OPINION — The third plenum of the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee, from July 15-18, normally discusses major economic policy initiatives for the next five to ten years. This year, however, the 205 members and 171 nonvoting members have probably also been discussing a cascading number of geopolitical issues affecting China.
The NATO summit declaration, after three days of meetings in Washington to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, said China was a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war against Ukraine through its so-called no-limits partnership and its support for Russia’s defense industrial base. China’s Foreign Ministry immediately responded, accusing NATO of malicious intent, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi accusing NATO of “unfounded accusations.”
Interestingly, since July 8, China has sent troops for joint military exercises with Belarus in the city of Brest, just over three miles from the border with Poland. This was the first time that China sent troops for military exercises in Europe, billed as anti-terrorism drills. Belarus recently joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, or SCO — which includes China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, India, Iran and Pakistan.
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South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand’s invitation to participate in the NATO meetings in Washington possibly contributed to China’s decision to conduct joint military exercises with Belarus, an ally of Russia. China has been outspokenly critical of NATO, with China’s Foreign Ministry “urging NATO to stop interfering in China’s internal politics and smearing China’s image and not create chaos in the Asia-Pacific after creating turmoil in Europe.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s June 19 visit to Pyongyang to meet with Kim Jong Un and memorialize a “comprehensive strategic partnership with North Korea” contributed to concerns in East Asia that an emboldened North Korea, likely to receive nuclear, missile, satellite and conventional weapons assistance from Russia, could incite conflict on the Korean Peninsula, with likely spillover instability into Northeast Asia and beyond.
This new allied Russian relationship with North Korea is understandably of concern to South Korea and Japan, with more willingness to work more closely with NATO, while ensuring that the U.S. and its extended nuclear deterrence commitments are enhanced, with an active nuclear consultative process.
Of course, Russia reportedly continues to receive from North Korea the artillery shells and ballistic missiles it needs for its war of aggression in Ukraine. The recent visit of a senior North Korean military delegation to Moscow indicates the greater assistance North Korea is likely prepared to provide Russia.
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Russia’s new and upgraded relationship with North Korea must be of some concern to the leadership in Beijing. An emboldened North Korea may incite conflict with South Korea as it did in 2010 with the sinking of a South Korean frigate, killing 47 seamen. Any provocation, whether in the West Sea at the Northern Limit Line (the recognized maritime border between the Koreas) or in the Demilitarized Zone, will be met with a strong response from South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and his administration, committed to a strong defense policy.
Indeed, a nuclear North Korea and the potential for conflict on the Korean Peninsula, with likely instability in Northeast Asia, is not in China’s interest. China focuses on Taiwan and the South China Sea, especially with the Philippines and the situation with Second Thomas Shoal, and in the East China Sea with the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Tai).
Chaos in Eurasia may be Mr. Putin’s eventual intent, but China needs to focus on its economy and a stated policy of “innovation through greater disruptive technology and scaling up high-end manufacturing.” Russia’s new alliance with North Korea could interfere with China’s emphasis on economic growth, innovation, jobs for young people and fixing the housing market. Indeed, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s focus is on top-down and centralized economic governance, which are goals he’s determined to accomplish at the third plenum.
But although developments with NATO and Russia’s new allied relationship with North Korea are issues that could detract from the plenum’s focus on the economy, issues with China’s People’s Liberation Army and the news that former Defense Minister Wei Fenghe is accused of treason and disloyalty are unprecedented developments that could also generate dialogue at the plenum. Indeed, this followed the removal of Defense Minister Li Shangfu and senior officers in China’s Rocket Force — issues dealing with China’s military preparedness.
The third plenum hasmuch to discuss, with a focus on its economy and the geopolitical dynamics of a no-limits partnership with a revanchist Russian Federation.
This column by Cipher Brief Expert Ambassador Joseph DeTrani was first published in The Washington Times
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