OPINION — Following his recent visit to Moscow, where China’s President Xi Jinping held lengthy meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Xi stated in parting that global power dynamics are shifting, in an evolving multipolar world, and that “together we should push forward changes that have not happened for 100 years.” Xi got the messaging right, but the date wrong. His recent diplomatic forays – since September 2022 - in Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and last week’s hosting of France’s President Emmanuel Macron in Beijing, show that in Xi’s mind, it’s really 1793. For that is the date of Britain’s mission to China by Lord George Macartney, an ill-fated and failed diplomatic journey, which cemented the Middle Kingdom’s role as an empire to whom foreigners should pay tribute. For Xi, a multipolar world is but the first step in his narrative of soaring ambition in which China becomes by 2049, the most powerful nation in the world, undoing a century of humiliation by the West.
The West keeps on underestimating Xi and China, especially after Xi’s recent appointment to an unprecedented 3rd term as General Secretary and President. While Xi faces many challenges, such as Taiwan, economic recovery from COVID as China re-opens, an aging population, the middle income trap, and shifting military alliances in Asia (e.g. AUKUS), his recent diplomatic engagements once again suggest that he is playing GO, while the West – especially a polarized, divided America – struggles to play checkers or tic tac toe. Xi is strategic, and he keeps on winning. We underestimate Xi and his strategy at our peril.
It is easy for western observers to downplay Xi’s successes. But his trip to Kazakhstan revealed a supremely confident Xi, establishing his position and that of China in central Asia, formerly Russia’s backyard and part of the former USSR. His trip to Saudi Arabia, with his subsequent endorsement and brokerage of the historic diplomatic deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran was masterful, leaving a bitter America on the side lines, where CIA Director William Burns (in his recent trip to Riyadh) reportedly expressed the White House’s displeasure and frustration – no fist bump photos noted here! - to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Xi’s trip to Moscow showcased his friendship with Russia’s President Putin (whom he has now met with on 40 occasions), but it also highlighted Xi’s increasingly dominant role in their “no limits” friendship. Xi’s friendship with Putin allows China to buy Russian oil and gas at cut-rate prices, while maintaining a strategic posture that a mortally weakened Russia is dangerous for China’s long-term interests.
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President Macron’s trip to Beijing and Guangzhou last week, reminds one of the ‘kowtowing’ of Lord Macartney’s 1793 mission. Xi proved a marvelous host, showcasing China’s achievements, history, culture, and beauty. To truly understand Xi’s perspective, the setting, symbolism, and body language are critical. In Guangzhou, Xi and Macron held informal meetings in the lovely, historic Pine Garden, where they strolled together while conversing. For Xi, the symbolism is key, as Guangzhou was a starting point for the Maritime Silk Road over 1000 years ago, and more recently, the city/province which began China’s opening up in the 1980s under Deng Xiaoping. Their talks ended with the pair listening to a rendition of “Lofty Mountains and Flowing Streams,” a song meant to signify ‘bosom friends,’ played on a Guqin, a historic Chinese musical instrument dating back hundreds of years. The trip ended with President Macron’s remarks to journalists while flying back to Paris, in which he claimed that France would not follow America’s lead regarding Taiwan’s security, emphasizing that the EU should become the world’s “third superpower …. [and] build strategic autonomy,” and even suggesting that Europe should reduce its dependence on the “extraterritoriality of the U.S. dollar.” Xi could not have said it better — or been more pleased. Macron’s interview comments highlighted Xi’s remarkable success in today’s great power competition, and his role as the most powerful and influential leader in the world today.
Xi’s sophisticated diplomacy and soft power have always been paired with strategic thinking (the concept of shi, described by Professor David Lai as “the alignment of forces, the propensity of things, or the potential born of disposition”), ruthlessness, and an increasingly aggressive posture regarding China’s domestic and international interests. Recently, China responded to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s meeting in California with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen with furious military reaction, sending warships and fighter jets to Taiwan in a 3-day “combat readiness patrol,” once again raising tensions and concerns regarding a possible future invasion of Taiwan.
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The recent leaks of Pentagon documents raise the question of which actors have the capabilities to carry this out, and more importantly, who benefits? The answer to the latter question is easy: China! It has the motive and capabilities (example: PLA Unit 61398) to carry out such a hack/leak of US government secret documents (note the 2015 OPM hack), although attribution remains unclear at this point. First of all, none of the leaks (so far) hurt or mention China. Second, the overall leaks damage the U.S. and its intelligence community, making it appear an unreliable partner, especially with key allies such as Israel, Korea, Europe, and the Five Eyes. In Xi’s eyes, the US has become an unreliable superpower, and one incapable of such a trustworthy role. Xi has often stated, the East is rising, and the West is in decline, suggesting that America is a fading power, unable to utilize its huge budgets and capabilities strategically and successfully. The leakage of both Ukrainian and Russian military documents doesn’t necessarily harm China’s interests, as Xi has repeated that China desires a peaceful, diplomatic resolution of the Ukraine war. Such an outcome – possibly brokered by China and mentioned in its recent 12-point peace plan – serves China’s long-term strategic goals, while not necessarily damaging Russia (or Putin) in the process. A stable, prosperous Russia is indeed in China’s interest. Last of all, the leaks have to make both Taiwan jittery, as well as causing concern with respect to Asian alliances with America more generally. The leaks greatly embarrass the Biden administration in the run-up to the 2024 election and are likely to cause additional paralysis in America’s already-dysfunctional political system. They are a ‘win-win’ for Xi and China.
In 1793, China’s Emperor sent a humiliating letter to England’s King George, remarking on the superiority of China’s civilization, while rejecting all of the King’s diplomatic entreaties. The leaders of the West today, must surely feel similar to Lord Macartney, during our time in which Xi can play host, ‘winning’ and achieving his diplomatic objectives, and meanwhile choosing whom to call – Presidents Biden and Zelensky are still waiting - or whom to meet with as they pay tribute. Yes, President Xi is correct, it’s a new and challenging multipolar world indeed, where 2023 feels a lot like 1793, in which China is playing GO, Russia is playing chess (poorly), and the West struggles to play checkers, or tic-tac-toe. And until we understand him better, and learn to think and act like Xi, he will, sadly, keep on winning.
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