The problems plaguing the Northern Triangle—Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador—are plenty, but for retired DEA Agent Michael Vigil one stands out among the rest. “Drug trafficking is synonymous with violence and the Northern Triangle is not exempt to this rule,” he explained. Even more problematic, the resulting violence is not isolated to these three countries. Michael Vigil assesses how instability in the Northern Triangle impacts neighboring countries and how the U.S., whose large drug consumption is partly to blame for the booming drug trafficking industry, can help address these pressing concerns to bring greater regional stability.
The Cipher Brief: How would you assess the violence from the Northern Triangle countries? Is the security situation there improving or worsening?
Michael Vigil: The three Northern Triangle nations of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala are considered some of the most violent in the world. All three have staggering homicide rates—much more so than other Central American countries.
In 2015, El Salvador, with a population of six and a half million people, suffered over 6, 600 murders. This topped the list for the world’s highest rate of homicides—a whopping 104 per 100,000 people. The country currently has the most gang members per capita in Central America. Gangs, such as the 18th Street and the MS-13, have been responsible for several massacres and the killing of police, judges, and other public officials. Retaliation by the government has led to extra judicial killings of gang members, which has aggravated the chaos and uncovered the lack of security. El Salvador has conducted mass arrests for suspicion of illegal gang affiliation seeking to curb the horrendous murder rate. This ill-conceived plan led to prison overcrowding and taxed the government’s ability to maintain control over its correctional facilities.
In August 2015, violence in El Salvador claimed the lives of 907 people, a number bordering on the level of killings the country experienced during the country’s civil war between 1980-1992. In 2012, a fragile truce between the warring MS-13 and the 18th Street gangs resulted in a dramatic 40 percent decrease in homicides. The truce didn’t last, which led to 4,232 murders in the first eight months of 2015, compared to 2,583 within the same period in 2014.
Violence in Honduras has decreased with the election of President Juan Orlando Hernandez in 2013. The rate of homicides has been reduced from 79 per 100,000 to 68 per 100,000 since he took office. Unfortunately, Honduras has a less than stellar record in addressing endemic corruption. Honduras, with a population of approximately eight million people has an estimated 36,000 street gang members. The MS-13 and the 18th Street gangs are the most violent and powerful. The two gangs have approximately 85,000 associates in the Northern Triangle alone.
Guatemala also has one of the most prolific crime rates in Central America. Guatemala City, the nation’s capital, has approximately 53 gangs operating in the area. Again, the two most significant groups are the MS-13 and the 18th Street gangs. Its homicide rate is 39 per 100,000.
In comparison, the United States only has about four murders per 100,000 people.
Overall, the security situation in the so-called Northern Triangle has worsened. The area recorded a total of 17, 422 murders in 2015, eleven percent higher than in 2014. Noteworthy, El Salvador was the country primarily responsible for the Northern Triangle increase. It had a staggering 60 percent spike in homicides from 2014. Extremely weak institutions, rife with corruption, continue to undermine efforts to address gang violence. The poverty levels exacerbate inequality and strain public services.
Also contributing to the horrific situation is that 95 percent of crimes go unpunished in many areas. The public has little trust in the security forces and much of the crime goes unreported. Extortion, a cottage industry, is rampant. It is estimated that citizens in the Northern Triangle pay $600 million in annual extortion fees. Attacks on the people who do not pay also contribute to the violence. Guatemala’s transportation sector has been a main target of extortionists. In 2014, in excess of four hundred transportation workers were killed and local authorities linked most of the cases to extortion. There has not be a noticeable decrease in violent crimes such as assault, theft, armed robbery, carjacking, rape, kidnapping, and murder for hire
TCB: What are the major causes of this violence? What differentiates these countries from their notably more peaceful neighbors in Central America, like Costa Rica and Panama?
MV: Although there are distinct differences among the three countries, they also have commonalities in terms of the violence. Gangs have infiltrated communities and now compete for territory and power. The gang rivalries manifest themselves in revenge killings, which have become commonplace.
The U.S. continues to have one of the highest rates of illegal drug consumption in the world, which has converted many Central American countries into major transshipment points. The interdiction efforts of Mexico and the U.S. have also pushed the drug trade into the area. It is estimated that 80 percent of the cocaine sent to the U.S. initially transits Central America. Eighty-five percent of the cocaine flights leaving South America first land in Honduras. Gangs, through violence, struggle for control of the lucrative drug trade. They take advantage of the weak institutions in the Northern Triangle and buy protection from corrupt officials. Those that do not accept bribes are killed as an example to others. Additionally, in the mid-1990’s, the U.S. began deporting large numbers of young Central Americans, many of whom were gang members. This was the catalyst for the cancerous spread of gangs and violence into the Northern Triangle.
The availability of weapons from the U.S. and stockpiles from the various civil wars in Central America are the tools of the trade for wholesale violence. At least 77 percent of all murders in the region are committed with a firearm. The threat of violence through the use of firearms is also undermining governance in the area. Local police are out-gunned by criminals who have military grade weapons.
Some of the aforementioned factors distinguish the Northern Triangle countries from many of their neighbors, but is it important to consider individual issues as well.
Guatemala, Central America’s most populous country, continues to be one of the more unstable countries in the region. Its internal armed conflict lasted 36 years, claiming approximately 200,000 lives, which caused a pervasive culture of fear and violence. The primary victims of the conflict were Guatemala’s indigenous population that remains largely excluded from political, social, economic, and cultural life. This exclusion has created massive poverty, making isolated communities fertile areas for criminal organizations seeking to establish local control.
Honduras, with an extended coastline on the Caribbean and vast ungoverned territories, has greatly suffered from organized crime and gang activity from its own political crisis in 2009. The military coup, which ousted then president Manuel Zelaya, led to two years of political conflict, causing the neglect of organized crime activity and leading to the withholding of much-needed foreign assistance. Honduras also boasts the largest criminal gang presence in the region.
El Salvador, with the smallest area and the densest population in Central America is also the epicenter and headquarters of the MS-13, the most violent transnational criminal gang in the region. El Salvador is highly susceptible to the cooperative efforts between gangs and external drug cartels, which complicates efforts to reduce crime. Policies implemented to reduce violence have not yielded positive results. The mass incarceration of suspected gang youth has transformed prisons into recruiting centers for criminal groups.
TCB: How has illegal immigration and illicit trafficking changed over time in light of this increase in violence? How does this impact the region and how is this trend likely to change moving forward?
MV: The increase in violence has resulted in nearly ten percent of the Northern Triangle’s 30 million residents to flee, mostly to the U.S. Interestingly, in 2013, almost three million people born in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras were living in the U.S., up from an estimated one and a half million people in 2000. An estimated 100,000 unaccompanied minors arrived in the U.S. from the Northern Triangle between 2013 and 2015. Mexico, at the urging of the U.S., increased operations on its southern border. It apprehended 70 percent more Central Americans in 2015 than it did the previous year. Between 2009 and 2013, the U.S. recorded a sevenfold increase in people seeking asylum at its southern border, 70 percent of whom were from the Northern Triangle. Other countries in the area—Belize, Costa Rica, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Panama—also recorded a similar increase.
Drug trafficking in the Northern Triangle has become deeply rooted in all aspects of society as criminal organizations have taken advantage of the instability caused by violence. These countries, each for specific reasons, are now confronting the significant presence of several powerful drug trafficking networks, such as the Zetas and the Sinaloa Cartel, which they are completely unable to control. Drug cartels have proven extremely adroit at exploiting weaknesses in the Northern Triangle: small size, limited resources, poverty, lack of integration, weak governments, unstable economies, and ineffective security forces.
Unfortunately, a deeper underlying factor is that the largest consumer of cocaine continues to be the U.S., with an estimated consumption of approximately 160 metric tons of cocaine. This is equivalent to 36 percent of global consumption. This demand sustains drug trafficking in Latin America and forces Central America to act as middlemen.
The impact on the region is instability, which threatens existing democratic institutions. Desperate people are willing to seek alternatives to democracy, including local oligarchs to an authoritarian military government. At the present time, the region remains dependent on remittances, and the loss of human capital undermines progress. Crime in the region is also a strong barrier to business growth in the region.
Moving forward, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador will continue to deal with social and economic issues that have been aggravated by rampant violence, insecurity, corruption, weak governments, and drug trafficking. The three countries are unable to advance and grow quickly enough to reduce poverty, in part due to a lack of domestic and foreign investment. Furthermore, the justice system must be systematically strengthened in order to attack the problems of violence and insecurity.
TCB: Understanding that much of this violence is related to drug wars, how does this impact U.S. national security? What can the U.S. do to more effectively address the drug trade?
MV: Drug trafficking is synonymous with violence and the Northern Triangle is not exempt to this rule. The weak security in the countries of Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador not only pose a major threat to Central America, but to the national security of the U.S. Geographical location, close proximity, weak governance, economic stagnation, emigration, crime, and violence, all pose a clear and present danger to the U.S. and the region.
We cannot underestimate the national security threat derived from the gangs, such as the MS-13, 18th Street, and organizations, such as the Zeta’s and the Sinaloa cartel, that control large areas in all three countries and employ diverse forms of organized crime to advance their interests. These gangs and cartels create massive corruption in a multitude of government officials causing people to be less supportive of democracy and the rule of law. Weak institutions and limited funding have created a petri dish and safe haven for drug networks.
In order to address the insidious drug trade in the region, the U.S. needs to provide adequate funding for long-term capacity building of law enforcement and judicial institutions. This includes structured and intensive training and technical support designed to enhance their present capabilities, which will strengthen security and the rule of law.
The sharing of information is critical and therefore strategically placed intelligence fusion centers in the region should be established to collect, analyze, and disseminate data on gang members, drug traffickers, drug routes, stash locations, money laundering, etc. This will assist law enforcement agencies in conducting intelligence driven operations, allowing for better allocation of limited resources.
Also, comprehensive strategies need to be developed for much needed border control and management that will restrict the movement of drugs through the region. This will include vehicles, patrol aircraft, unattended ground sensors, night vision systems, and other miscellaneous items.
We also need better control of coastlines to address maritime smuggling. This will require resources to patrol the expansive waters. Assistance must also be provided to expand government presence to isolated towns and villages, which create safe havens for drug traffickers and other criminals.
TCB: The United States and Northern Triangle governments have been addressing the Northern Triangle violence through the Plan of the Alliance for Prosperity. What can these governments do to better address the violence problem?
MV: Under pressure from the United States following the 2014 surge in migration, the governments of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, together with the Inter-American Development Bank, created the Plan of the Alliance for Prosperity, a five-year, $20 billion plan to boost economic growth, promote job creation and training, improve public safety, and strengthen institutions. The Northern Triangle leaders pledged to fund 80 percent of it, yet it is uncertain whether their legislatures will approve the funding.
One of the first priorities should be to strengthen the judicial and police institutions. The region’s ineffective and corrupt legal systems are severely hampering efforts to curb violence. It is also important to train and equip the police forces to make them more capable to deal with violent crime and drug trafficking. Better salaries and screening processes are needed to attract and select highly qualified police candidates. Other reforms that need to be made include:
- Preventive programs that not only focus on at risk youths, but also include more direct efforts with criminally active youth, need to be implemented.
- Host nations need to undertake anti-corruption measures to identify and prosecute public officials that erode the rule of law. In other words, they need to clean their own house of impunity, which undermines their ability to deal with crime and violence.
- Major criminals who wield significant resources and criminal infrastructures need to be extradited to the U.S. This will remove them from the support of their networks and diminish their ability to intimidate or bribe officials.
- The citizens of the Northern Triangle do not trust nor do they have confidence in the police and therefore much of the crime goes unreported. Community policing programs need to be established in which police officers interact with citizens on a daily basis.
- A regional committee should be established to discuss best practices and policies to deal with violence and crime. The committee, as a collective body, should assist one another in the establishment of government programs to effectively address the pervasive violence.
- Resources from donor countries should be allocated to those governments that display a willingness to address violence and governance. If governments are reluctant to make progress, funding will only be wasted.
- Northern Triangle countries need to greatly strengthen their gun control laws. Most of the violence in the region is committed with firearms.
- The exchange of intelligence is absolutely necessary in order to exploit the vulnerabilities of drug trafficking and criminal groups. It will require a regional approach to include the U.S. and the source countries in South America. As Chief of International Operations for the DEA, I created the Centers for Drug Intelligence, which now have a global reach. These Centers can easily serve this purpose.
