The Cipher Brief asked expert and retired four-star General David Petraeus for his big takeaways after attending last weekend's Munich Security Conference.
First, the wedge between the U.S. Administration and Europe is a good bit bigger than last year, and Russia, Iran, and China are working to highlight and exploit the differences. (Offsetting that somewhat was the largest U.S. congressional delegation ever to attend a MSC.) The speech by Chancellor Angela Merkel was a point-by-point, direct rebuttal of President Trump’s rhetoric and policies. Other European leaders echoed many of her sentiments; however, European countries’ actions to develop their own capabilities have not been particularly notable to date, and the reliance on, and centrality of the U.S. are still very evident in NATO and in many other spheres, as well.
Second, the challenges to a variety of “systems” have also grown significantly since last year, systems such as the rules-based international order, western democracy, and even traditional capitalism. And while many commented on these challenges, especially those of domestic populism in many of the major western democracies, there were few solutions put forward.
Third, and related to the second point, we are seeing “The Return of History,” with a renewed competition between competing systems – that of the U.S.-led western traditions of democratic governance and free market economics and that of the Chinese meritocratic one-party system and state capitalism. Needless to say, the west needs to up its game, given the challenges present in most of the major democracies of the world, in contrast to China’s extraordinary accomplishments over the past 40 years, since Deng Xiaoping opened China to the world. (As I make this observation, I also should note my continued belief that Winston Churchill was right when he observed that, “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.”)
Fourth, there is a new “red scare” – centered on China and tech, with repeated warnings about letting Huawei and others into 5G networks and concerns about high tech items from any supply chain that begins in China. Whether completely grounded in fact, or not (and not all are), the warnings are stark, and it is clear that countries are recognizing a need to make decisions on such issues. (I believe Germany will announce a decision in a week or so.) The result could be a gradual fracture of the global tech space and further balkanization of the worldwide web (which is already no longer truly worldwide). It is clear that China needs to take significant action if it is to re-establish trust in many of its major tech companies.
General David Petraeus, US Army (Ret), served as CIA Director from 2011 – 2012. Prior to that, General Petraeus served for over 37 years in the military, culminating his career with six consecutive commands, five of which were in combat, including the Multinational Force-Iraq during the Surge, US Central Command, and the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan. . He is currently a Partner in the global investment firm KKR and the Chairman of the KKR Global Institute.
General Petraeus will be providing a keynote address at the 2019 Cipher Brief Threat Conference in Sea Island, GA March 24-26. Request your invitation today.
