OPINION — The recent tariffs against China are obviously getting a lot of attention. China is a major trading partner, so the idea of an escalating tariff or trade war raises legitimate economic concerns. Beyond the potential impact to American business and consumers, it’s an honest question if tariffs can actually result in a meaningful change in Chinese behavior toward the U.S. I leave that part of the debate to others.
China likely prefers this focus on a war of tariffs with the United States. That attention deflects from what China continues to do every day in the gray zone of competition to violate U.S. sovereignty, undermine U.S. national security, and diminish U.S. global influence.
For those unfamiliar with the term, we might describe “gray zone” as the geopolitical space between peace and war where nations conduct activities to advance their national interests and weaken their adversaries, without triggering a military response. Gray-zone activities may set the conditions for a future war, but remain below a threshold that would provoke an immediate military response.
China is probably willing to make some concessions in a tariff or trade war with the U.S. in order to meet more strategic objectives. If China can keep its gray-zone attacks against the United States in the background, overshadowed by the ebb and flow of tariffs and trade disputes, then it avoids having to acknowledge those ongoing attacks and it avoids any accountability for its actions. That outcome would be a win for China.
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If U.S. tariffs are meant to change China’s behavior, then China has much more to answer for. Fentanyl is a great place to start, but there’s more. Let me just hit a few highlights as a reminder:
U.S. critical infrastructure is under persistent assault by China; an effort which may go back for at least a decade. The group known as Volt Typhoon has infiltrated systems in vital sectors such as communications, energy, transportation, and water management. U.S. efforts have been robust in trying to identify and remove Chinese penetrations of our infrastructure, but the long-term threats to U.S national security remain high.
China is prolific at data theft, and the U.S. is its top target. In one case, more than a dozen U.S. telecom providers were breached, allowing hackers to capture real-time phone call audio, text messages, and data from millions of Americans. The Salt Typhoon group, another Chinese state-backed entity, has successfully infiltrated at least nine U.S. telecommunications networks as of 2024.
China is using theft of trade secrets, intellectual property, and technology from U.S. companies, with a priority on dual-use technologies, to close gaps in China’s industries and bring competing products to market faster. This directly undermines American economic interests, handicaps the U.S. private sector, and threatens to undermine a U.S. military and technology advantage.
Meanwhile, China’s state-backed hackers have attempted to interfere in U.S. elections. China is using a broad cognitive warfare approach and disinformation to sow discord and confusion among voters, create doubt about the reliability of U.S. elections and institutions, and undermine the integrity of American democracy.
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In its part of the world, China is actively working to erode U.S.-Taiwan relations and influence U.S. policy decisions through aggressive military maneuvers, cognitive warfare, economic coercion, and cyberattacks to test Taiwan’s resilience and defenses, weaken U.S. resolve, and deter U.S. intervention.
China continues to build artificial islands equipped with military installations in the South China Sea to change the geopolitical landscape. It is conducting provocative maritime operations against U.S. allies like the Philippines to intimidate and threaten its neighbors and to attempt to change the status quo of sovereignty and freedom of navigation. China is also intercepting U.S. aircraft and vessels in dangerous maneuvers aimed at asserting dominance over strategic waterways.
China is supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine to enable a strategic defeat of the U.S. and its allies. China’s support for Russia is more about China’s strategic objectives than those of Russia. China’s actions to support Russia represent a calculated gray-zone strategy to drain U.S. resources, weaken support within the U.S. for Ukraine, and focus attention away from Taiwan. As Russia fights its war against Ukraine, it is also fighting China’s gray war against the United States.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) serves as a tool for expanding its global influence at the expense of the United States. BRI practices include creating economic dependencies that leave nations indebted to Beijing, securing control over strategic ports and infrastructure with potential military application, establishing alternative trade networks that exclude Western influence, and undermining international standards that favor democratic governance and free markets. China is working to reshape global economic dynamics while sidelining American access, influence, and power.
As policymakers focus on trade imbalances and tariffs with China, it is crucial not to lose sight of these broader threats. Well beyond just unfair trade practices, China is waging a gray war against the U.S. We should not let China make minimal concessions on trade and provide the U.S. with a win while China continues its broad assault—effectively unanswered—on U.S. sovereignty, institutions, critical infrastructure, and global influence.
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