Members Only NATO’s Emergency Session Will Move Us Closer to What?
“The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief […] More
Members-only Briefs & Analysis
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This is NATO’s Casablanca Moment
OPINION — In the 1942 Hollywood classic Casablanca, Ingrid Bergman, playing Ilsa Lund famously says, “Play it, Sam.” A little under a year later, the […] More
Deal or No Deal on Iran’s Nuclear Program?
Bottom Line: After a several-day hiatus brought about by a now-withdrawn Russian demand concerning relief from newly imposed Western sanctions, JCPOA talks appear ready to […] More
Soviet Espionage Under the Cover of Diplomacy
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Immediately after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last month, the US government expelled 13 Russian diplomats working at the United Nations. It did […] More
US Intelligence is only as Good as what goes into it
OPINION — Officers in the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)’s Directorate of Operations (DO) have a penchant for action and readiness to serve in any circumstance. […] More
Members Only The Cornered Putin Problem
“The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief […] More
Members Only How Russians Can Bring an End to Putin’s Chekist State
“The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief […] More
Members Only With His only Option being Escalation, this is How Putin’s War Must End
“The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief […] More
How Putin is Drawing the World into its Most Dangerous Time in History
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Putin has been sucked into the conquest and occupation of a hostile Ukraine; the very circumstance he has sought to avoid over […] More
Members Only China and the Global Power Play in Ukraine
“The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief […] More
Members Only Ukraine and an Assessment of how a Bad Situation Could Get Much Worse
“The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief […] More
‘Watch’ or ‘Stand Against’ the Digital Machinery of Aggression in Ukraine
OPINION — The machinery of aggression moves across the land of the people of Ukraine to their capital. There should be no words to argue […] More
Intelligence Isn’t Just for Commanders Anymore
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Intelligence is for commanders, or at least so I’ve been told. Regardless of the term you prefer—commander, principal, or policymaker—the idea expressed […] More
Members Only Could This be Putin’s Big Tango?
“The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief […] More
The Real Power of Intelligence ‘Auxiliaries’
The democratization of intelligence is changing how espionage is done – and by whom. How can states best achieve their aims in an age of […] More
Members Only The US is Engaging in a Strategy to Share Intelligence on Russia More Broadly. Is it Worth the Risk?
“The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief […] More
The Intelligence Game is Changing. Are We Ready?
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — As retirees of the Clandestine Service at the CIA, we worked for decades in the shadows around the world, at ease in […] More
The Outlier: What if Putin’s Real Target isn’t Ukraine?
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — We have a long history of misreading Russian intentions. The classic example was the judgement by the British Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) […] More
How Iran is Winning, One Attack at a Time
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — This week, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) issued a statement confirming that “U.S. forces at Al Dhafra Air Base, near Abu Dhabi in the United […] More
Want to Dominate in Cyber? Better Change your Policy.
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE/OPINION — Following the early 2021 cyberattacks against Colonial Pipeline that led to widespread gas shortages on the U.S East Coast, the U.S. government […] More
Putin’s Risky Options in Ukraine
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — It is still more probable than not that Russian President Vladimir Putin will employ military force in the coming weeks. He is […] More
Members Only Anticipating Russia’s Next Move in Ukraine
“The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief […] More
Dynamics in the Middle East are Shifting, but in which Direction?
The dynamics of the Middle East are changing. From a protracted pandemic to a rise in Chinese interest and influence in the region and a […] More
The Value of a Well-Placed Spy in Moscow
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — I hope CIA has an agent like Dmitry Polyakov operating in Moscow right now. A Major General in Soviet Military Intelligence (the […] More