EXPERT OPINION – Dear 47th President of the United States, congratulations on your victory and thank you for your willingness to serve as the leader of the most powerful country in the world at, what is no doubt, the most complicated and potentially dangerous period in our country’s history.
As a 35-year veteran of the U.S. National Security community who spent most of my career studying the Soviet Union and Russian Federation (RF) and someone who spent countless hours working to identify and disrupt threats directed at our country by Russia, I want to make sure that you know a few things I know.
I began my career working on the “Soviet target” in the Intelligence Community in 1989, and had a front row seat to the collapse of the USSR, the end of the Cold War, Washington’s efforts to develop relations with Moscow throughout the 1990s, and was a witness the start of Cold War 2.0 in the late 1990’s, when Vladimir Putin was brought to power by those who never accepted the outcome of the first Cold War.
I lived and worked in Russia and parts of the former Soviet Union for many years, learned to speak the language fluently, interacted with hundreds of Russians on a wide range of political, security, cultural and social issues and spent many hours participating in U.S. Government” Interagency” discussions on the formulation and execution” of Russia policy throughout different administrations.
What I’d most like you to understand as the new President, is that you are inheriting a highly dysfunctional bilateral relationship with Moscow.
While we may not like it, Russia maintains the ability to cause great harm to the U.S. and its allies and continues to create serious complications for the U.S. domestically and in our bilateral and multilateral relations with other countries and organizations.
Your administration will have to develop and put into place an effective policy aimed at containing the threats posed by Russia while potentially enabling an improvement of our relationship with Moscow and stopping other geopolitical competitors from exploiting Russia’s vast natural wealth and geographic position to expand their own influence - while undermining ours.
Getting Russia “right” is a critical task for you and your team and “getting it wrong” can have dire consequences for both the U.S. and the rest of the world. I hope that some of my experience dealing with the Russians over the past 35 years will prove useful to you and those you select to serve in your cabinet as they formulate America’s new “Russia policy”.
Putin Is Not Our Friend
Putin does not want to be your friend: Don’t waste time trying to make “friends” with him. All of the occupants of the Oval Office since 2000, have tried to win Putin’s ‘friendship’. None have succeeded.
Putin was raised to mistrust the U.S. and view the country you now lead as his enemy. He has demonstrated, via his actions, that he does not want to be “friends”. But you can make him respect you.
Despite all of the propaganda that Putin’s regime produces aimed at portraying the U.S. and weak and divided, he knows that we are the wealthiest and most powerful country in the world, and you have the means to cause him and his regime serious damage and pain, should you decide to use it. In handling Putin, you might consider adopting the approach of President Theodore Roosevelt and “Walk tall and carry a big stick”.
Subscriber+Members have exclusive access to the Open Source Collection Daily Brief, keeping you up to date on global events impacting national security. It pays to be a Subscriber+Member.
Knowing that the United States can inflict serious pain on his regime, Putin for years, consistently stuck to a policy of “deterrence” to manipulate and control your predecessors. The most recent example can be seen in his war of aggression against Ukraine. Putin has repeatedly deterred your predecessor from adopting the types of forward leaning policies needed to allow Ukraine to achieve victory by hinting that he might use nuclear weapons if the U.S. “crosses” one of his “redlines”.
Please note that Putin has identified a number of “redlines” that forced significant delays or inaction by the previous administration in its support for Kyiv but in those cases where his redlines were crossed, the Russian “strongman” failed to follow through with his threats.
President Ronald Reagan may have been the last U.S. President who understood how to deal with someone like Putin. Reagan recognized that he was the leader of the greatest and most powerful nation in the world and that if he demonstrated the courage needed to stand up to Soviet threats and nuclear sabre rattling, the Soviets would backdown.
Reagan also understood that by showing the people of the Soviet Union that someone could stand up to the corrupt Communist Party leadership that ruled them for decades they might find the inspiration needed to challenge the Kremlin. As the President of the United States, you should be willing to call Putin’s bluffs and stand up to his threats.
Use your “Whole of Government”
For years, the U.S. has suffered from a poorly coordinated approach to Russia that has failed to generate a ‘all of government’ approach to relations with the Kremlin. While the State Department was trying to pursue one policy toward Russia, the Department of Defense or Federal Bureau of Investigation pursued separate approaches that were often in conflict with one another. As President, you should assign a senior official with relevant Russia experience to oversee and coordinate your cabinet’s work. Empower this member of your team to help you develop a Russia policy and execute that policy – rewarding those elements of the Executive Branch that work together to support the policy and punishing those who insist on pursuing their own policies. Task this official with engaging members of the legislative branch to secure Congressional support for your Russia policy. The U.S. cannot afford to squander precious resources by allowing two parts of your administration to pursue approaches to the Kremlin that contradict one another, especially in a world where the U.S. faces so many dangerous foreign policy threats.
Study the Russian style of “negotiations”
It is very possible that during your Presidency, Moscow will propose talks or negotiations. They may suggest that they are ready to discuss a resolution to the war in Ukraine or another one of the many bilateral conflicts we have today. While you should never rule out the possibility of dialogue, you should be careful. History tells us why.
When the Russians proposed talks in Syria during the Obama Administration and then again during the Trump administration, they sent negotiators to sit down with their American counterparts while continuing to aggressively pursue military objectives. That means that as Americans and Russians ‘negotiated’ in Geneva, Vienna or other international capitals, Russian and Syrian regime forces continued to attack and kill targets.
Remember that on Ukraine, the Russians will often try to use the promise of negotiations to peel one NATO country off from another, make our allies feel “left out” or promise our allies a special relationship with Moscow if they agree to Russian demands before others and they will try to use the rumor of “talks” with you and your administration to undermine the morale of the Ukrainians and make Kyiv believe that you are cutting some deal behind the backs of the Government of Ukraine.
Everyone needs a good nightcap. Ours happens to come in the form of a M-F newsletter that provides the best way to unwind while staying up to speed on national security. Sign up today.
You need to be very weary of all the ways the Kremlin will attempt to manipulate your desire to sign a “peace treaty” or “negotiate a settlement” to advance Russian interests while undermining the interests of others.
Also, history has demonstrated that when faced with a strong and decisive opponent, the Russians will seek diplomatic settlements to crisis situations, but they are also more likely than not to violate the treaties they sign. The Russian proverb “Trust but Verify”, which President Reagan made famous for Americans, is extremely important to remember when contemplating negotiations or agreements with the Russians. Negotiating from a position of strength and being willing to walk away from talks that are not going to benefit the American people, and their allies is also extremely important.
Finally, make sure that the teams you task to engage with the Russians have experience and prior exposure to the Russian style of negotiating.
How to Talk to the Russians
While the current Russian leadership clearly views the U.S .as its “main enemy” and relations with Moscow are extremely strained, this does not mean that you should not leave the door open to some form of dialogue with the Russians. In fact, maintaining a dialogue during tense times is extremely important. Your political opponents may attack you for maintaining some form of engagement and may even accuse you of being “weak on Russia” or “too close to the Russians”. Ignore them and remember that every previous administration has maintained a dialogue with the Russians, and you must do the same.
Understand that the current occupant of the Kremlin and his “team” often prefer to maintain a dialogue using “back channels” and they use their intelligence services to support talks with foreign interlocutors. “Intelligence Diplomacy” can be extremely effective and useful, so I encourage you not afraid to use your own Intelligence Community to maintain a dialogue on critical issues. In fact, consider tasking experienced Intelligence officials to be part of any American teams engaging the Russians.
Understand the Concept of Russian Reciprocity
The Russians are big believers in the saying “an eye for an eye”. They believe deeply in reciprocity and their actions toward the U.S. are often based on this principle. If your administration declares one Russian official working in the U.S. “persona non-grata” and expels that official from the U.S., the Russians will respond in kind. And if the U.S. expels a junior official, the Russians might expel a more senior U.S. official.
Unfortunately, previous administrations have allowed the Russians to secure an advantage over the U.S. because U.S. officials failed to pay enough attention to the principle of “reciprocity” and counter Russian actions with reciprocal responses.
For example, in the past, the Department of State would issue Russian officials traveling to the U.S. one-year, multiple entry visas, while their U.S. counterparts seeking to travel to Russia would be issued visas limited in duration to two to three days. Although your representatives working in Russia were denied access to any Russian officials of real significance or those who had appropriate seniority in the Putin government, Russian officials in the U.S. were allowed to meet regularly with senior U.S. government officials.
In my experience, in those few cases where the U.S. insisted on reciprocity from the Russian side, positive results were achieved. Your administration should adopt and adhere to a strict policy of reciprocity toward Moscow and demand that all departments and agencies under your command follow a policy of reciprocity.
Do not abandon Ukraine
This is obviously one of the most sensitive and important issues your administration will inherit. A terrible war that has been ongoing since 2014, and has resulted in a level of death and destruction in Europe not seen by the world since the Balkans conflict in the 1990’s.
Many Americans are questioning the wisdom of continuing our generous support for Ukraine in its fight for its existence in the face of Russia’s aggression and some are suggesting it is time to end our assistance to Kyiv. However, as the new President, you must understand that ending support for Ukraine now will result in a disaster, not only for the Ukrainians, but for the U.S. itself.
If we fail to continue to stand up to Putin’s aggression in Ukraine, the U.S. will be seen as weak and lacking the fortitude and courage to stand up to a bully. This will send a detrimental message to other allies and potential allies who have been watching the war in Ukraine carefully, some of whom have also been secretly hoping the U.S. will help Ukraine defeat Moscow so they can also stand up to Russian aggression against their own countries.
Turning our backs on Ukraine will send a signal to other autocrats who may believe that they can forcefully take territory from their neighbors without any threat of a punishing response from the U.S.
Finally, turning our backs on the Ukrainians today will deny the U.S. future advantages present in the Ukrainian market and will result in the loss of the many talented and capable Ukrainian citizens and soldiers who will be forced to integrate their talent into the Kremlin’s regime – for use against the U.S. in the future.
Articulate a Vision on Ukraine and be Decisive
One of the main reasons you are inheriting a problem in Ukraine is because the previous administration failed to articulate a clear vision to the American people about why we are supporting Ukraine; what the benefits of such support are for the U.S.; and what our goals are in Ukraine.
I personally have traveled around the U.S. to speak on the topic of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and have heard a common theme from audiences in Kansas, Texas, Virginia, Florida and California. “We understand that helping Ukraine is the right thing to do, and as Americans know we should do the right thing, but Washington is not telling us what the plan is. Washington is not taking the time to explain to us why we are supporting Ukraine and what the consequences are if we fail to continue our support.”
When Americans learn that a large portion of the funds that the U.S. is allocating to support Ukraine are being spent to create manufacturing jobs in the U.S. at Defense plants and are being used to help modernize and rebuild our own defense industrial base after years of neglect, Americans better understand why we should continue support.
Are you Subscribed to The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel on YouTube? Watch The Cipher Brief’s interview with CIA Director Bill Burns as he talks about The Middle East, Russia, China and the thing that keeps him up at night.
Finally, Americans have every right to express fears that our country is involved in another “forever war”. If you demonstrate a more decisive and forward leaning approach toward support for Ukraine, you can help the Ukrainians achieve victory and end this war.
Putin does not have unlimited resources, and his population and economy are suffering from his decision to invade Ukraine. Decisive action from Washington that allows the Ukrainians to win, instead of the current policy of only letting them “not lose”, will open the door to forcing Putin or those around him to seek an end to this conflict. When this day comes, you will be in a position of strength and will be remembered for bringing a just end to an unjust war and successfully standing up to this century’s version of Adolf Hitler.
Spread the Kremlin Thin
One of the most important ways you can assist Ukraine, and other countries that have had their territory occupied by Russia, is to force the Kremlin to contend with challenges from your administration worldwide.
If the Russians are trying to carve out a piece of Africa, challenge them. In Syria, make the Russians decide if they will continue to invest in keeping a military presence there and supporting Bashar al-Assad or whether they will redirect their limited resources to the battlefields of Ukraine.
Push Putin in South and Central America. Punish those regimes that cozy up to the Kremlin. Counter Moscow worldwide. Prove to Putin and his inner circle that we can, and will, invest more in supporting our allies and rolling back the Kremlin’s influence than the Kremlin can invest in undermining the U.S. Again, look to the Reagan administration’s strategy of bringing down the Soviet Union.
Do not underestimate the Russians
Your predecessors have made this mistake too often. As a result, the U.S. and its allies have paid a price. The Russians are determined, cunning and can be ruthless when pursuing their goals, which often include hurting the U.S. and its allies. You need to demand that Americans tasked with countering the Russians be just as dedicated, creative and driven to protect U.S. interests. We can no longer afford to approach the Russian threat as if it is a part-time affair or something that can be done “in addition to other duties”. The Russians surrounding Putin spend 24/7 identifying ways to take advantage of our mistakes and weaknesses. To stop them, we need to be ready to work just as hard and be just as committed to success. Also, avoid the mistake of assuming that the Russians are “like us”. They are not. They have a completely different history and mindset than Americans do. Different values that often clash with our own.
Communicate to the Russian People
The U.S. is not Russia’s enemy and is not seeking to destroy their country or ruin their lives. Historically, the people you represent offered aid and assistance to Russia when it faced famine, economic chaos, and the threat of annihilation by Nazi Germany.
Vladimir Putin has lied to the Russian people about the “threat” from Washington in order to strengthen his own autocratic rule. But it is Putin’s actions, not America’s, that has directly undermined Russia’s peace and stability and resulted in the death of far too many Russians. You need to demonstrate that you are not their enemy and that you want a good relationship and are ready to engage Russia in a positive manner when Russia’s leaders demonstrate that they are ready to respect the interests of the U.S., its allies and their neighbors. Reagan stood up to the dictators that ran the Soviet Union and because he made an effort to communicate to the Russian people, giving them the attention that they crave and do not get from their own government, he was among the most respected U.S. leaders among Russians.
Take the Information War to the Russians
For too many years, the U.S. has allowed your counterpart in the Kremlin to attack American values in the information space, both at home and abroad. Washington’s recognition that Russia is involved in malign influence activities came much too late, after the 2016 Presidential election. But the response has been defensive. Putin has had the benefit of picking when and where he will attack.
To deny him this advantage, you need to task your administration to go on the offensive. To take the fight to Putin and those around him who are promoting harm to the U.S. Once you take that step, Putin will no longer have the luxury of dictating to you where the battle of ideas will take place. Keep the Kremlin disinformation machine off balance by going after that machine.
Do not use Russia as a domestic political bludgeon against your opponents
During the history of U.S. and Russian relations, some U.S. politicians have used Russia as a tool to attack and undermine their political opponents. The results of the McCarthy-era and allegations that one of your predecessors was somehow compromised by, or an agent of, the Kremlin, only hurts the United States and helps Putin in his quest to divide and weaken U.S. society. Accusing your political opponents of being “puppets” of the Kremlin may bring some short-term political dividends, but overall, such tactics hurt the U.S. by distracting limited resources away from focusing on the real threats posed by Russia to U.S. interests.
Be Ready for Rapid Change
During your time in office, you may see significant political change in the Russian Federation. If you pursue a disciplined and courageous policy towards Putin’s regime, you may well see the Russian people finally decide that they have had enough of being taken for granted by their “ruler” and demand his removal.
Putin may also be forced to step down for reasons of age or health. Putin’s hold on power in Russia today is rigid, but brittle and it does not appear that he has put much thought or effort into preparing a successor. Change in Moscow may come suddenly, like it did in 1917 and in 1991.
Realistically, there is a good chance that any change could come rapidly and bring with it violence and a period of chaos. But chance will also present you with an opportunity to establish better relations with those Russians who step up to replace Putin and the void that his departure will create.
Given the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) efforts to turn Russia into a colony of the PRC, giving Beijing access to vast natural resources and direct access to Europe, you cannot afford to cede any future “Russia” to the Chinese.
It would be wise to task your Intelligence Community and national security staff to start studying potential scenarios for future change and engagement with Russia and to start working through scenarios and putting mechanisms, relationships and personnel in place to quickly seize on any future opportunities present by sudden change in Russia. Waiting until Putin’s regime is already in collapse will probably be too late to successfully handle the task of successfully managing such an opportunity. Plan forward and make sure your administration is prepared.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because National Security is Everyone’s Business.
