The Year of the (Digital) Dragon

OPINION — In an era where digital power increasingly enables global dominance, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is executing a comprehensive national digital strategy designed to secure a decisive advantage over the United States and its allies. This strategy, far from a disjointed series of initiatives, represents a coherent and ambitious effort to reshape the global order to favor authoritarian governance over democratic ideals.

As a former national security executive who led digital transformation at the CIA, I have watched with concern as the PRC, under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), has aggressively pursued advancements in cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and quantum computing. These technologies serve multiple purposes: accelerating the growth of the Chinese economy, enhancing China’s military capabilities, and bolstering its domestic surveillance apparatus, all while enabling Beijing to project and expand its influence globally.

China’s digital strategy, propelled by the full weight of the government in Beijing, has already begun to reshape digital infrastructure and surveillance technology around the globe. China’s projects have made inroads into many developing countries, particularly in Africa and the Indo-Pacific region, by offering cheaper alternatives to western technologies. However, these new capabilities also introduce new vulnerabilities, whether through the proverbial debt trap or the compromise of digital infrastructure built with the help of Chinese companies, who are compelled by law to share private customer data with the government in Beijing upon request.

This digital ambition is not merely a quest for technological supremacy but a fundamental building block of the CCP’s vision for the future—a future where the global governance system advances the CCP’s authoritarian model with Beijing at its apex. This vision, underpinned by a rejection of democratic values including constitutional democracy, civil society, and journalistic independence, starkly contrasts with the principles cherished by freedom-loving Western democracies.

---

Looking for a way to get ahead of the week in cyber and tech?  Sign up for the Cyber Initiatives Group Sunday newsletter to quickly get up to speed on the biggest cyber and tech headlines and be ready for the week ahead. Sign up today.

---

The centerpiece of China’s digital ambition is the “Building Digital China” initiative, which aims to transform China into the world’s leading digital power. This initiative, propelled by President Xi Jinping, who is credited with first envisioning a “Digital China” as early as 2000 while still governor of Fujian province, seeks to leverage the current age of rapid technological advancement to secure China’s place as a global leader. As of 2020, the ambitious “New Type Infrastructure” (NTI) campaign planned to invest $2.7 trillion over five years in developing advanced digital infrastructure. Though progress toward NTI’s objectives has been slower than planned due to issues around overcapacity, quality control, and economic returns, the plan’s intentions illustrate China’s grand digital ambitions.

This domestic ambition naturally extends beyond China’s borders, with Beijing aiming to set international technology standards, reshape network architectures, and export its governance models. Its efforts to create a parallel global internet architecture, supported by the Digital Silk Road program of undersea cables, data centers, and satellite networks, as well as new national internet gateways that will restrict access to global internet content, will strengthen China’s digital sovereignty—a reasonable goal for any country—but will also extend Beijing’s influence globally through the promotion of its version of digital governance, which many see as digital authoritarianism. It will likewise open potential access by Beijing to massive amounts of data – the new “oil” of this digital age – traversing this Digital Silk Road infrastructure.

Beyond the physical infrastructure of this new competing digital ecosystem, the integration of data into societal control mechanisms and the push to influence global technology standards are of particular concern, as they represent a direct challenge to political and individual freedoms. One has only to imagine if the Internet itself had been created by an authoritarian government, and not the United States, to understand the potential global impact on one of history’s most successful catalysts for intellectual exploration and economic development.

---

It’s not just for the President anymore. Cipher Brief Subscriber+Members have access to their own Open Source Daily Brief, keeping you up to date on global events impacting national security.  It pays to be a Subscriber+Member.

---

The implications of China’s digital strategy are profound. It not only threatens to cement the PRC’s position as a dominant global power but also poses a fundamental challenge to the democratic world. The CCP’s coordinated approach to technology, framed by Marxist theory and aimed at controlling data as a key production factor in the digital age, underscores the need for a robust and unified digital strategy among democratic allies.

We must recognize that the CCP’s actions in the digital domain—whether through cyber intrusions, intellectual property theft, or the strategic deployment of next-generation wireless technology—are not isolated initiatives. They are manifestations of a grand strategy aimed at achieving economic and security dominance, and the West would do well to begin thinking about the issue in more strategic, and less transactional, terms.

The United States and its allies must reassess their approach to China’s digital ambitions. This requires not just defensive measures to protect our digital infrastructure and intellectual property but also proactive strategies to maintain a competitive edge in technological innovation. It involves limiting the CCP’s access to key technologies, capital, and data, while advancing our own economic strength and bolstering military deterrence.

Moreover, it is imperative that we work closely with our allies and partners to develop a coordinated and strategic alternative to the vision the PRC is quite effectively promoting around the world and its efforts to bend global technology standards in Beijing’s favor. A compelling alternative would be rooted in the free exchange of ideas, civil liberties, and data integrity. It would safeguard the economic interests of the United States and its partners, protect our democratic values, and guarantee a free and open international order.

This hard work should begin by prioritizing the advocacy of US and western participants in international standards development while broadly strengthening strategic alliances in the Indo-Pacific region, a goal long discussed but where little progress has been made over the past decade (outside the framework of existing alliances and the much-welcomed formation of the so-called Quad, representing the US, Australia, Japan, and India). The US likewise should explore deeper engagements with non-Western organizations to spread its vision for a global digital ecosystem that promotes freedom and liberty and protects the digital sovereignty of every nation.

The digital age offers unprecedented opportunities for growth, innovation, and human development. We see its benefits each day in nearly every aspect of our lives. However, it also presents new challenges and threats, especially from authoritarian regimes like the PRC, which seek to exploit these advancements to monitor and control their own societies and further their own geopolitical agendas outside their borders.

In the Year of the (Digital) Dragon, the United States and its allies must rally together, think strategically, and act decisively to protect our collective digital future, repel adversarial attacks on our digital ecosystems, and strengthen democratic values in the face of growing authoritarian trends.

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals. 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field?  Send it to [email protected] for publication consideration.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief