OPINION — As 2019 draws to a close, it is worth re-examining not only which leaders attracted media attention, but also looking ahead with respect to strategic trends and which world leaders merit the most attention by President Trump and his national security team. In this context, while the words said – or unsaid – are often very important, it’s also worthwhile to examine leadership actions and behaviors by President Trump’s foreign adversaries.
While the media often focuses – erroneously in my opinion – solely on what other leaders (as well as President Trump) say about each other, it risks missing the nuance of what wasn’t said, or what was done and acted upon. This was sorely evident in the reporting of the recent NATO summit, where Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s, President Emmanuel Macron’s and Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s adolescent comments regarding President Trump received more attention than the lack of a summit news conference, as well as the generally strong day-to-day relationships among NATO partners in this enduring and critically-important alliance.
The reactions of President Trump’s adversaries – in this case, silence and projection of power –speak volumes, and merit careful examination. Doing so is somewhat counterintuitive and paradoxical, as President Trump has long prided himself on his ability to develop transactional, business-like relationships with other ‘strongman’ leaders such as Russian President Vladimir Putin, North Korean Leader Kim Jong-Un, and Chinese President Xi Jinping. None of them have a Twitter account. They instead project power through silence, actions, and symbolic political behaviors. Their silence is often misinterpreted as weakness, rather than as strength, combined with patience, strategy and projection of substance and power. Such thinking arises not only from their personal positions, but also from their awareness of intelligence – especially, but not solely, in the example of President Putin - and how it is used in everyday, tactical and strategic decision-making. It reminds me of when a senior intelligence official once told me that the truest weapons of the CIA are silence and money. One might surmise that such a sentiment would resonate well with President Putin, President Xi, and Chairman Kim.
President Xi remains the most interesting figure to follow in 2020. He continues to exhibit resolve, patience, and strategic thinking in his handling of both the U.S.-China trade talks, as well as his management of the political crisis in Hong Kong. The fact that he has quietly waited, allowed the political situation to evolve, and has not reacted aggressively, as many pundits might have predicted – by crushing the Hong Kong opposition – is striking. It shows his ability to sense the differences between both Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the mainland. It suggests that President Xi sees Hong Kong, as a hybrid, truly part of one state, within two systems, and that his legendary patience and strategic outlook rules the day. It is a sign of strength, not weakness. But his silence (e.g. he has not commented regarding President Trump’s potential impeachment and/or 2020 election campaign) has not gone unnoticed by President Trump, who recently tweeted that their relationship has changed, and that they might not be friends as before. So Xi remains a leader to watch carefully in 2020.
President Putin has had a banner year of diplomatic triumphs in 2019, and he is likely to continue his adventuresome style of diplomacy – many refer to it in more sinister terms – in 2020. He has had extensive outreach to multiple countries, including the DPRK, China, Iran, the Ukraine, Turkey, as well as to countries in Africa at the recent Russia-Africa summit. President Putin’s Russia can be expected to meddle in a variety of elections in 2020, including in the U.S. and in Europe; he is also likely to react very angrily to having Russia kicked out of the 2020 Olympics and 2022 World Cup due to doping allegations. While silent regarding the recent NATO summit, the immature antics and comments of several NATO leaders [publicly] mocking an American President did not go unnoticed by President Putin, and his silence in this regard is striking, given his past fulsome, praiseworthy comments about President Trump’s abilities. So President Putin remains a leader to observe carefully in 2020.
Chairman Kim – with whom President Trump had bragged about “falling in love” with during 2018/2019 – has remained silent regarding President Trump. But his high-level deputies, including senior DPRK leaders such as Kim Yong-chol, UN Ambassador Kim Song, and Vice-Minister Choe Son-hui, have recently publicly criticized President Trump and his policies towards the DPRK, both stating that denuclearization is “off the table” and returning to the hostile language of 2017, when the DPRK’s media and top officials referred to the President as a “dotard.” While Chairman Kim has not openly criticized President Trump, the deterioration of their personal relationship – there has been no further exchange of their flowery diplomatic letters and communications – and Chairman Kim’s recent aggressive posture with respect to the DPRK’s nuclear diplomacy, as well as his symbolic actions (e.g. his recent visits on horseback to Mt. Paektu, which is sacred to both Koreas and to the Kim dynasty) risk signaling a return to ‘Fire and Fury’ and to the political, military and diplomatic challenges of 2017. However, I believe that Chairman Kim’s current approach to strategic brinksmanship – this is an old DPRK playbook - may backfire, not only with respect to President Trump, but also with respect to President Xi, with whom Chairman Kim had developed a good relationship since 2018. Whether or not this can mitigate the current challenges on the Korean Peninsula during 2020 remains to be seen. So Chairman Kim would be wise to return to his previously-exhibited diplomatic abilities – shown in 2018-2019 – and strategically and patiently await the chance to re-engage in diplomacy with the U.S., particularly should President Trump win re-election in 2020.
So the ‘leadership watch’ suggests that many of the same most powerful leaders in the world – President Trump, President Xi, President Putin, Chairman Kim – remain central figures worthy of attention in 2020. But they are well worth watching, not only in terms of words both spoken and unsaid (yes —- silence is a weapon), but also regarding political and symbolic actions undertaken in their combination of leadership style and projection of power. The evolution of their styles is also key, and seeing such leaders merely as ‘strongmen’ often dilutes from an understanding of their governance outcomes and their ability to remain in, utilize, and project power. So this phenomenon too, represents a dynamic worthy of observation in 2020.
Happy New Year, President Trump.
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