be sent by more sanctions or diplomatic demarches.  It is unlikely that we will isolate Moscow any further.   The Russian people need to understand that their leaders are putting them in the direct path of a serious confrontation with the world’s most powerful country and force the Russian population to decide whether they should continue to tolerate the Kremlin’s willingness to risk their wellbeing or start to demand that their leaders stop acting in such an aggressive and dangerous behavior and take steps to truly reduce the level of tension between their country and the West.  When the average Russian is convinced that Putin’s aggression is bringing them to the brink of war with the U.S., then they will start to demand a real change in the Kremlin’s behavior. When they understand that the U.S. has the will to call Moscow’s bluff, they will be compelled to demand the type of behavior shift from Putin or his successors that the West needs to see.  Until then we will likely continue to watch at Moscow threaten its neighbors and takes actions to undermine the U.S. across the globe. 

Like the Russians, I do not know of any Americans that really want a war with Russia.  Contrary to the Kremlin’s propaganda, Americans are not heartless or shallow people driven only by greed and the desire to destroy Russia.  But Americans need to recognize that Putin declared war on our country long before his invasion of Ukraine, and that this aggression against our country will not end unless we demonstrate that, while we do not want a confrontation, we have the will to defend ourselves and our allies and if we are forced to take real action, it will cost the Russians dearly.  America today needs bold and strong action and Washington needs to demonstrate the type of courage and spirit that our country has demonstrated in the past when faced with threats.  Vladimir Putin needs to understand that if he does not want a fight with the U.S., he needs to end his aggression against our country and our allies.

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