Mike Vigil is the former Chief of International Operations for the Drug Enforcement Administration. He is one of the most highly decorated agents within the agency. He is the author of DEAL and Metal Coffins: The Blood Alliance Cartel and Narco Queen.
The Cipher Brief: What should we be paying attention to given the current security situation in Mexico?
Vigil: The current security situation in Mexico can only be described as a cancerous criminal threat that is highly insidious in nature. The cartels have gotten stronger and more powerful in recent years. In my opinion, they have now become a powerful parallel government within the country. The flawed counter-drug policies beginning in 2006 with the kingpin strategy, under former president Felipe Calderon, created a shocking wave of violence throughout Mexico. Under his and his successor, Enrique Pena Nieto’s administrations, 31 of 37 drug capos were either killed or captured. Initially, it was seen as a great success until the cartels fragmented into several other organizations, which waged war against each other for territory and power, thereby increasing the level of violence.
The current president Lopez Obrador has adopted a non-conflictive approach known as "abrazos y no balazos," which has only made matters worse. This strategy has emboldened the cartels and allowed them to operate with impunity. During the first 12 months of Felipe Calderon's presidency, more than 18,000 killings were recorded. In 2012, the first year of Pena Nieto’s administration, there were slightly more than 10,000 homicides. Tragically, in the first 11 months of the Lopez Obrador presidency, the number has risen to 33,000.
The Cipher Brief: What is Mexico’s current national security strategy/force structure and how have recent geopolitical events with the U.S. impacted Mexico’s strategy as it relates to drug traffickers?
Vigil: While campaigning for the presidency, Lopez Orador indicated that he was going to put the military back in the barracks where they belonged and would not use them to combat the drug cartels. After being elected president by a landslide vote, he created a National Guard force, which began operations in June 2019. According to Lopez Obrador, this entity would initially consist of 70,000 officers from the army police, naval police, and the federal police. The National Guard is under military control and reports to Alfonso Durazo, the Minister of Security. Its designated objectives are to combat crime throughout the country and maintain public security. Many have expressed concern that past deployments by the military have led to significant human rights violations.
And creating the perfect storm of convoluted political ideology between Mexico and the U.S. is President Trump’s laser focus on undocumented migrants entering the country. This is one of his major policy objectives. Trump has threatened Mexico with an increase in import tariffs if they don’t stop the flow of migrants coming principally from Central America’s northern triangle. Tragically, this has forced Mexico to divert the National Guard’s attention from providing security to the country to addressing immigration at both its northern and southern borders.
The Cipher Brief: What, if anything can Mexico do to stem the rise in violence and the degrading security situation in Mexico?
Vigil: Addressing the violence and lack of security in Mexico is a complex problem that will definitely require long-term solutions. Corruption is endemic and undermines literally all of its institutions at the federal, state, and municipal levels. It has existed for many decades and it will take a herculean effort on the part of the government to eradicate it. Regardless, it is required before Mexico can effectively deal with curbing crime and violence.
It is also important to fully train and equip Mexico’s security forces to deal with sophisticated cartels and transnational organized crime. Currently, they are incapable of conducting complex criminal investigations or developing the intelligence to allow for intelligence driven operations. Secondly, the judiciary is extremely weak. Most crime goes unreported because of the lack of confidence that anything will be done. Only about 5% of all crime is prosecuted at the federal level and it is much worse in every state and municipality. Thirdly, its correctional system must be revamped to ensure that strong policies and procedures are implemented to prevent escapes and the intimidation of prison personnel. Professionalizing its staff and providing better salaries must also occur to eliminate corruption.
The Cipher Brief: Some have called for increased U.S. involvement in Mexico, including the use of national intelligence capabilities. Do you think the U.S. should get more involved in stabilizing security, and targeting and neutralizing threats facing Mexico and the southern U.S.? If so, what would that involvement look like?
Vigil: The U.S. should get more involved in working with Mexico in developing programs to address violence and the expansionist nature of organized crime. There are many options, but some of the most important include the increase of intelligence sharing that will assist Mexico to use its resources more effectively and target criminal networks with greater efficiency. The U.S. should also create a bilateral task force to help Mexico bridge the gap between federal, state, and municipal security forces. All areas must work seamlessly in order to secure the country and diminish violence and impunity for the rule of law. The task force can also help Mexico develop a comprehensive security strategy and then modify the security structure to align it with the proposed strategy. The U.S. must implement a strong policy to prevent the movement of weapons into Mexico, which allows criminals to attack government forces and the population in general. Currently, about 70% of the weapons used to commit acts of violence come from the U.S.
The Cipher Brief: How do you assess the current demand for illegal narcotics in the U.S., and its effect on the situation in Mexico?
Vigil: U.S. demand for illegal drugs is at the heart of Mexico’s violence problem. One of the current reasons for the rise in violence in Mexico is the escalating use of heroin and the increase of opium cultivation. This is caused by the insatiable desire for opioids in the U.S. Prescription drugs are quite expensive, and heroin has become a less expensive alternative. This has caused murderous turf wars in the cultivation areas between smaller criminal groups and large cartels for control of territory and smuggling routes. It all boils down to the basic law of economics. Supply will not exist without demand. Drug profits also allow the criminal groups in Mexico to purchase military grade weapons, which allows them to effectively confront the nation’s security forces.
Read more expert perspectives, insights and analysis in The Cipher Brief
