OPINION — The Budapest Memorandum of December 1994 provided security assurances to Ukraine in exchange for that country giving up its nuclear weapons. The Memorandum prohibited Russia, the U.S. and the UK from threatening or using military or economic coercion against Ukraine, and mandated a respect for Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty.
In February 2022, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That war of aggression continues, with estimates of 700,000 Ukrainians killed or wounded, and more than 800,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded. The socio-economic carnage to Ukraine is tragic, with over 8 million Ukrainians seeking refuge in neighboring countries.
North Korea reportedly sent more than 11,000 special forces troops to aid Russia in its war of aggression in Ukraine. This is in addition to the artillery shells and ballistic missiles North Korea is providing to Russia. In exchange, North Korea is reportedly receiving $2000 for each of its soldiers in Russia, while gaining valuable warfighting expertise. This is in addition to the satellite, ballistic missile and nuclear assistance the North Koreans are likely getting from Russia.
North Korea’s embrace of Russia and its war of aggression in Ukraine are both stark messages aimed primarily at the United States. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s June 2024 visit to Pyongyang for meetings with Kim Jong Un and the signing of a new Treaty of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, committing each to come to the aid of the other if either is invaded, was North Korea’s pivot to the Russian Federation. After thirty years of seeking a normal relationship with the U.S., Mr. Kim gave up on the U.S. and aligned North Korea to Russia, as part of the so-called Axis of Authoritarian states – Russia, China, Iran and China.
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Last week North Korea successfully launched an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) with a hypersonic warhead. Not surprisingly, the launch was conducted during Secretary State Antony Blinken’s visit to South Korea. Last year, North Korea successfully launched the Hwasong-19, a solid fuel Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) that can carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) and can target the whole of the U.S.
North Korea’s state media KCNA reported that during last month’s Plenum of the Central Committee of the Worker’s Party, Mr. Kim said North Korea would adopt the “toughest” strategy to counteract the U.S., claiming the alliance of the U.S., South Korea and Japan is a “nuclear military bloc” and South Korea has been an “anti-communist” outpost for the U.S. As expected, Mr. Kim also said North Korea would “bolster the country’s war deterrence.” Of note, a new premier was appointed – Pak Thae Song – and Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui, the first woman to hold this position, was promoted to the Politburo of the Party’s Central Committee. Interestingly, Ms. Choe is an American specialist who participated in all official and Track 1.5 unofficial meetings with the U.S., starting in 2003 with the Six Party Talks.
Having negotiated with North Korea from 2003 to 2016, I believe Pyongyang had one recurrent goal: a normal relationship with the U.S. In 1994 and 2005, with the Agreed Framework and the Joint Statement of the Six Party Talks, there was progress made with North Korea. Indeed, President-elect Donald Trump established a close and briefly productive relationship with Mr. Kim. The 2018 Singapore Summit was successful, but the 2019 Hanoi Summit ended abruptly, given Mr. Kim’s refusal to declare all nuclear facilities. A subsequent meeting in the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) was symbolic but noteworthy, given the strong personal relationship between Messrs. Trump and Kim.
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Giving up on North Korea should not be an option for the U.S. and its allies and partners. For 30 years Pyongyang was seeking a normal relationship with the U.S. – a relationship that would provide North Korea with security assurances, economic development assistance and international legitimacy. An alignment with Russia commits a heavily sanctioned North Korea to international pariah status, with no hope of international development assistance. This is not what Mr. Kim wants. His father, Kim Jong il, and his grandfather, Kim il Sung, would expect more from Mr. Kim.
Russia’s embrace of North Korea is tactical. Once North Korea ceases to be of value, Mr. Putin will move on, as Russia did in the past when they downgraded relations with North Korea in 1995. North Korea is being used by an ambitious Mr. Putin, determined to recreate the Russian empire.
Hopefully, the Trump administration will make North Korea a priority issue. President-elect Donald Trump can use his close personal relationship with Mr. Kim to reengage with North Korea, with the immediate prospect of sanctions relief and security assurances, in return for a halt to nuclear tests and missile launches and the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons. North Korea’s goal will be a normal relationship with the U.S. Our goal should be complete and verifiable denuclearization, something that will require years to accomplish.
This column by Cipher Brief Expert Ambassador Joseph DeTrani was first published in The Washington Times
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