OPINION — Last month, during the CCP’s 20th Party Congress, China’s President and General Secretary Xi Jinping was appointed to an unprecedented third (5-year) term as General Secretary of the CCP, and the new members of the Central Committee, Politburo, and Politburo Standing Committee reflect Xi’s complete dominance of the CCP and its multiple – organizational, security, military, political, and economic – levels of control. Xi’s ascendance over the past decade as President and General Secretary and his increased power, ambition, and aspirational “Chinese dream of the rational rejuvenation” have made him the most powerful leader in China since Mao.
In leadership analysis of opaque, authoritarian leaders such as Xi, optics and body language can be useful metrics, albeit often ambiguous and seemingly intangible. This was evident during the last day of the 20th Party Congress, when former President and General Secretary Hu Jintao was forcibly removed from the meeting, in front of the world media. I found the video to be stunning and humiliating, as well as an awesome and ruthless display of Xi’s power.
What’s unclear is what Hu said to Xi (as well as others, or what Xi said to him) as he was being escorted out; the look on Xi’s face during this incident is striking indeed. Hu seemed bewildered and was attempting to take his or Xi’s papers, and then tried to grab the wrong folder. There was some apparent resistance at first but then Hu cooperated with his ‘escorts.’ This appears to have been a carefully stage-managed display of Xi’s power and humiliation of both Hu and his faction.
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The CCP carefully manages such key public events down to every detail. If Hu were suffering from dementia (or even mild cognitive impairment, as well as any form of ‘sundowning’), this would likely have been known internally and Xi and his leadership would likely not have given him a front-row seat at such a critical gathering. From other media reports, there were no other incidents noted of unusual behavior on Hu’s part during the rest of the week.
Planned or not, the video sent a message to the CCP, Central Committee, Politburo and to the rest of the world, that this is now totally Xi’s China. But Xi’s newly enhanced power and stature still raises the question of what his third term (likely for life) portends. Will he be a more aggressive leader, with further crackdowns domestically and more aggressive actions internationally? Or can he now, with his power secure, turn towards acting as a “responsible stakeholder” in a multipolar world?
In 2005, Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick gave a widely noted speech in which he said, “We need to encourage China to become a responsible stakeholder in the international system. As a responsible stakeholder, China would be more than just a member – it would work with us to sustain the international system that has enabled its success.”
Zoellick’s words carry – paradoxically – even more weight today than they did in 2005, as America, its allies, and adversaries (such as China, a near-peer competitor) engage diplomatically in a multipolar world of increasing complexity and threats. In this framework, Xi has repeatedly stressed China’s commitment to the existing rules-based order, while seeking greater Chinese influence and recognition as a global power and peer of America.
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Can China act as a responsible stakeholder today? While this term is seen by many as outdated, anachronistic, or just plain wrong, given today’s threats such as the Ukraine war and Russia’s genocidal actions, North Korea’s increasingly menacing missile tests (with a further nuclear test a very real possibility) and threat to the non-proliferation regime, climate change, Taiwan, supply chain challenges, worldwide inflation, worldwide recession, worldwide energy and food shortages, and the risks associated with the ongoing COVID pandemic, insisting upon – even demanding - China’s and Xi’s role as a responsible stakeholder is both necessary and critical. Zoellick’s phrase may be more relevant than he ever could have imagined.
Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with Xi last week, and of note – a clear message to Russia’s President Putin, and indirectly, to North Korea’s Chairman Kim Jong-un – from Xi and Scholz articulated opposition to the use and threats involving nuclear weapons. Xi’s current diplomatic outreach, both in meetings with Scholz and his likely attendance at this month’s G20 meeting in Bali, is welcome. A G20 meeting between Xi and President Biden would be highly useful to re-establish face-to-face dialogue at this level, and to reduce tensions between America and China. China’s assistance is likely key in resolving the Ukraine war (as a possible third-party mediator) and in encouraging North Korea to return to the negotiating table (as was the case during the 2005 Six-Party Talks and the 2018-2019 negotiations between President Trump and Chairman Kim). The promotion of China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi to the Politburo and Ambassador to the US Qin Gang to the Central Committee may bode well with respect to China’s future diplomatic efforts.
During his impressive career, both American and other intelligence agencies have often misjudged, or grossly underestimated Xi. While he is clearly the most powerful leader in China since Mao, and even possibly, the most powerful leader in the world today, it’s critical for President Biden and his national security team not to get Xi wrong, again. Dusting off and re-envisioning Zoellick’s 2005 phrase is a good start. Diplomatic engagement – not isolation or decoupling - between American and China is more salient than ever, both for world peace and for maintenance of a rules-based order. Openness to the possibility of Xi and China acting as responsible stakeholders is timely and prudent. For as Sun Tzu wrote thousands of years ago —- keep your friends close, and your enemies closer.
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