OPINION — President Donald Trump’s efforts to secure a peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine are admirable. Equally important, however, are security assurances for Ukraine.
More than two decades ago, during the Six Party negotiations with North Korea, and prior to the signing of the September 2005 Joint Statement committing North Korea to “verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in a peaceful manner,” the North Korea’s lead negotiator, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Kim Gye Gwan, insisted that any agreement include “security assurances” for North Korea. Those security assurances were provided: “The United States … has no intentions to attack or invade North Korea with nuclear or conventional weapons and North Korea and the U.S. undertook to respect each other’s sovereignty, exist peacefully together, and take steps to normalize their relations subject to their respective bilateral policies.”
The five countries negotiating with North Korea (China, South Korea, Japan, Russia and the U.S.) viewed North Korea’s insistence on security assurances as a reasonable request. North Korean negotiators, in private discussions with their U.S. counterparts, said security assurances were a merely a piece of paper that could be discarded by any future administration, while denuclearization was the dismantlement of nuclear warheads and missiles for which North Korea paid millions of dollars to acquire. But despite this reality, North Korea was willing to move forward with a denuclearization commitment, hoping to normalize relations with the U.S.
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As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth year, with over 700,000 casualties on both sides, it’s time to end this bloody war. But it’s also time to provide Ukraine with meaningful security assurances – and not just a “piece of paper” – to protect their independence and sovereignty. This is especially important given Russia’s violation of past security commitments made to Ukraine by the U.S., Russia and the United Kingdom in the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances of December 5, 1994. These assurances were meant to protect Ukraine against the threat or use of force against Ukraine’s territory or political independence, respecting the sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine. In exchange, Ukraine, then the third-largest nuclear weapons state, dismantled or provided Russia with over 1,900 nuclear warheads, Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles and long-range bombers. Indeed, this was complete and verifiable denuclearization.
In March 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine and declared the annexation of Crimea. The U.S, United Kingdom and Ukraine called the annexation a blatant violation of the security assurances in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. To date, Russia occupies Crimea, with very little likelihood that Crimea will ever be returned to Ukraine.
Hopefully, Mr. Trump will be successful in securing a peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine. China’s president Xi Jinping should be supportive of this effort to end the war. Although China is receiving a discounted price for the oil and gas they’re buying from Russia, China’s support to Russia – with dual use technology, machine tools and microelectronics – permits Russia to continue with its war of aggression in Ukraine. China’s international credibility with the European Union and the Global South and others has been measurably affected by China’s “no limits” support to Russia.
And the symbolism of North Korea providing troops to Russia, in addition to the North’s artillery shells and ballistic missiles, will finally end with a peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine. In turn, this could get the focus back to North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs and the importance of resuming negotiations with North Korea, with the goal of eventually securing the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
Working closely with our NATO allies, a peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine is achievable, especially with Mr. Trump’s focus on ending this war peacefully and ensuring we don’t stumble into World War III. But real guarantees of Ukraine’s security are an essential element in making that happen.
This column by Cipher Brief Expert Ambassador Joseph DeTrani was first published in The Washington Times
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