Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri recently released a video calling on Muslims to unite against what he calls an “international infidel alliance”. The video was released as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley reminded the world that we “cannot forget the enduring threat posed by al-Qaeda. ISIS may have captured more headlines in recent years, but al-Qaeda leaders are still plotting attacks around the world. This includes a large remaining al-Qaeda presence in Syria, Yemen, and other parts of the world.”
We asked Cipher Brief Expert Admiral James ‘Sandy’ Winnefeld, former Vice Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, for his thoughts on where he believes al-Qaeda is today, some 17 years after 9/11.
My sense is that the Al Qaeda brand is severely tarnished within the Muslim world. Nothing succeeds like success. Al Qaeda's stock soared in the wake of 9/11 when they conducted a highly credible, game-changing attack on a vulnerable enemy, and became public enemy number one. However, now that they have been seriously beaten down, their message coming from South Asia seems shrill and tinny. Ayman al Zawahiri has little gas left in the tank, and I've not seen evidence of a charismatic leader emerging in his wake. Their strength in Saudi Arabia has been suppressed, and was never really a factor in the Emirates and other nations on the Peninsula. Al Qaeda is slowly being choked as a sideshow in the war in Yemen. It retains some strength in Syria, but has never really been a major player there and any remnants are about to be crushed by the combined Syrian/Russian offensive around Idlib. Their affiliate in Somalia is a local force, but not a major threat to the West.
Meanwhile, ISIL's strategic mistake of trying to take and hold territory in the greater Middle East resulted in a transformational battlefield defeat for what became the new leaders of the jihadi movement. It clearly demonstrated to the majority of the movement the inefficacy of such a strategy. Perhaps the more perceptive members of the movement actually realized that ISIL's approach represented premature entry into the classic third phase of the Mao-ist approach to guerrilla warfare, namely, use of conventional force to overthrow governments.
The jihadi movement remains committed to its array of causes. The open question remains: what comes next and who will lead it? Leadership will likely fall to someone who demonstrates a new approach, which will require two elements.
First, it will require a refreshed message regarding what the jihadi movement is trying to accomplish in the first place and why: principally the overthrow of apostate regimes and the removal of any Western influence from Muslim lands. This message is not resonating well at the moment for a variety of reasons, among which are 1) it hasn't worked so far and 2) emerging regimes like the one led by Muhammed bin Sulman in Saudi Arabia, for all its flaws, seem to offer hope to a younger generation that change is coming. But perhaps a younger voice will emerge with the charisma to sustain the movement.
The second element is the tactics this person might consider. While local one-off attacks, including home-grown threats, can gather temporary shock headlines and will no doubt continue, they have been rendered strategically ineffective due to two decades of improvements in intelligence, cooperation between law enforcement and intelligence, cooperation among nations, and increased security measures. Although increased attention to peer threats such as Russia and China could diminish efforts to counter the jihadi movement's penchant for violence, it is not likely the movement will achieve its goals in this manner.
Rather, we should look for a new leader using a different lever, which in my view will most likely center on high leverage information warfare and cyber attacks. We should be asking who the emerging “Ibrahim-al-Asiri of cyber” is, (al-Asiri was Al Qaeda's most effective bombmaker until he was killed in a recent drone strike) and how hard it will be to find that new person and counter his attacks. If someone emerges with both a compelling message and the ability to leverage high technical competence in cyber and information warfare, momentum could be restored. And whichever group captures this person’s allegiance—under Al Qaeda, or ISIL, or some other banner—then that is likely where the movement will be revived, if at all.
